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CC 2015-06-23_08l Monthly Water Supply_Demand_Marketing UpdateMEMORANDUM TO: CITY COUNCIL FROM: GEOFF ENGLISH, DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC WORKS BY: SHANE TAYLOR, PUBLIC WORKS SUPERVISOR -UTILITIES SUBJECT: MONTHLY WATER SUPPLY, DEMAND AND MARKETING UPDATE DATE: JUNE 23, 2015 RECOMMENDATION: It is recommended the City Council receive and review the monthly Water Supply, Demand and Marketing Update Report. IMPACT ON FINANCIAL AND PERSONNEL RESOURCES: The cost to provide the report is approximately $500. BACKGROUND: The severe drought continues to impact the City's water supply and demand. As a result, the City Council declared a Stage 1 Water Shortage Emergency on May 26, 2015. This monthly update on the current supply and demand statistics will provide the Council with the data required to make decisions related to Emergency Water Shortage Restrictions and Regulations. In addition, a marketing update is included to inform the Council on the thinkh20 campaign. ANALYSIS OF ISSUES: The severe drought continues and current rainfall is 48% less than normal. Lopez Lake is currently at 36% capacity. The Low Reservoir Level Response Plan (LRRP) has been enacted. At the Zone 3 Advisory Board meeting on May 21, 2015, the Board recommended that the deliveries from the Water Treatment Plant be reduced by 10% starting April 1, 2015. This is in advance of the Lake reaching 15,000 AF of storage, which is the automatic reduction trigger. In May the City's water use was 27% below May 2013. The reduction requirement imposed by the State Water Resources Control Board for Arroyo Grande is 28%. Item 8.l. - Page 1 CITY COUNCIL MONTHLY WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND UPDATE JUNE 23, 2015 PAGE 2 Based on current use and weather patterns, the lake is predicted to reach the 15,000 AF storage level in October 2015 unless the current weather pattern changes. The Lopez supply for water year 2015/16 for Arroyo Grande is 2,942 AF, which includes 883 AF of carry-over water. Based on the projected water demand of 2,300 AF, we expect to be able to meet the demand in water year 2015/16 with minimal groundwater pumping. Ground water levels are the same as last year in May. Minimal pumping of the City's entitlement from the Santa Maria Groundwater Basin (SMGB) is anticipated in water year 2015/16. ADVANTAGES: No advantages noted at this time. DISADVANTAGES: No disadvantages noted at this time. ALTERNATIVES: Not applicable at this time. ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW: No environmental review is required for this item. PUBLIC NOTIFICATION AND COMMENTS: The Agenda was posted in front of City Hall on Thursday, June 18, 2015. The Agenda and staff report were posted on the City's website on Friday, June 19, 2015. Attachments: 1. May 2015 Water Supply and Demand Charts 2. Lopez Reservoir Storage Projections 3. Thinkh2o Report Item 8.l. - Page 2 Ci t y o f Ar r o y o Gr a n d e W a t e r Su p p l y an d De m a n d Up d a t e - M a y 20 1 5 Ra i n f a l l Cu m u l u t i v e Ru i n fu l l fr o m Ju l y 20 1 4 to Ma y 31 s t : 7. 7 5 in c h e s 35 . 0 30 . 0 .. , . 25 . 0 c :: : . 20 . 0 Cu m u l a t i v e Ra i n f a l l ·· · · · · · · · · · .. . . ·· · · · · • i 15 . 0 ~ 10 . 0 5. 0 0 . 0 - - - - .. ..:=-~-- - ~ : : . ~ · : ? £ : 2 · ? ~ ; f ~ ! T ~ : ~ ; - : : : ~ ; i f f i ; F JU L AU G SE P OC T NO V DE C JA N FE B MA R AP R MA Y JU N ~ A v e r a g e Ra i n f a l l Ye a r (1 9 9 5 - 1 9 9 6 ) • • • • • • We t t e i t Ra i n f a l l Ye < u (1 9 9 7 - 1 9 9 8 ) - • • Dr i c s t l t i l i n f a l l Ye a r (2 0 1 3 · 2 0 1 4 ) - - 2 0 1 4 - 2 0 1 5 Ra i n f a l l as of Ma y 31 , 20 1 5 No t e : Pr e c i p i t a t i o n da t a fr o m A G Co r p Ya r d St a t i o n No . 17 7 . 1 fr o m Ju l y 19 6 6 ·M a y 31 . 2 0 1 5 . W a t e r De m a n d To t a l Cit ~ De m a n d (A F / Ma y 20 1 3 29 9 . 8 Ma y 20 1 5 21 8 . 8 %D i f f e r e n c e fr o m 20 1 3 -2 7 % WY 20 1 3 / 1 4 YT D 56 6 . 3 WY 20 1 5 / 1 6 YT D 42 6 . 6 %D i f f e r e n c e fr o m WY 20 1 3 / 1 4 -2 5 % I Pr e d i c t e d Su p p l y an d De m a n d I WY 20 1 5 / 1 6 Pr e d i c t e d Su p p l y an d De m a n d 5, 0 0 0 4. 0 0 0 3. 0 0 0 \'! 2, 0 0 0 t 88 1 1, 0 0 0 2, 0 6 1 -· : 2, 3 0 0 1 - . I EJ Lo p e z En t i t l e m e n t (- 1 0 % ) 0 lo p e t Su r p l u s 0 SM G B Gr o u n d w a t e r Al l o c a t i o n m Pi: ~ . m o Fo r m a t i o n Gr o u n d w a t e r f9 W Y 20 1 5 / 1 6 Ta r g e t De m a n d No t e : Th e Wa t e r Ye a r (W Y ) fo r wa t e r de m a n d is fr o m Ap r i l to M0 1 r c n . I 1 Lo p e z La k e W a t e r S u p p l y - ; - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - WY 15 { . 1 6 Ye o r t a Dare 1· R~maining Allocated Ma v 20 1 5 Wll2!Y. La k e El e v a t i o n (f u l l at 52 2 . 3 7 ft ) 47 6 . 9 4 St o r a g e (f u l l at 49 , 2 0 0 AF ) 17 , 5 6 4 . 4 St o r a g e · Pe r c e n t Fu l l 36 % St a t u s En a c t e d Cu r r e n t En t i t l e m e n t Re d u c t i o n 10 % De l i v e r i e s (A F ) 20 4 . 0 5 385.22 I 2,556.93 No t e : 1t 1 e Wa t e r Ye a r (W Y ) fo r lo p e z la k e is fr o m Ap r i l to Ma r c h . Th e ac t u a l am o u n t of ~t o r a g e in lo p e z at the end of May 201S wa\ 18,288 AF; ho w e v e r , th e st o r a g e am o u n t an r t sto r < ~ g ~ pe r c e n t a g e ab o v e we r e ad j u 5 t e d to ac c o u n t fo r th e 72 3 . 6 1 AF of stored State Water Project water In the la k e . Gr o u n d w a t e r Ma v 2 0 1 5 Ca l e n d a r Ye a r to Date Remaining Entitlemellt SM G B Pr o d u c t i o n (A F ) 5. 1 31.6 Pi s m o Fo r m a t i o n Pr o d u c t i o n (A F ) 9. 6 29.5 NA Ci t y SM G B av e r a g e we l l le v e l s fo r Ma y 20 1 5 we r e eq u a l to Ma y 20 1 4 . ~~ ! _ ? ~ ~ w a t e r ent i t i e m c ' 2 _ ~ d _ _ _ £ _ f " ~ c _ ! _ ~ ~ - t _ i _ o n _ d a t a i\ ba s e d on th e ca l c _ n d a r ye a r . 35 0 30 0 ~25 0 >--~2 0 0 u -; ; ; - 1 5 0 ·~ ~ 10 0 Q) 0 so 0 Wa t e r Su p p l y , De m a n d an d De l i v e r y Ch a r t ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ & ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c: : : : : ; : : : : : ] lo p e z Wa t e r Av a i l a b l e (A F ) ~ l o p e z Wa t e r De l i v e r y - SM G B Wa t e r Pu m p e d (A F ) - P r e d i c t e d Pi s m o Fo r m a t i o n Pr o d u c t i o n - - - Av e r a g e De m a n d 20 1 1 · 2 0 1 3 (A F ) ~G r o u n d w a t e r Allotment Available ~ P i s m o Formation Water Pumped (AF) ~P r e d i c t e d lopez Water Delivery ll l D I I D Pr e d i c t e d SMGB Production 1,291.4 6,000 5,000 ~ 4,000~ ·c: 3,000 -~ Q) "' 2,000-5: c. ::1 1,000 V'l 0 No t e : Th e s e pr o d u c t i o n fo r e c a s t s co n t a i n pr e l i m i n a r y es t i m a t e s of wa t e r pr o d u c t i o n an d dr a r t pr e d i c t i o n s of future production based on historical av e r a g e s . )> ~ ~ )> (') :I: s: m z ~ ~ Updated: 6/12/2015 Item 8.l. - Page 3 25 , 0 0 0 22 , 5 0 0 20 , 0 0 0 i: L :5 . . 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"' "' "' "' "' "' "' "' "' "' "' "' "' ~ <0 "' ;; ;; ;; ;; ~ ;; ;; ;; ;; ;; ;; ;; 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N ~- .: .: .: .: .: .: . : -· .: ~· .: .: .: .: .: .: 0 c: . 0 ii i Ci >- c: '5 C> a. t l > 0 c: . 0 ii i Ci Q) "' Q) < ( ., " " ' ) " Q) 0 0 Q) ., ., :: ; <( 0 " ' ) l L ::. ; ; :: ; " ' ) <( en z 0 " ' ) l L No t e s : . • Fo r "D r y Mo n t h s " , pr o j e c t e d in c r e a s e s an d / o r de c r e a s e s in st o r a g e es t i m a t e d to mi m i c 20 1 3 co n d i t i o n s . • Fo r "W e t M o n t h s " , pr o j e c t e d st o r a g e de c l i n e s as s u m e an n u a l do w n s t r e a m re l e a s e of 4, 2 0 0 AF Y an d de l i v e r i e s of 4, 5 3 0 AF Y . • Fo r "W e t Mo n t h s . pr o j e c t e d st o r a g e in c r e a s e s ba s e d on hi s t o r i c tr e n d s fr o m ac t u a l st o r m da t a fo r th e pe r i o d of 12 / 1 9 9 3 th r o u g h 6/ 2 0 1 1 . • St o r a g e pr o j e c t i o n fo r "W e t Mo n t h s " as s u m e th a t un s a t u r a t e d co n d i t i o n s ex i s t . • Mo n t h l y ra i n f a l l pr o j e c t i o n s as s u m e d to oc c u r du r i n g th e fi r s t we e k of ea c h mo n t h . • As s u m e d ra i n f a l l : 10 0 % of av e r a g e ra i n f a l l .. ·A v e r a g e ra i n f a l l pr o j e c t i o n va l u e s pr o v i d e d by ww w . L o n g R a n g e W e a t h e r . c o m , an d up d a t e d 5/ 6 / 2 0 1 5 . • St a t e Wa t e r st o r e d is 90 7 . 1 0 AF . G: \ U t i l i t i e s \ Z o n e 3\ A d v i s o r y Co m m i t t e e \ R e s e r v o i r Ch a r t In f o w <0 <0 <0 <0 "' ;; ;; ;; ;; ;; 0 N N N N N N "' ;; N ~· r ' .: r' r' .: .: ... c: '5 C> a. u "' " " ' ) " Q) 0 ::. ; ; " ' ) <( en > 0 z 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 E c 0 ...., 2 ·a. u Ql ,_ Cl. >-ro 9 ,.._ )> -f -f )> (') ::r: s m z -f N Item 8.l. - Page 4 verdinmarketing.com 3580 Sacramento Dr. #110, San Luis Obispo, CA 93401 t 805 541 9005 f 805 541 9007 FORMS SUBMITTED TO CITY ADVERTISING Total Impressions: 1,164,106 ARROYO GRANDE STAT SUMMARY MAY 2015 PANDORA COAST NEWS CINEMA ADVERTISING FACEBOOK FACEBOOK TWITTER DIGITAL ADS SOCIAL MEDIA Total Impressions: 578,000 WEBSITE Total Visitors: 5,027 CONSERVATION PERCENTAGE (FROM 2013)CALLS TO CITY PROGRAMS & REBATES Campaign to Date: •507,408 impressions •1343 clicks •.53% Click-Thru Rate (National CTR average: .04 – .08%) May: •71,028 impressions •338 clicks •.50% Click-Thru Rate (National CTR average: .04 – .08%) Total campaign: •New Followers: 41 •Mentions: 6 •Clicks: 133 •Retweets: 14 May: •New Followers: 14 •Mentions: 1 •Clicks: 2 •Retweets: 5 Total campaign: •Likes: 387 •Total Reach: 169,290 •Engagement Reach: 3% •Page Impressions: 519,794 May: •Likes: 21 •Total Reach: 4,185 •Engagement Reach: 2.7% •Page Impressions: 120,929 Campaign to Date: Unique visitors: 3,899 Returning visitors: 1,128 Total visitors: 5,027 May: Unique visitors: 1,355 Returning visitors: 445 Total visitors: 1,800 Info Coming Soon Estimated 80,000 impressions (4 ads at industry read average of 2.5) Info Coming Soon Will begin June 2015 27% Campaign to Date: •236,365 impressions •2,165 clicks •.91% Click-Thru Rate (National CTR average: .04 – .08%) May: •122,326 impressions •1,415 clicks •1.157% Click-Thru Rate (National CTR average: .04 – .08%) Campaign to date: •340,333 impressions •.09% Click-Thru Rate (National CTR average: .04 – .08%) May: •134,472 impressions •105 web clicks •338 engagements •.09% Click-Thru Rate (National CTR average: .04 – .08%) Item 8.l. - Page 5 ATTACHMENT 3 verdinmarketing.com 3580 Sacramento Dr. #110, San Luis Obispo, CA 93401 t 805 541 9005 f 805 541 9007 ARROYO GRANDE STAT SUMMARY MAY 2015 We are continuing to see a growth in website traffic, with the majority of traffic coming from mobile or tablets (68%). The pages with the highest traffic are the rebates and mandatory restrictions, showing that people are interested in the programs the cities are offering and what is expected of them as citizens. Social Media has been growing strong with excellent engagement rates and a growing number of likes and followers. Reach is remaining high on Facebook despite the small target community and recent changes to the Facebook News Feed algorithm, suggesting that the content being shared is considered useful and engaging to the user. Digital Advertising is continuing to bring in engagement number that are much higher than the national average. Pandora is continuing to be an excellent tool for getting out the message, as many people are engaging with the ad and clicking-thru for more information. Digital Ad creative is currently being updated and the new ads will generate new interest in the campaign. Beyond the digital advertising, the Regal Cinemas ad was completed and began running on all screens on June 12, just in time for the opening of the Summer Blockbuster Season and what is expected to be some huge releases including Jurassic World, Inside Out and the Fantastic Four to name a few. A presentation is currently being completed by Mike de Milo and arrangements are being made to schedule presentations at local service clubs, the Chamber of Commerce, HOAs, Church Groups, etc. Verdin has also been researching and gathering pricing for ideas for installation marketing pieces, as well as tactics that are being used across the state for reaching out to businesses, including hotels and restaurants, to help them reduce their water usage. Item 8.l. - Page 6