CC 2015-03-16 Supplemental Info. MEMORANDUM
TO: CITY COUNCIL
FROM: DEBBIE MALICOAT, DIRECTOR OF ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES
SUBJECT: SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION – GENERAL FUND FORECAST
DATE: MARCH 16, 2015
Staff has continued to refine the formatting of the General Fund ten year forecast based on
feedback from Council. Attached for your consideration is an updated version with changes
to address the following issues:
The ending fund balance for FY 2013-14 reflects the fact that there are Capital Improvement
Program (CIP) projects funded through the General Fund that had not completely spent the
project appropriation by the end of the year. Because staff anticipates finishing the CIP, the
funding is still needed in future years to finish the project. When these unspent CIP budgets
are rolled forward to FY 2014-15, the expenditure budget is increased, making it appear that
the General Fund does not have a balanced budget.
Staff has revised the forecast to reflect the ending fund balance that is actually “available” for
appropriation in future years by $846,000 to reflect that this portion of the fund balance is
already committed to finalizing the specific CIP projects. In addition, in the
Revenues/transfers section, staff has added lines to reflect that the source for the rolled
forward CIP as well as additional Council appropriation of one-time funding is the General
Fund reserve. We believe this will more clearly and accurately reflect the flow of funds.
In addition, staff realized that in consolidating and collapsing certain line items, we
inadvertently hid a row on the spreadsheet entitled “Unspent appropriations (incr. fund bal)”
that should be displayed. This line reflects the fact that historically, departments have not
spent their entire appropriations and therefore, the ending fund balance is increased by this
savings. Over the course of the ten year forecast, staff assumes that during the years of
revenue growth, the General Fund will experience 2% expenditure savings, based on
historical trends. However, beginning in FY 2021-22, when the forecast assumes the next
economic cycle turns and budgets get tighter, expenditure savings will not occur. This line
was inadvertently hidden in the previous attachment. Staff apologizes for this oversight.
Attachment(s):
1. General Fund ten year forecast (updated)
General Fund Ten Year Financial Plan
(Minimum 15% Fund Balance Policy/20% Fund Balance Goal)Attachment 1
Actual Projected
In Thousands 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25
REVENUES & OTHER SOURCES
Sales Tax - General 3,401$ 3,399$ 3,535$ 3,659$ 3,768$ 3,881$ 3,920$ 3,960$ 3,841$ 3,649$ 3,393$ 3,393$
Sales Tax - Proposition 172 142 110 114 118 122 126 127 128 124 118 110 110
Property Tax 3,981 4,056 4,218 4,387 4,541 4,699 4,770 4,865 4,719 4,578 4,440 4,440
Transient Occupancy Tax 841 857 891 927 955 983 1,013 1,043 1,043 1,043 1,043 1,043
Business Licenses 86 85 87 89 92 95 98 101 104 107 110 113
Franchise Fees 595 570 581 593 605 617 629 642 655 668 681 695
Real Property Transfer Tax 105 80 82 84 87 89 92 95 98 101 104 107
Motor Vehicle In Lieu 1,268 1,361 1,415 1,472 1,524 1,577 1,601 1,633 1,584 1,536 1,490 1,490
Other Subventions & Grants 161 119 121 123 125 128 130 133 135 138 141 144
Recreation Fees 733 626 642 658 678 698 719 741 763 786 810 835
Permits & Licenses 263 304 312 319 329 339 349 360 371 382 393 405
Community Development Charges 179 175 178 180 184 188 191 195 199 203 207 211
Other Service Charges 27 58 59 60 61 62 63 65 66 67 69 70
Fines & Forfeitures 45 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60
Use of Money & Property 320 295 299 304 310 316 323 329 336 342 349 356
Other Revenues 368 168 103 105 108 112 115 118 122 126 129 133
Transfers
Transfer from Local Sales Tax Fund 150 193 220 225 229 234 238 344 348 353 358 365
Personnel, Cost & Operating Transfers 2,240 2,235 2,240 2,244 2,249 2,305 2,363 2,422 2,483 2,545 2,608 2,674
From reserves - PY unspent CIP 814
From reserves - Old Ranch Rd 32
Total Revenues 14,905 15,587 15,148 15,599 16,019 16,503 16,796 17,229 17,047 16,800 16,496 16,645
EXPENDITURES & OTHER USES
Salary & Benefits 8,521 9,084 9,935 10,270 10,754 11,105 10,815 11,144 11,345 10,600 10,723 10,814
Pre-fund Retiree Medical Costs 200 200 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239
Operating Programs 4,281 5,004 4,851 4,948 5,096 5,249 5,406 5,569 5,708 5,851 5,968 6,027
Reductions in services (200) (200) (200) (200)
Debt Service 192 249 248 248 248 77 77 77 77 77 77 77
Capital Outlay (CIP)455 980 150 200 225 225 225 250 250 250 250 250
Vehicle Replacements 250 260 270 280 290 300 310
Technology Replacements 150 160 170 180 190 200 210
Transfers Out - - - - - - - - - -
Total Expenditures 13,649 15,517 15,422 15,905 16,562 17,295 17,183 17,719 17,879 17,297 17,556 17,727
Revenues Over (Under) Expend.1,256 70 (274) (306) (544) (791) (387) (490) (832) (497) (1,060) (1,082)
286 300 309 322 332 329 339 - - - -
1,256 70
Fund Balance Goal-20% Expenditures 2,730 3,103 3,084 3,181 3,312 3,459 3,437 3,544 3,576 3,459 3,511 3,545
AVAILABLE FUND BALANCE
START OF YEAR 3,687 4,097 4,453 4,479 4,482 4,260 3,801 3,743 3,592 2,760 2,262 1,202
END OF YEAR 4,097 4,453 4,479 4,482 4,260 3,801 3,743 3,592 2,760 2,262 1,202 120
FUND BALANCE POLICY - Excess/(Gap)1,367 1,349 1,394 1,301 948 342 306 48 (816) (1,197) (2,309) (3,425)
Ending Fund Balance %30%29%29%28%26%22%22%20%15%13%7%1%
TEN YEAR FINANCIAL PLAN
Unspent appropriations (incr. fund bal)
Total Operating Excess/(Deficit)
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n Retiree Medical Cost is based on Actuarial estimates (not including FCFA ARC)
PROJECTION FACTORS 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population 1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%
Housing Units 1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%
Inflation 1.5%1.5%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
Compound Pop & Inflation 2.5%2.5%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%
KEY REVENUES
Sales Tax 4.0%3.5%3.0%3.0%1.0%1.0%-3.0%-5.0%-7.0%0.0%
Property Tax 4.0%4.0%3.5%3.5%1.5%2.0%-3.0%-3.0%-3.0%0.0%
TOT 4.0%4.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Business License/Tax
Franchise Fees 2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
Motor Vehicle In Lieu 4.0%4.0%3.5%3.5%1.5%2.0%-3.0%-3.0%-3.0%0.0%
Development Review Fees
Recreation Fees
EXPENDITURES
Part Time Salary & Non-PERS Benefits 2.0%2.0%2.5%2.5%3.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%1.0%
Operating Programs 1.5%2.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%2.5%2.5%2.0%1.0%
Debt Service
2014-15 Projection Plus Compound Population and Inflation
2014-15 Projection Plus Compound Population and Inflation
Based on Lease Purchase Contract for Vehicle Replacement
TEN YEAR FINANCIAL PLAN PROJECTIONS
2014-15 Projection Plus Compound Population and Inflation
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