HomeMy WebLinkAboutCC 2025-04-08_11b General Plan UpdateItem 11.b.
MEMORANDUM
TO: City Council
FROM: Brian Pedrotti, Director of Community Development
BY: Andrew Perez, Planning Manager
SUBJECT: Adoption of a Land Use Scenario for the General Plan Update
DATE: April 8, 2025
RECOMMENDATION:
1) Adopt a preferred land use scenario for the General Plan Update, or a hybrid thereof;
and
2) Find that the adoption of a land use scenario is not a project subject to the California
Environmental Quality Act (“CEQA”) because adoption has no potential to result in either
a direct, or reasonably foreseeable indirect, physical change in the environment. (State
CEQA Guidelines, §§ 15060 (c)(2) and (3), 15378.).
IMPACT ON FINANCIAL AND PERSONNEL RESOURCES:
The financial and personnel impacts associated with the recommendation of a preferred
land use scenario are included in the budget for the comprehensive General Plan Update.
BACKGROUND:
Adopting a preferred land use scenario for the General Plan Update represents the
conclusion of the project’s fifth phase. The previous phase resulted in the selection of a
vision statement1 and guiding principles for the project. The preferred land use scenario,
along with community input and the City’s Vision Statement and Guiding Principles
(prepared during Phase 4), will then guide the rest of the General Plan Update, including
policy and program development and environmental analysis.
At this critical phase of the project, there were extensive outreach efforts to obtain
community input. An online mapping exercise was made available in October and
November 2024. Respondents were asked to identify areas, or specific sites, within the
City where land use changes are appropriate and areas where growth should, or should
not, occur. Specifically, the mapping exercise asked the community to identify their
1 https://planarroyogrande.com/images/AGGPU_V-
GP_V1_ENGLISH%20AND%20SPANISH_2024%2008%2016%20MG.pdf
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Item 11.b.
City Council
Adoption of a Land Use Scenario for the General Plan Update
April 8, 2025
Page 2
preferred land use for three focus areas that were identified through previous public
outreach efforts. Those three focus areas are the E. Grand Avenue corridor, the North
Fair Oaks agricultural parcels, and the Fredrick’s property. Changes could include
increases in residential density, changes in land uses (residential, commercial,
institutional, etc.), or development intensity.
Postcards were mailed to every postal customer in the city to publicize and encourage
participation in the survey. Community members who signed up to receive notifications
(approximately 320) about the project were also sent an email about the survey.
Additionally, staff was present at the Soto Sports Complex on Saturday, November 9,
2024, during the AYSO Tournament to educate residents about the survey and project in
general. Finally, the City’s social media accounts also posted about the survey.
Feedback from these outreach efforts directly informed the development of four land use
scenarios for consideration by the community, Planning Commission, and City Council:
Scenario 1: Existing General Plan
Scenario 2: Infill Focus
Scenario 3: Residential and Complimentary Uses Focus; and
Scenario 4: Commercial Focused Approach.
ANALYSIS OF ISSUES:
The City Council is being asked to adopt a preferred land use scenario based on the
scenarios described in this staff report and the Land Use Scenarios Memorandum2
(Attachment 1), public comment, and the Planning Commission’s recommendation. The
preferred land use scenario may be one of the four scenarios presented or a hybrid
scenario that pulls select features from the various land use scenarios. The preferred land
use scenario can be thought of as the City’s preferred land use and growth strategy for
the duration of the General Plan. It will be used to establish a new land use map and
assign a land use designation for every parcel within city boundarie s. This designation
identifies the type, intensity, and general distribution of uses of land for housing, business,
industry, open space, education, public facilities, and other categories of public and
private uses. The map becomes the general framework and road map to allow the drafting
of the various policy elements of the General Plan.
Land Use Scenarios
The primary distinctions between these scenarios, which can also be thought of as growth
strategies, are the proposed densities across residential land use designations, the
locations of future developments, and differences in mixed-use and commercial land use
designations. The statistics included with each scenario indicate the growth potential if
the City were developed to its maximum under those densities.
2
https://planarroyogrande.com/images/AGGPU_Scenarios%20Analysis%20Memo_Clean_2025%2002%2
004.pdf
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Item 11.b.
City Council
Adoption of a Land Use Scenario for the General Plan Update
April 8, 2025
Page 3
Scenario 1 serves as the baseline scenario, maintaining the status quo with no changes
to the existing General Plan land uses, city limits, or sphere of influence. No modifications
to current land use designations would be updated except to comply with changes in State
law, such as to meet Regional Housing Needs Assessment numbers, remove housing
constraints, or other updates consistent with the current Housing Element. It reflects how
the city would evolve over the next 20-30 years without significant adjustments to
accommodate growth or emerging trends.
Outcomes at Full Buildout:
Population: 23,650 residents
Jobs: 15,407
Single-Family Units: 9,052
Multi-Family Units: 3,103
Scenario 2 emphasizes densification within the existing city boundaries, focusing on infill
development of vacant and underutilized land to increase housing and population
capacity while preserving agricultural and open space lands with no changes to their
current designations. No city expansion or annexation is proposed under this scenario.
To accommodate additional housing units, this scenario proposes to increase maximum
densities for residential and mixed-use designations (e.g., from 25 du/ac to 30 du/ac for
Mixed Use), and introduces a new Corridor Mixed Use designation that would allow even
greater residential densities. This scenario offers the highest population and housing
growth, with modest job creation, and avoids land consumption by focusing on infill
development.
Outcomes at Full Buildout:
Population: 34,325 residents (+10,675 from Scenario 1)
Jobs: 18,507 (+3,100 from Scenario 1)
Single-Family Units: 11,167 (+2,114 from Scenario 1)
Multi-Family Units: 6,787 (+3,684 from Scenario 1)
Scenario 3 would permit the conversion of existing agricultural land within city limits to
residential uses and complementary amenities (e.g., parks, open space) to accommodate
anticipated growth. rather than increasing densities allowed in most other land use
designations. Development within the existing agriculturally zoned areas would require a
specific plan to guide development within the North Fair Oaks and Frederick’s focus
areas. This scenario also introduces a new Corridor Mixed Use designation (30 du/ac,
2.0 FAR) for higher-density infill throughout the E. Grand Avenue corridor.
Outcomes at Full Buildout:
Population: 26,801 residents (+3,151 from Scenario 1)
Jobs: 15,780 (+373 from Scenario 1)
Single-Family Units: 9,798 (+746 from Scenario 1)
Multi-Family Units: 4,124 (+1,020 from Scenario 1)
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Item 11.b.
City Council
Adoption of a Land Use Scenario for the General Plan Update
April 8, 2025
Page 4
Scenario 4 prioritizes economic growth by expanding commercial and employment-
generating land uses within existing boundaries, primarily through the conversion of
agricultural land via Specific Plans. Similar to Scenario 3, specific plans would be required
to guide development of existing agricultural lands; however, in this scenario the land
uses would emphasize commercial and mixed -use development. Increased density for
commercial development and residential development in mixed-use zones would also be
included in this scenario.
Outcomes at Full Buildout:
Population: 31,607 residents (+7,957 from Scenario 1)
Jobs: 28,199 (+12,792 from Scenario 1)
Single-Family Units: 10,770 (+1,718 from Scenario 1)
Multi-Family Units: 5,562 (+2,458 from Scenario 1)
These scenarios provide a spectrum of options for the City to balance growth,
accommodate housing and economic development needs, and land preservation. The
focus areas and land use scenarios are described in greater detail in the Land Use
Scenarios Memorandum.
Public Outreach and Preferences
After the four land use scenarios were developed, the project team sought public input on
its preferences. The scenarios were introduced at the community workshop held on
February 5, 2025. The objective of the workshop was to introduce various land use
scenarios, along with their anticipated impacts on jobs, housing, and the built
environment. At the workshop, attendees were asked to select their preferred land use
scenario. Those who supported Scenarios 3 and 4 were asked to identify their preferred
combination and location of land uses within the associated focus areas. After the
workshop, an online survey was released to solicit feedback on each of the scenarios for
community members who were unable to attend.
The community’s preferred scenario is essentially a hybrid of Scenarios 1, 2, and 3.
Intensification of the development along the East Grand Corridor was preferred by the
largest proportion of respondents (39%) because this scenario would increase both
housing and commercial development without creating sprawl or requiring development
of existing agricultural areas. The other three scenarios received less support (between
18-23%), with similar amounts of support to each other from respondents.
Scenario 1 received a majority of the support from respondents (54%) with regards to the
North Fair Oaks focus area. Supporters emphasized the importance of preserving prime
farmland for future generations, food production, and environmental sustainability.
Commenters also highlight Arroyo Grande’s agricultural heritage and the value of
maintaining its rural character, scenic beauty, and historical ties to farming. It should be
noted that the property owner of the North Fair Oaks focus area has indicated that they
are not looking to continue the history of farming on the property. Scenario 3, which
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Item 11.b.
City Council
Adoption of a Land Use Scenario for the General Plan Update
April 8, 2025
Page 5
proposes residential development, received the second most support because of the
opportunity to provide a range of housing options and connectivity to E. Grand Avenue to
the north and the Village to the east.
A majority of respondents were supportive of Scenario 3 and the potential for residential
development for the Frederick’s focus area, albeit with differing opinions on the residential
density. Those in favor of this scenario were enthusiastic about the potential to expand
the City’s parks and recreational facilities that could accompany the residential
development. A summary of the feedback received at the community workshop and from
the online surveys is described in the Land Use Scenarios Workshop and Survey Results
memorandum (Attachment 2).
General Plan Citizens Advisory Group (CAG)
The CAG consists of five residents from a wide range of professional backgrounds, one
Planning Commissioner, and one City Council Member. The CAG meets approximately
one time per month to review administrative drafts of deliverables and be consulted during
initial policy development. The CAG met on two occasions to discuss the proposed land
use scenarios, on February 24, and March 10, 2025. The focus areas and the
corresponding four land use scenarios were presented to the group during the February
meeting. At the following meeting, CAG members identified their preferred land use
scenario. There was a strong preference for a hybrid scenario consisting of Scenarios 2
and 3. The CAG identified the redevelopment potential for the E. Grand Avenue corridor
as a whole, as modeled by Scenario 2. The group was also largely supportive of Scenario
3, although there were varying opinions about what future residential development should
entail. Aspects of Scenario #4 were also favored, particularly the emphasis on the
redevelopment of the E. Grand Avenue corridor and the potential of providing small
commercial/industrial incubator spaces. The one area of consensus was support for the
inclusion of recreational facilities to support future development, and the city at large.
Planning Commission Recommendation
The land use scenarios were presented to the Planning Commission at its meeting on
March 18, 20253. The Planning Commission’s recommendation is a hybrid of Scenarios
2 and 3, which reads:
The recommended scenario emphasizes densification within the existing city
boundaries, focusing on infill development of vacant and underutilized land to
increase housing and population capacity. This scenario introduces a new Corridor
Mixed Use designation that allows higher residential densities. This scenario would
also permit the conversion of existing agricultural land within city limits to
residential uses and complementary amenities, such as parks and op en space.
Development within the agriculturally zoned areas would require a specific plan to
guide development within the North Fair Oaks and Frederick’s focus areas.
3 https://pub-arroyogrande.escribemeetings.com/filestream.ashx?DocumentId=14125
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Item 11.b.
City Council
Adoption of a Land Use Scenario for the General Plan Update
April 8, 2025
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The Planning Commission recommended scenario would increase densities across the
spectrum of residential land use designations and more intense commercial development
by increasing the allowable floor-area ratio and lot coverage standards.
Next Steps
Staff is requesting that the City Council identify their preferred scenario or hybrid thereof
based on the various input provided through initial community surveys, workshops, online
comments, pop-up events, Citizens Advisory Group, and Planning Commission. The
preferred land use scenario will be the foundation of the new General Plan elements,
while also being influenced by the vision statement and guiding principles. The next phase
of the project consists of drafting the goals, policies, and implementation strategies that
will serve as the City’s blueprint for growth for the duration of the General Plan. This phase
will include community meetings to address specific topics such as safety, economic
development, and environmental justice, and culminate with a community workshop to
unveil the draft General Plan.
ALTERNATIVES:
The following alternatives are provided for the Council’s consideration:
1. Adopt a preferred land use scenario for the General Plan Update, or a hybrid
thereof; or
2. Provide other direction to staff.
ADVANTAGES:
Selection of a preferred land use scenario will guide the development of General Plan’s
goals, policies, and implementation strategies, which will ultimately dictate how many
people could feasibly live in the city and guide the growth of the local economy.
DISADVANTAGES:
The preferred land use scenario may result in the development of undeveloped
agricultural land to accommodate anticipated growth in the housing and economic
sectors.
ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW:
The adoption of a land use scenario is not a project subject to the California
Environmental Quality Act (“CEQA”) because adoption has no potential to result in either
a direct, or reasonably foreseeable indirect, physical change in the environment. (State
CEQA Guidelines, §§ 15060 (c)(2) and (3), 15378.)
PUBLIC NOTIFICATION AND COMMENTS:
The Agenda was posted at City Hall and on the City’s website in accordance with
Government Code Section 54954.2. An email has been sent to everyone who has signed
up to receive project notifications through the project's website,
www.planarroyogrande.com.
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Item 11.b.
City Council
Adoption of a Land Use Scenario for the General Plan Update
April 8, 2025
Page 7
ATTACHMENTS:
1. Land Use Scenarios Memorandum
2. Land Use Scenarios Workshop and Survey Results Memorandum
Page 183 of 220
1415 20TH STREET
SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA 95811
(916) 446-0522
FAX (916) 446-7520
mintier@mintierharnish.com
www.mintierharish.com
1
M E M O R A N D U M
TO: Brian Pedrotti, Director of Community Development, City of Arroyo Grande
Andrew Perez, Planning Manager, City of Arroyo Grande
FROM: Michael Gibbons, Project Manager | Mintier Harnish
CC: Brent Gibbons, Nikki Zanchetta, Hannah Woolsey | Mintier Harnish
DATE: February 5, 2025
RE: Land Use Scenarios Analysis
Introduction
Phase 5 of the General Plan Update project focuses on analyzing land use and growth scenarios. This
analysis aims to create an updated land use diagram for the General Plan, reflecting the community’s
vision for the next 20 to 30 years.
The first step in this strategy involved early community engagement through an interactive mapping
questionnaire and direct outreach at City events. Feedback from these efforts directly informed the
development of four land use scenarios. These concepts will help guide the creation of land use diagram
maps, providing City staff and the community with a clear understanding of the implications of different
land use approaches.
How Should This Memo Be Used?
This memorandum presents a comparative analysis of the anticipated changes to jobs and housing
capacity and the built environment under each scenario. This analysis evaluates land use scenarios using
various indicators to help community members and decision-makers understand the implications of
development under each scenario. Decisions about future land uses will influence how many people could
feasibly live in the city and guide the location of jobs and businesses.
Decision-makers will weigh the costs and benefits of each scenario presented in this memorandum and
select a “preferred land use scenario.” The preferred land use scenario may be one of the three scenarios
or a combination of features from each. The preferred land use scenario, along with the citywide vision
statement and guiding principles, will then guide the preparation of General Plan goals, policies, and
implementation programs.
The remainder of this memorandum presents the preliminary analysis of the developed land use scenario
concepts to prompt feedback from City staff, the Planning Commission, and City Council.
ATTACHMENT 1
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Memorandum to the City of Arroyo Grande
City of Arroyo Grande Geneal Plan update
Land Use Scenarios Analysis
Wednesday, February 5, 2025
2
Community Feedback and Key Topics
The Consultant Team gathered community feedback on key focus areas across the city to identify
opportunities for land use redesignations and areas of future development. This feedback was collected
using the Maptionnaire platform, which engages participants through interactive, map-based questions.
A total of 354 survey responses with meaningful data were gathered, including both submitted surveys
and partially completed ones where respondents answered at least one question but did not submit the
survey.
The demographic profile of respondents shows that over half were over the age of 55 and/or reported an
annual income of $100,000 or more. Furthermore, nearly 75 percent of respondents identified as
white/European American, while approximately five percent identified as Hispanic American/Latinx.
A thorough review of the survey feedback revealed several key topics and community priorities. Below
are the most prominent themes identified from the responses.
Recreation, Open Space, and Agricultural Land Preservation
• Open space and recreational opportunities for families and high school students
• Preservation of productive agricultural land
• Preserve, enhance, and create new multi-use trail systems
• Develop additional recreation-oriented land uses and community facilities
Housing Needs
• Create more housing capacity for different housing types, including:
o Starter homes
o Townhomes
o Denser, mixed-use developments
o Multifamily
• Improve availability of affordable housing
• Create cohesive neighborhoods
• Reduce impacts to traffic
Commercial, Retail, and Industrial Developments
• Commercial infill developments in vacant/underutilized properties
• Create welcoming, lively retail corridors
• Mixed-use developments, including retail, restaurants, entertainment venues, offices, and
residential uses
• Bring some light industrial uses to city
Active Transportation
• Improve bicycle infrastructure
• Improve pedestrian infrastructure and safety, especially along major corridors and in the
Village
• Expand public transportation options
• Lane reduction and roadway reconfiguration to reduce car speeds
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Memorandum to the City of Arroyo Grande
City of Arroyo Grande Geneal Plan update
Land Use Scenarios Analysis
Wednesday, February 5, 2025
3
City Expansion
• Approximately 40 percent of respondents were in favor of expanding the City limits or
Sphere of Influence. Approximately 33 percent of respondents were not in favor of
expansion and 27 percent were undecided.
• Encourage denser infill development to reduce need to expand City limits
• If the City expands, ideal areas for expansion include:
o Agricultural areas south of the city, near the Arroyo Grande High School
o Northeast of the city
o Southeast of the Frederick property
• Preference for expansion into non-prime or non-productive agricultural land
• Utility service expansion through annexation
Focus Areas
As outlined in the introduction of this memorandum, a key step in the General Plan Update process is to
analyze various scenarios that will eventually lead to the selection of a “preferred land use scenario.” To
help guide the creation of the various scenarios to be developed for this key step, a series of “focus
areas” were developed. These focus areas help to identify sections of the community that are likely to
change based on the needs and expectations of residents. Having focus areas is important because it
narrows down where likely changes should be prioritized and provides the City with a starting point to
develop policies to support these changes.
Focus Areas Overview
Three focus areas were identified for the Arroyo Grande scenarios process. These areas were selected
based on their potential to accommodate growth and development over the planning period and were
informed by initial feedback from earlier project engagement. Each focus area has unique
characteristics, opportunities, and challenges in regards to future development potential. Analyzing each
of the scenarios in these focus areas will identify the potential outcomes in the context of each focus
area. These three focus areas apply across all four scenarios, as shown in Figure 1. Below, each focus
area is described along with public feedback received regarding development preferences.
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Memorandum to the City of Arroyo Grande
City of Arroyo Grande Geneal Plan update
Land Use Scenarios Analysis
Wednesday, February 5, 2025
4
Figure 1. City of Arroyo Grande Land Use Scenarios Focus Areas
East Grand Corridor Focus Area
The East Grand Corridor focus area is located within city limits, in the central and western portions of
the city. Currently, this area’s primary land uses include commercial, office, mixed-use, light industrial,
some multi-family residential, and some single-family residential. This focus area primarily includes
developed properties along Grand Avenue with some vacant and underutilized parcels, offering the
potential for a variety of different development and redevelopment patterns.
Just under 90 percent of survey respondents were in favor of redevelopment in this focus area.
Preferred types of developments include:
• Improved pedestrian and bicyclist infrastructure to see this area become more lively,
vibrant/engaging, walkable, and safe
• Lower car speeds and lane reduction
• Mix of denser infill developments, including retail (small and big businesses), restaurants, live
music venues, office, mixed use, and multi-family residential
• Prioritize developments in vacant and underutilized properties
• Affordable housing options, including single family homes, multi-family, and tiny homes
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Memorandum to the City of Arroyo Grande
City of Arroyo Grande Geneal Plan update
Land Use Scenarios Analysis
Wednesday, February 5, 2025
5
Some respondents noted various considerations for future developments in this area. Some expressed
that this area needs to be "spruced up" and made to feel like a cohesive corridor/neighborhood. Others
noted that densifying in this area of town could allow the population to grow without the need to
expand the City limits.
Figure 2: East Grand Corridor Focus Area
North Fair Oaks Focus Area
The North Fair Oaks focus area is located in the southern portion of the city, across from Arroyo Grande
High School and southwest of the Village. Currently, this area’s main land uses include agriculture and
some single-family residential. The working agricultural land in this focus area could accommodate
future development which could complement the existing residential and commercial developments in
the surrounding area.
Just over half of survey respondents were in favor of redevelopment in this focus area. Preferred types
of developments include:
• Open space and recreational uses for families and high schoolers
• Developments should focus on youth and high schooler needs (due to proximity to schools)
• Improve pedestrian, bicyclist, and transit options/infrastructure
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Memorandum to the City of Arroyo Grande
City of Arroyo Grande Geneal Plan update
Land Use Scenarios Analysis
Wednesday, February 5, 2025
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• If housing is developed, respondents have a preference for starter single-family homes, dense
mixed-use developments, multi-family residences, and co-housing
However, some respondents noted potential issues and considerations for future developments in this
area. Some expressed that existing, productive agricultural land should be preserved as much as
possible to keep this aspect of the city's heritage. Others noted that increased traffic should be
mitigated if developments occur in this area.
Figure 3: North Fair Oaks Focus Area
Frederick Focus Area
The Frederick focus area is located in the eastern portion of the city, southeast of residential
neighborhoods and north of Highway 101. Currently, this area’s main land uses include agriculture,
single-family residential, and some public facilities. The undeveloped land in this focus area could
accommodate developments that complement the existing surrounding residential neighborhoods.
Several respondents of the mapping survey noted that the agricultural areas just north of the current
Frederick Focus Area boundary could be incorporated into this focus area.
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Memorandum to the City of Arroyo Grande
City of Arroyo Grande Geneal Plan update
Land Use Scenarios Analysis
Wednesday, February 5, 2025
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Just under 75 percent of survey respondents were in favor of redevelopment in this focus area.
Preferred types of developments include:
• Mix of affordable and middle class housing (including small single family, townhome, and
multifamily)
• Open space, park, recreation, and trails, including recreational uses for youth/high schoolers
• Some interest in bringing light industrial uses to this area
• Some interest in bringing retail to area, assuming that existing, vacant retail in this area is filled
• If city needs to expand, some respondents believe that this is the best area for expansion (in
non-prime ag. areas)
However, some respondents noted potential issues and considerations for future developments in this
area. There was a significant concern over developing and losing open space, with some expressing a
desire to restrict any new developments in this area. Additionally, some expressed concern that housing
developed in this area would be costly due to costs incurred from expanding utilities and other City
services.
Figure 4: Frederick Focus Area
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Memorandum to the City of Arroyo Grande
City of Arroyo Grande Geneal Plan update
Land Use Scenarios Analysis
Wednesday, February 5, 2025
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Land Use Scenarios
This memorandum highlights concepts for land use changes in three identified focus areas and overall
preferences for citywide growth and development. Based on community feedback, four land use scenarios
were developed: Scenario 1: Existing General Plan, Scenario 2: Infill Focus, Scenario 3: Residential and
Complimentary Uses Focus, and Scenario 4: Commercial Focused Approach. This section provides a
general concept of each proposed scenario, including a description of land use designations, development
standards, and allowed land uses.
Table 1 offers a summary of the land use designations and their corresponding density/floor area ratio
(FAR) for non-residential designations under each scenario scenario. Under Scenarios 2, 3, and 4, the
Mobile Home Park (MHP) designation is proposed to be eliminated and collapsed into the Medium High
Density Multi-Family Residential (MHD) designation. Additionally, under these same scenarios, the Very
Low Density Single Family Residential (SFR-VLD) designation is proposed to be eliminated and collapsed
into the Low Density Single Family Residential (SFR-LD) designation. A new Parks and Recreation (PR)
General Plan land use designation is proposed to designate all current and future parks and recreational
facilities within the city. A new, higher-intensity mixed use designation named “Corridor Mixed Use” is
proposed under Scenarios 2 and 3.
The primary distinctions between these Scenarios are the proposed densities across all remaining
residential land use designations, the proposed locations of future developments, and differences in
mixed use and commercial land use designations. Scenario 2 proposes the highest increases in allowed
densities for new developments, particularly for residential and mixed use land use designations. These
increases in density would allow the city to accommodate infill developments and grow its population
without the need to develop agricultural or open space lands within city limits. Scenario 3 proposes no
changes to a majority of the existing General Plan land use designations and instead proposes to
accommodate new residential units and complimentary uses through specific plans for various
agricultural and open space parcels in the city. Scenario 4 proposes to increase the densities of certain
designations, primarily commercial ones, to expand commercial and employment-generating land uses.
Similarly to Scenario 3, Scenario 4 proposes a specific plan process for various agricultural and open space
parcels in the city.
Table 1: Scenarios Land Use Designations
Designation
Maximum Density
Allowed Land Uses in
Scenario Scenarios Scenario 1:
Existing
General Plan
Scenario 2:
Infill Focus
Scenario 3:
Residential and
Complimentary
Uses Focus
Scenario 4:
Commercial
Focused
Approach
Agriculture (Ag) 1 du/10 ac Agriculture, single-family
Conservation/Open
Space (C/OS)
1 du/20 ac
1 du/10 ac Open space, preserve
Parks and
Recreation (PR) N/A - Parks and recreation
(New land use designation)
Very Low Density
Single Family
Residential
(SFR-VLD)
1 du/2.5 ac Eliminated – collapsed into SFR-LD Estate-size lot, single-family
Low Density Single
Family Residential
(SFR-LD)
1 du/1.5 ac
1 du/ac 1 du/ac Low density, large lot, single-
family
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Memorandum to the City of Arroyo Grande
City of Arroyo Grande Geneal Plan update
Land Use Scenarios Analysis
Wednesday, February 5, 2025
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Table 1: Scenarios Land Use Designations
Designation
Maximum Density
Allowed Land Uses in
Scenario Scenarios Scenario 1:
Existing
General Plan
Scenario 2:
Infill Focus
Scenario 3:
Residential and
Complimentary
Uses Focus
Scenario 4:
Commercial
Focused
Approach
Low Medium
Density Single
Family Residential
(SFR-LM)
2.5 du/ac 4 du/ac No change* 4 du/ac Moderate sized lot, single-
family
Medium Density
Single Family
Residential
(SFR-MD)
4.5 du/ac 8 du/ac No change* 6 du/ac Common sized lots, single-
family
Multi-Family
Residential (MFR) 9 du/ac Eliminated – collapsed into MHD No change* Multifamily, planned unit
developments,
condominiums, and senior
housing
Mobile home parks and
subdivisions
Medium High
Density Multi-
Family Residential
(MHD)
9 du/ac 12 du/ac No change*
Townhouse/Condo 9 du/ac Eliminated – collapsed into MHD No change*
Mobile Home Park
(MHP) 12 du/ac Eliminated – collapsed into MHD
High Density Multi-
Family Residential
(HD)
14 du/ac 16 du/ac No change*
Single-family attached,
multifamily attached, and
senior housing
Very High Density
Multi-Family
Residential (VHD)
25 du/ac 28 du/ac No change* Very high density multifamily,
senior housing
Mixed Use (MU) 25 du/ac
30 du/ac
FAR: 2.0
Lot Coverage:
80%
No change*
28 du/ac
FAR: 1.75
Lot Coverage:
80%
Mixed uses
Corridor Mixed Use
(CMU) N/A
36 du/ac
FAR: 2.5
Lot Coverage:
100%
30 du/ac
FAR: 2.0
Lot Coverage:
80%
N/A Mixed uses
(New land use designation)
Village Core (VC) 15 du/ac
26 du/ac
FAR: 2.0
Lot Coverage:
75%
No change* Mixed uses
Office (O) 0.5 FAR
FAR: 2.0
Lot Coverage:
100%
Mixed uses
Regional
Commercial (RC) -
FAR: 2.0
Lot Coverage:
100%
Regional commercial
* The corresponding scenario proposes no changes from the existing standard.
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Scenario 1: Existing General Plan
Scenario 1 serves as a baseline scenario, providing a benchmark for evaluating the impacts of other
proposed scenarios. Under this scenario, no changes are made to the existing General Plan land uses,
City limits, or Sphere of Influence. While any existing policies in the General Plan would be updated to
reflect changes in State law, General Plan land use designations, development standards, and zoning
would remain unchanged.
This Scenario is critical for analysis as it provides a snapshot of how the city would evolve if no major
adjustments were made to accommodate growth or address emerging trends. It assumes the
continuation of current development patterns, infrastructure, and service provisions, offering a clear
understanding of the city's trajectory over the next 20 to 30 years. By comparing Scenario 1 to the other
scenarios, stakeholders can assess the potential benefits and trade-offs of different strategies for
managing growth, enhancing community character, and addressing infrastructure needs.
Figure 5. Scenario 1: Existing General Plan
RESIDENTS = 23,650 SINGLE FAMILY UNITS = 9,052
JOBS = 15,407 MULTI-FAMILY UNITS = 3,103
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Scenario 2: Infill Focus
Scenario 2 is an infill-focused scenario that encourages densification of the existing built environment,
development of existing vacant and underutilized land in the city, and the preservation of productive
agricultural land and open space. Proposed development in Scenario 2 would rely on the city’s existing
infrastructure and concentrate on increasing development intensities to increase capacity in existing
developed areas. Scenario 2 encourages the development of a variety of higher density housing types,
mixed-uses, commercial uses, and other infill development. This Scenario does not propose any city
expansion or annexation of land and assumes there will be no development beyond the City’s existing
Sphere of Influence within the upcoming planning period. Under this Scenario, the City would prioritize
improvements to bicyclist and pedestrian infrastructure that would improve the safety of these active
transportation modes. As a part of this, the City would prioritize lane reduction and roadway
reconfiguration projects to reduce car speeds and improve safety along major corridors. Key features of
Scenario 2 include:
• Floor Area Ratio (FAR) Standards. Establish floor area ratio (FAR) standards for non-
residential, mixed-use development to increase intensity
• Increase Density. Increase the maximum density/intensity for the following land use
designations:
Single Family Residential (Low Density)
Single Family Residential (Low Medium Density)
Single Family Residential (Medium Density)
Medium High Density Multi-Family Residential (MHD)
High Density Multi-Family Residential (HD)
Very High Density Multi-Family Residential (VHD)
Mixed Use (MU)
Village Core (VC)
• New Mixed-Use Land Use Designation. Create a new Corridor Mixed Use
designation with focus on higher-density, infill style development and
corresponding development and design standards
• Preserve Agriculture. Preservation of existing agriculture land and open space
• Keep Existing Agricultural Standards. No change to the Agriculture and
Conservation or Open Space land use designations
• Land Use Flexibility. Incentivize and allow for a greater flexibility in allowed land
uses so properties can accommodate a multitude of uses
• Complete Streets. Design roads to accommodate all users, including pedestrians,
cyclists, and public transit.
Key Takeaways: At full buildout...
1. Highest population growth. Scenario 2 has the highest capacity to increase the city’s
population.
2. Largest housing growth. Scenario 2 offers the highest capacity to increase the city's
stock of both single- and multi-family housing units.
3. Modest job creation. Scenario 2 creates some jobs; however, Scenario 4 creates a much
larger capacity for employment opportunities.
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Figure 6. Scenario 2: Infill Focus
RESIDENTS = 34,325
+ 10,675 from Existing General Plan
+ 7,524 from Scenario 3
+ 2,718 from Scenario 4
SINGLE FAMILY UNITS = 11,167
+2,114 from Existing General Plan
+ 1,369 from Scenario 3
+ 397 from Scenario 4
JOBS = 18,507
+ 3,100 from Existing General Plan
+ 2,727 from Scenario 3
- 9,692 from Scenario 4
MULTI-FAMILY UNITS = 6,787
+ 3,684 from Existing General Plan
+ 2,663 from Scenario 3
+ 1,225 from Scenario 4
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Scenario 3: Residential and Complimentary Uses Focus
Scenario 3 focuses on the conversion of existing agricultural land within the City limits to accommodate
new residential development and growth. Under Scenario 3, agricultural and open space land
conversion will require the expansion of utilities, services, and infrastructure to accommodate any
future development. Scenario 3 does not propose any city expansion or annexation of land and assumes
there will be no development beyond the City’s existing Sphere of Influence within the upcoming
planning period. This Scenario does not propose increasing the density or intensity of most existing
General Plan land use designations. Scenario 3 encourages development at existing intensities,
developing additional housing, and increasing opportunities for retail, commercial, office, and other
employment-based land uses. Key features of Scenario 3 include:
• Specific Plans. Require the development of a Specific Plan to guide development in
the North Fair Oaks and Frederick focus areas
• Discourage Density Increases. Most existing General Plan land use designations’
densities and intensities do not change
• New Mixed-Use Land Use Designation. Potential to create a new Corridor Mixed
Use designation with focus on higher-density, infill style development and
corresponding development standards
• Convert Agricultural Land. Conversion of existing agriculture land to residential land
uses with a mix of open space and parks.
• Complete Streets. Design roads to accommodate all users, including pedestrians,
cyclists, and public transit.
Key Takeaways: At full buildout...
1. Moderate population growth. Scenario 3 offers some capacity to increase the city’s
population.
2. Moderate housing growth. Scenario 3 increases the number of housing units from the
existing General Plan, but offers far less housing than Scenarios 2 and 4.
3. Minor job creation. Scenario 3 maintains a similar capacity for job creation as the
existing General Plan.
RESIDENTS = 26,801
+ 3,151 from Existing General Plan
- 7,524 from Scenario 2
- 4,806 from Scenario 4
SINGLE FAMILY UNITS = 9,798
+ 746 from Existing General Plan
- 1,369 from Scenario 2
- 972 from Scenario 4
JOBS = 15,780
+ 373 from Existing General Plan
- 2,727 from Scenario 2
- 12,419 from Scenario 4
MULTI-FAMILY UNITS = 4,124
+ 1,020 from Existing General Plan
- 2,663 from Scenario 2
- 1,438 from Scenario 4
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Figure 7. Scenario 3: Residential and Complimentary Uses Focus
Scenario 4: Commercial Focused Approach
Scenario 4 prioritizes expanding opportunities for commercial and employment-generating land uses.
This approach seeks to enhance economic growth, reduce reliance on neighboring employment centers,
and diversify the City’s economic base. Growth is focused within the city’s existing boundaries and
Sphere of Influence, with no annexation proposed during the upcoming planning period. New
development and growth is supported through the conversion of existing agricultural land within the
City limits under a specific plan. The strategy emphasizes targeted land use changes and density
increases to attract businesses and create a vibrant local economy. Key features of Scenario 4 include:
• Specific Plans. Require the development of a Specific Plan to guide development in
the North Fair Oaks and Frederick focus areas
• Floor Area Ratio (FAR) Standards. Establish a floor area ratio (FAR) and lot coverage
standards for non-residential development
• Encourage Denser Commercial Development. Increase the allowed intensity of
existing commercial land use designations
• Convert Agricultural Land. Conversion of existing agricultural and open space land
to more developed, urban land uses
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• Strategic Mixed-Use Nodes. Designate key areas within the city for mixed-use
development, encouraging walkable centers with retail, office, and residential uses
• Increase Regional Commercial. Increase the amount of land designated as Regional
Commercial to allow for the development of larger commercial establishments
Key Takeaways: At full buildout...
1. High population growth. Scenario 4 offers capacity to increase the city’s population.
2. High housing growth. Scenario 4 would increase the city's stock of both single- and
multi-family housing units; however, Scenario 2 would create a higher capacity for new
housing units in the city.
3. Highest job creation. Scenario 4 creates the highest capacity for new jobs in the city and
emphasizes commercial expansion.
RESIDENTS = 31,607
+ 7,957 from Existing General Plan
- 2,718 from Scenario 2
+ 4,806 from Scenario 3
SINGLE FAMILY UNITS = 10,770
+ 1,718 from Existing General Plan
- 397 from Scenario 2
+ 972 from Scenario 3
JOBS = 28,199
+ 12,792 from Existing General Plan
+ 9,692 from Scenario 2
+ 12,419 from Scenario 3
MULTI-FAMILY UNITS = 5,562
+ 2,458 from Existing General Plan
- 1,225 from Scenario 2
+ 1,438 from Scenario 3
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Figure 8. Scenario 4: Commercial Focused Approach
Summary Results
Methodology
The Project Team used Urban Footprint, a GIS-based application used to analyze the implications of
changes to land uses, to model Arroyo Grande’s four land use Scenarios. Urban Footprint uses a curated,
enriched dataset of existing land uses in the United States to calculate insights and implications of
different theoretical models of planning areas. The program looks at several topics, including general
city statistics, land consumption, energy use, water use, pedestrian accessibility, transit accessibility,
transportation, emissions, and household costs. The following analysis uses the data provided by Urban
Footprint to form an understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of each scenario to give
decisionmakers an understanding of the implications of selecting one scenario over another. Often, this
process results in a City Council selecting a hybrid scenario, selecting the best features of each scenario.
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Summary of Metrics
Table 2 provides a summary of the overall comparative metrics between the four land use Scenarios.
Table 2: Summary of Metrics
Metric Scenario 1: Existing
General Plan
Scenario 2: Infill
Focus
Scenario 3:
Residential and
Complimentary
Uses Focus
Scenario 4:
Commercial
Focused Approach
Range of Housing Types
45% Single
Family, detached
43% Single
Family, detached
39% Single
Family, detached
46% Single
Family, detached
30% Single
Family, attached
19% Single
Family, attached
32% Single
Family, attached
20% Single
Family, attached
26% Multifamily 38% Multifamily 30% Multifamily 34% Multifamily
Single-family Housing Unit
Capacity 9,052 11,167 9,798 10,770
Multifamily Housing Unit
Capacity 3,103 6,787 4,124 5,562
Employment Capacity 15,407 18,507 15,780 28,199
Population Capacity 23,650 34,325 26,801 31,607
Total Consumed Open
Space and Agricultural
Land at Buildout (acres)
N/A N/A 138.7 143.3
Evaluation of Metrics
Range of Housing
In 2023, approximately 69 percent of the 8,086 housing units in Arroyo Grande were single-family,
detached homes and approximately eight percent of units were single-family, attached homes. The
remaining 23 percent of units consisted of multifamily housing. At full buildout, all Scenarios would
create an increased capacity for all housing types in the city, with Scenarios 2 and 4 proposing the
highest total capacity for both single-family and multifamily housing types. Scenarios 2 and 4 also
propose a larger proportion of multifamily housing compared to Scenarios 1 and 3, potentially better
serving the housing needs for individuals and families in varied income groups.
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Table 3: Range of Housing
Metric Scenario 1: Existing
General Plan
Scenario 2: Infill
Focus
Scenario 3:
Residential and
Complimentary
Uses Focus
Scenario 4:
Commercial
Focused Approach
Range of Housing Types
45% Single
Family, detached
43% Single
Family, detached
39% Single
Family, detached
46% Single
Family, detached
30% Single
Family, attached
19% Single
Family, attached
32% Single
Family, attached
20% Single
Family, attached
26% Multifamily 38% Multifamily 30% Multifamily 34% Multifamily
Number of Single Family
Dwelling Units 9,052 11,167 9,798 10,770
Number of Multi-family
Dwelling Units 3,103 6,787 4,124 5,562
Total Dwelling Units 12,156 17,953 13,922 16,332
Population Capacity
In 2020, Arroyo Grande’s population was approximately 18,441 residents. At full buildout, all Scenarios
would provide for a higher population capacity due to their increased capacity for new housing units;
however, Scenarios 2 and 4 would provide for the highest future population capacity compared to other
Scenarios at 34,325 residents and 31,607 maximum residents, respectively.
Table 4: Range of Housing
Metric Scenario 1: Existing
General Plan
Scenario 2: Infill
Focus
Scenario 3:
Residential and
Complimentary
Uses Focus
Scenario 4:
Commercial
Focused Approach
Population 23,650 34,325 26,801 31,607
Housing Accessibility and Affordability
Arroyo Grande was assigned a Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) for the period from 2020 to
2028, as detailed in Table 5. This allocation mandates the city must plan for the development of 692
new dwelling units during its 2020 to 2028 RHNA. All proposed Scenarios exceed this requirement
significantly, ensuring ample capacity for housing growth.
Specifically, Scenarios 2 and 4 offer a range of housing options, including both single-family and
multifamily units. This capacity for a variety of housing types positions the city to better accommodate
diverse future housing demands.
Although the RHNA only projects out to 2028, the planning horizon for the General Plan extends over
the next 20 to 30 years. The housing capacity provided by Scenarios 2 and 4 in excess of the current
RHNA would ensure that Arroyo Grande will be well-prepared to meet its future RHNA cycles. This
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proactive approach supports the city’s long-term growth and housing strategy, aligning with both
current and future residential needs.
Table 5: City of Arroyo Grande 2020-2028 Housing Element RHNA Allocation by Income Level
Jurisdiction Very Low Low Moderate Above
Moderate Total
Arroyo Grande 170 107 124 291 692
Consistent development of new housing may reduce the gap between supply and demand, and
therefore keeps housing costs from escalating. Scenarios 2, 3, and 4 all provide for a higher housing
capacity than the City’s existing General Plan. The proposed increase in housing capacity under
Scenarios 2 and 4, specifically, would make housing more affordable due to increased supply.
Table 6: Housing Accessibility
Metric Scenario 1: Existing
General Plan
Scenario 2: Infill
Focus
Scenario 3:
Residential and
Complimentary
Uses Focus
Scenario 4:
Commercial
Focused Approach
Net New Single Family
Dwelling Units (Compared
to Scenario 1)
- + 2,114 + 746 + 1,718
Net New Multi-family
Dwelling Units (Compared
to Scenario 1)
- + 3,684 + 1,020 + 2,458
Net New Total Dwelling
Units (Compared to
Scenario 1)
- + 5,797 + 1,766 + 4,176
In addition to the overall cost of housing, which includes mortgage and rent, affordability for residents is
also influenced by residential water and energy usage costs. Scenarios 2 and 4 offer the lowest annual
average residential water cost at $512 and $558 per unit, respectively, compared to $642 for Scenario 1
and $603 for Scenario 3. However, Scenarios 2 and 3 provide for the lowest annual average residential
energy cost at $2,373 and $2,399 per unit, respectively, compared to $2,468 for Scenario 1 and $2,437
for Scenario 4. It is important to note that despite the lower per-unit water and energy costs in certain
scenarios, overall citywide annual residential water and energy costs increase under Scenarios 2, 3, and
4. This increase is due to the overall rise in the number of housing units in these Scenarios, reflecting
their broader capacity of development.
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Table 7: Housing Unit Affordability
Metric Scenario 1: Existing
General Plan
Scenario 2: Infill
Focus
Scenario 3:
Residential and
Complimentary
Uses Focus
Scenario 4:
Commercial
Focused Approach
Annual Residential Water
Costs (Total) $7.8 M $9.2 M $8.4 M $9.1 M
Annual Average Residential
Water Costs Per Unit $641.66 $512.45 $603.36 $557.19
Annual Residential Energy
Costs (Total) $ 30 M $ 42.6 M $33.4 M $ 39.8 M
Annual Average Residential
Energy Costs Per Unit $2,467.92 $2,372.86 $2,399.08 $2,436.93
Land Use Efficiency
Land Use Efficiency measures how effectively a city’s development capacity can be expanded while
minimizing the development of vacant greenfield land, including the undeveloped agricultural and open
space parcels found in the southeastern portion of the city. Scenario 2 demonstrates higher land use
efficiency than all other scenarios, as this Scenario promotes infill developments and avoids consuming
any agricultural or open space lands, all while providing the largest capacity for new residential
development at 5,797 new units.
Conversely, Scenarios 3 and 4 propose the consumption of approximately 139 and 143 acres of open
space and agricultural land, respectively, to accommodate additional residential development and
employment capacity. No agricultural or open space lands would be consumed under Scenarios 1 and 2.
Although Scenario 3 and 4 propose a similar amount of land consumption, Scenario 4 is much more
efficient in terms of its capacity for new housing units and jobs created per acres of agricultural land
consumed. Under Scenario 4, for each acre of land consumed, the city would increase its capacity for
housing by 29 units and its capacity for employment by 89 jobs.
Although Scenario 2 does not consume as much land as other Scenarios, it does not nearly have the
capacity for employment that Scenario 4 offers. Scenario 4 creates capacity for up to 12,792 additional
jobs, whereas Scenario 2 would accommodate 3,100 new jobs.
Table 8: Land Use Efficiency
Metric Scenario 1: Existing
General Plan
Scenario 2: Infill
Focus
Scenario 3:
Residential and
Complimentary
Uses Focus
Scenario 4:
Commercial
Focused Approach
Total Consumed Open
Space and Agricultural
Land at Buildout (acres)
N/A N/A 138.7 143.3
Net New Total Dwelling
Units (Compared to
Scenario 1)
- + 5,797 + 1,766 + 4,176
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Table 8: Land Use Efficiency
Metric Scenario 1: Existing
General Plan
Scenario 2: Infill
Focus
Scenario 3:
Residential and
Complimentary
Uses Focus
Scenario 4:
Commercial
Focused Approach
Net New Employment
(Compared to
Scenario 1)
- + 3,100 + 373 + 12,792
Land Use Efficiency (new
housing unit capacity per
acres Ag land consumed)
No Ag land
consumed
No Ag land
consumed + 12.7 + 29.1
Land Use Efficiency (new
jobs capacity per acres Ag
land consumed)
No Ag land
consumed
No Ag land
consumed + 2.7 + 89.3
Nonresidential Development and Employment Capacity
This metric assesses the anticipated number of new jobs each scenario can support at full buildout,
assuming all designated employment-generating lands are fully developed or redeveloped. Scenario 4
forecasts the highest net increase in employment at 12,792 new jobs, compared to 3,100 new jobs
under Scenario 2 and 373 new jobs under Scenario 3.
Scenario 4 would create the highest capacity for job creation out of all scenarios through the
consumption of approximately 143 acres of agricultural and open space lands using a specific plan
process as well as increasing the allowable FAR and lot coverage for General Plan land use designations
such as Mixed Use, Regional Commercial, and Office. Scenario 4 also offers the highest total job creation
per capita out of all scenarios. Scenario 2 provides some capacity for new employment-generating
spaces through denser infill development, avoiding the need to convert agricultural and open space
lands to urban uses.
Several land use changes are proposed across the various scenarios to create a higher capacity for
nonresidential development. Scenarios 2 and 4 propose increasing the allowable density for the City’s
Mixed Use designation from 25 du/acre to 30 du/acre and 28 du/acre, respectively. Under Scenarios 2,
3, and 4, floor area ratio (FAR) and lot coverage standards would be established for non-residential,
mixed-use development. Additionally, Scenarios 2 and 3 introduce a new Corridor Mixed Use land
designation that allows a higher intensity of mixed use developments along key corridors such as E
Grand Avenue. Under Scenario 2, the Corridor Mixed Use designation would allow a higher density of
developments (up to 36 du/acre and 2.5 FAR) than Scenario 3 (up to 30 du/acre and 2.0 FAR). Finally,
Scenario 4 proposes to establish dense FAR and lot coverage standards for commercial land use
designations.
Across all scenarios, including the existing General Plan buildout, there is a relatively consistent
distribution of retail, office, public, and industrial jobs, comprising 60 percent to 70 percent retail, 13
percent to 21 percent office, 10 to 23 percent public, and less than one percent industrial.
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Table 9: Nonresidential Development and Employment Capacity
Metric Scenario 1: Existing
General Plan
Scenario 2: Infill
Focus
Scenario 3:
Residential and
Complimentary
Uses Focus
Scenario 4:
Commercial
Focused Approach
Employment Capacity 15,407 18,507 15,780 28,199
Percent Retail Jobs 60% 70% 65% 68%
Percent Office Jobs 17% 13% 16% 22%
Percent Public Jobs 23% 16% 19% 10%
Percent Industrial Jobs 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% <0.1%
Total Employment Per
Capita 0.65 0.54 0.59 0.89
Total Retail, Office, and
Industrial Building Area
(acres)
230.62 280.72 236.18 372.67
Net New Employment - + 3,100 + 373 + 12,792
Net New Retail, Office, and
Industrial Building Area
(acres)
- + 50.10 + 5.56 + 142.05
Trip Generation Analysis
Creating capacity for new land uses can also influence daily trips generated, vehicle miles traveled, and
greenhouse gases emitted within the City limits. Scenarios 2 and 4 would likely prompt the largest
increase in total annual vehicle miles traveled and annual passenger vehicle greenhouse gas emissions
compared to Scenarios 1 and 3. This is likely a direct response to the higher population capacities under
these Scenarios, and not necessarily as a result of the density and proximity of residential and
nonresidential developments.
Across all Scenarios, approximately 86 to 89 percent of travel mode share would consist of private
vehicles, just under four percent would consist of public transportation, and between seven and ten
percent would consist of pedestrians and bicyclists. Although there were no substantial differences in
mode share across the Scenarios, Scenario 2 offered the highest ratio of residents travelling via public
transportation or as pedestrians and bicyclists. These differences in travel mode share between
Scenarios is only as a result of changes in the built environment such as new building development, and
not as a result of improved active transportation infrastructure. Improvements to public transportation
access, sidewalks, bicycle lanes, and more might further encourage modes of active transportation
amongst residents.
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Table 10: Trip Generation and Mode Share
Metric Scenario 1: Existing
General Plan
Scenario 2: Infill
Focus
Scenario 3:
Residential and
Complimentary
Uses Focus
Scenario 4:
Commercial
Focused Approach
Annual Vehicle Miles
Travelled (passenger
vehicles in millions of miles
travelled)
85.5 116.2 94.5 130.11
Per Capita Annual
Residential Vehicle Miles
Travelled
(miles/year/person)
2,713.6 2,559.8 2,672.5 2,732.4
Annual Passenger Vehicle
GHG Emissions (metric tons
of CO₂ equivalent)
33,558.2 45,600.0 37,078.6 51,073.5
Travel Mode Share
Auto 88% 86% 88% 89%
Public Transportation 4% 4% 4% 4%
Pedestrian and Bicyclist 9% 10% 9% 7%
Page 206 of 220
1415 20TH STREET
Sacramento, California 95811
(916) 446-0522
FAX (916) 446-7520
mintier@mintierharnish.com
www.mintierharish.com
M E M O R A N D U M
TO: Brian Pedrotti, Director of Community Development, City of Arroyo Grande
Andrew Perez, Planning Manager, City of Arroyo Grande
FROM: Michael Gibbons, Project Manager | Mintier Harnish
CC: Brent Gibbons, Nikki Zanchetta | Mintier Harnish
DATE: March 12, 2025
RE: Land Use Scenarios Workshop and Survey Results
Introduction
On February 5, 2025, the City held a community workshop to introduce four potential land use scenarios
for the General Plan Update. The workshop included a presentation, informational posters, and
interactive activities to solicit community feedback on each land use scenario in relation to each of the
three focus areas. Following the workshop, the city released a community survey with questions similar
to those included in the workshop activities. The survey was available online from February 6, 2025,
through March 10, 2025, and was promoted via the City of Arroyo Grande social media channels, the
project website, and eblasts sent to the project email list.
Workshop Activities and Survey Questions
Workshop Activities
The workshop included three activities for participants to
complete:
Land Use Scenarios Preference Worksheet
Each workshop attendee was given a one-page (front and
back) worksheet to gather feedback on their preferred land
use scenarios for each of the three focus areas. One side of
the worksheet included a brief description of each land use
scenario. The other side of the worksheet included three
sections, one for each focus area. Participants were asked to
select which scenario they prefer for each focus area and
provide a brief explanation for their decision. A total of 28
worksheets were collected during the workshop.
ATTACHMENT 2
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Land Use Scenarios Survey Results
Wednesday, March 12, 2025
2
Frederick Focus Area Lego Activity
The goal of this activity was for participants to provide their
input on how they would distribute land uses within a
theoretical specific plan using the specific plan land use
percentages allocated for Scenarios 3 and 4. Each
participant received a set of pre-assigned Lego pieces
representing the ratio of area dedicated to each land uses
for the scenario the participant indicated as their preferred
scenario for the Frederick Focus Area. The ratios were
derived from prior outreach efforts that asked about the
land use preferences for this area. Participants were
asked to arrange the Legos on a gridded map of the focus area to reflect their preferred development
pattern. A copy of each activity response is included at the end of this memo.
North Fair Oaks Focus Area Lego Activity
This activity was the same as the Frederick Focus Area Lego
activity described above, but for the North Fair Oaks Focus
Area, using the specific plan land use percentages allocated
for Scenarios 3 and 4. Each participant received a set of
pre-assigned Lego pieces representing the ratio of area
dedicated to each land use for the scenario the participant
indicated as their preferred scenario for the North Fair Oaks
Focus Area. The ratios were derived from prior outreach
efforts that asked about the land use preferences for this
area. Participants were asked to arrange the Legos on a
gridded map of the focus area to reflect their preferred
development pattern. A copy of each activity response is included at the end of this memo.
Online Survey Questions
The online survey included a total of eight questions, plus four optional demographic questions. The first
two questions asked respondents if they attended the community workshop on February 5th, and if so,
did they submit a Land Use Scenarios Preference Worksheet during the workshop.
The remaining six survey questions were identical to those on the Land Use Scenarios Preference
Worksheet , asking respondents to select which land use scenario they prefer for each focus area and
provide a brief explanation for their decision. The front end of the survey included a brief description of
each proposed land use scenario and the three focus areas. Additionally, respondents were encouraged
review the workshop materials and land use scenarios information posted on the project website or to
contact a project team member with questions before completing the survey.
A total of 92 survey responses were received, nine of which indicated they attended the community
workshop on February 5th. Of those nine respondents, four indicated that they completed and
submitted the activity worksheet. To ensure that responses from community members are not double
counted, these four responses are excluded from the survey results evaluation in the following section
Example of Frederick Focus Area Lego activity.
Example of North Fair Oaks Focus Area Lego activity.
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with the assumption that these responses are accounted for in the evaluation of the worksheet
responses from the workshop.
Survey Demographics
The following demographic information was collected as part of the online survey. Demographic
information was not collected during the community workshop and is not reflected in the data reported
in this section.
Age. A majority of respondents are older adults, with about 34 percent aged 65 and over and 24 percent
aged 55 to 64 years. Middle-aged adults (35-54 years old) account for 25 percent of respondents, while
younger adults (18-34 years old make up nine percent of respondents. Only about one percent of
respondents are under 18 years of age. Eight percent of respondents did not provide a response
regarding their age.
Race/Ethnicity. A majority of respondents (70 percent) are White/European American. Thirteen percent
of respondents preferred not to provide race/ethnicity information and five percent reported “other”.
Household Income. A majority of respondents reported a household income of $100,000 or more, with
27 percent making between $100,000 and $150,000 and 27 percent making over $150,000. About 13
percent of respondents reported making between $50,000 and $74,999, and 12 percent reported
making between $75,000 and $99,999. About five percent of respondents reported making less than
$50,000. Fifteen percent of respondents did not provide income information.
Gender. About 45 percent of respondents identify as male and 37 percent of respondents identify as
female. The remaining 18 percent of respondents did not provide gender identity information.
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Preferred Land Use Scenarios by Focus Area
This section includes an overview of community input received on preferred land use scenarios for each
focus area identified as part of the land use scenarios process. These summaries include responses from
both the worksheet from the community workshop and the online community survey.
East Grand Corridor
Community members prefer Scenario 2 (Infill Development) for the East Grand Corridor Focus Area
accounting for 39 percent of responses, followed by Scenario 1 (Baseline) with a 23 percent response
rate. Scenarios 3 (Residential and Complimentary Uses) and 4 (Commercial Focused Approach) received
similar response rates of 18 and 20 percent respectively.
Scenario #1 (Baseline) Response Summary
Respondents that selected Scenario 1 as their preferred land use scenario for the East Grand
Corridor Focus Area expressed strong support for preserving Arroyo Grande’s rural and agricultural
character and expressed concern over increasing commercial and residential density and its impact
on the community’s character. These respondents value that Arroyo Grande isn’t overdeveloped and
expressed opposition to any significant growth or population increases. Concerns were raised about
potential negative impacts of growth, including increased traffic congestion, loss of agricultural land,
and potential environmental consequences such as increased greenhouse gas emissions.
Scenario #2 (Infill Development) Response Summary – COMMUNITY PREFFERED
Respondents that selected Scenario 2 as their preferred land use scenario for the East Grand
Corridor Focus Area favor a balanced approach to growth, emphasizing the need for more housing
while preserving agricultural land and open space. Many appreciate its focus on mixed-use and infill
development to create a walkable, bikeable, and vibrant community while minimizing sprawl. There
is strong interest in revitalizing underutilized properties along East Grand Avenue, enhancing
pedestrian and bike access, and maintaining its role as a key commercial corridor. Commenters also
stress the need to mitigate traffic congestion and ensure new housing remains affordable.
Supporters highlight the benefits of adding condos and apartments rather than single-family homes,
noting that increased density could boost local businesses and minimize the need to expand the
reach of public services and infrastructure.
23%
39%
18%
20%
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
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Scenario #3 (Residential and Complimentary Uses) Response Summary
Respondents that selected Scenario 3 as their preferred land use scenario for the East Grand
Corridor Focus Area expressed the potential for mixed-use developments that combine residential
and commercial spaces in a well-connected area with good access to Highway 101. There is a strong
focus on increasing housing, particularly multi-family units or condos, by repurposing vacant
commercial properties. Commenters emphasize the need for walkable, livable neighborhoods with
features like bike paths, walking trails, parks, and even a trolley to connect residents and tourists to
the beach. Although respondents generally advocate for more housing along East Grand Avenue,
there is a desire to maintain and encourage commercial development to meet the needs of residents
and visitors, especially low-income groups, and create a more walkable neighborhood.
Scenario #4 (Commercial Focused Approach) Response Summary
Respondents that selected Scenario 4 as their preferred land use scenario for the East Grand
Corridor Focus Area expressed support for enhancing the Grand Avenue corridor as a commercial
center of the City. Respondents liked that this scenario focuses on employment opportunities and
generating more tax revenue for the City. There is strong support for maintaining Grand Avenue’s
commercial character, with a minimal increase in housing development in this area. Commenters
highlight the importance of attracting tourists and local visitors by developing underutilized
properties into attractive, upscale venues, boosting the city’s economic growth. Respondents also
emphasized the importance of improvements to pedestrian and bike infrastructure to support
dining, shopping, and public facing spaces as part of this Scenario.
North Fair Oaks Focus Area
Community members prefer Scenario 1 (Baseline) for the North Fair Oaks Focus Area accounting for 54
percent of responses, followed by Scenario 3 (Residential and Complimentary Uses) with a 22 percent
response rate. Scenario 2 (Infill Development) had a 13 percent response rate, and Scenario 4
(Commercial Focused Approach) was the least preferred, accounting for 11 percent of responses. The
following sections include an overview of why respondents selected their preferred scenario.
54%
13%
22%
11%
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
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Scenario #1 (Baseline) Response Summary – COMMUNITY PREFFERED
Respondents that selected Scenario 1 as their preferred land use scenario for the North Fair Oaks
Focus Area strongly advocate for preserving this agricultural land and avoiding housing
development. Many emphasize the importance of prime farmland for future generations, food
production, and environmental sustainability. Commenters also highlight Arroyo Grande’s
agricultural heritage and the value of maintaining its rural character, scenic beauty, and historical ties
to farming. Additionally, many respondents are concerned about increased traffic if this area is
developed, particularly near the high school and major roads like Halcyon Road and Fair Oaks
Avenue, which already experience serious traffic congestion. Some commenters were open to
increased recreational access.
Scenario #2 (Infill Development) Response Summary
Similar to those that selected Scenario 1, respondents that selected Scenario 2 as their preferred
land use scenario for the North Fair Oaks Focus Area emphasize the importance of preserving prime
agricultural and open space to maintain Arroyo Grande’s character and heritage. Respondents in
support of Scenario 2 recognize the need for housing and commercial development but feel infill
development should be prioritized over converting farmland. Additional concerns include increased
traffic and congestion near the high school, flood risks, and infrastructure improvements.
Scenario #3 (Residential and Complimentary Uses) Response Summary
Respondents that selected Scenario 3 as their preferred land use scenario for North Fair Oaks Focus
Area recognize the opportunity this area presents for development in the future and feel this
scenario balances growth without overwhelming existing infrastructure, compromising native open
space, or changing Arroyo Grande’s character. Respondents like that this scenario provides
opportunity for diverse housing options, including apartments, townhomes, and single-family
residences, but minimizes commercial development in this area. Many respondents feel developing
this area could present opportunities for better connectivity throughout the community, linking
neighborhoods to schools, downtown, and the Village. Some respondents expressed concerns
regarding traffic, infrastructure improvements, connectivity enhancements, and maintaining the
Arroyo Grande Creek riparian area. Some respondents feel this area is an ideal location for
community amenities such as a multi-use trail along the creek, sports fields, an exercise park, a
permanent farmer’s market square, and community spaces.
Scenario #4 (Commercial Focused Approach) Response Summary
Respondents that selected Scenario 4 as their preferred land use scenario for the North Fair Oaks
Focus Area envision a vibrant, multi-use development near the high school that serves families and
teenagers with affordable food options, convenience stores, and recreational spaces. Many feel the
area’s central location is optimal for community events, concerts, and holiday celebrations. There is
strong interest in a mix of housing and jobs rather than single-family homes or strip malls, with some
advocating for commercial development that enhances tourism and economic growth. Overall,
respondents emphasize the need for thoughtful development that strengthens the city’s identity and
promotes economic development.
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Frederick Focus Area
Survey respondents prefer Scenario 3 (Residential and Complimentary Uses) for the Frederick Focus Area
accounting for 41 percent of responses, followed by Scenario 1 (Baseline) with a 31 percent response
rate. Scenarios 4 (Commercial Focused Approach) and 2 (Infill Development) received similar response
rates, at approximately 14 percent. The following sections include an overview of why respondents
selected their preferred scenario.
Scenario #1 (Baseline) Response Summary
Respondents that selected Scenario 1 as their preferred land use scenario for the Frederick Focus
Area emphasize the importance of preserving agricultural land, open space, and Arroyo Grande’s
rural character. Concerns include urban sprawl, negative traffic impacts, infrastructure limitations,
and environmental harm to local ecosystems and wildlife. While a few respondents suggest limited
or carefully planned development, most advocate for focusing growth within existing residential
areas rather than expanding outward. Some suggested making part of this area improved open
space.
Scenario #2 (Infill Development) Response Summary
Respondents that selected Scenario 2 as their preferred land use scenario for the Frederick Focus
Area support infill development in other areas of the city to accommodate growth and preserving
existing farmland and open space. Respondents expressed concerns that developing this area would
stress infrastructure demands, increase costs of City services, and cause traffic congestion issues.
Scenario #3 (Residential and Complimentary Uses) Response Summary – COMMUNITY PREFFERED
Respondents that selected Scenario 3 as their preferred land use scenario for the Frederick Focus
Area support residential development in the area, but with differing views on density. Many favor a
mix of uses focused primarily on residential development with smaller lot sizes and affordable
housing options, emphasizing walkability and a balanced approach to growth. Others prefer new
residential development in this area to be lower-density, estate-style housing to preserve the rural
character of the area while still providing additional housing options. Most respondents feel any
development in the area should be accompanied by parks, recreational areas, or open space areas.
31%
14%
41%
14%
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
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Concerns about future development in this area include traffic flow, city services, and resource
availability. Several comments highlight the need for thoughtful planning to ensure new
development enhances the city's livability, tax base, and long-term sustainability.
Scenario #4 (Commercial Focused Approach) Response Summary
Respondents that selected Scenario 4 as their preferred land use scenario for the Frederick Focus
Area like that this scenario provides opportunities for new types of commercial, manufacturing, and
light industrial uses in Arroyo Grande. Some see the location as ideal for large-scale manufacturing,
business centers, and retail due to its freeway access and does not infringe on already congested
roadways. Others suggest a self-contained neighborhood with housing and small retail and personal
services businesses (e.g., restaurants, barber shops, pet grooming). There is an interest in using the
area to improve truck routing, reducing traffic impacts on the Village. Some respondents expressed
concerns about the strain on infrastructure and traffic congestion, especially in connection with
Highway 101.
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Frederick Focus Area Lego Exercise Responses
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Frederick Focus Area Lego Exercise Responses Continued
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Frederick Focus Area Lego Exercise Responses Continued
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North Fair Oaks Focus Area Lego Exercise Responses
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North Fair Oaks Focus Area Lego Exercise Responses Continued
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North Fair Oaks Focus Area Lego Exercise Responses Continued
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