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CC 2015-07-28_08j Water Supply and Demand UpdateMEMORANDUM TO: CITY COUNCIL FROM: GEOFF ENGLISH, DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC WORKS BY: SHANE TAYLOR, PUBLIC WORKS SUPERVISOR – UTILITIES SUBJECT: MONTHLY WATER SUPPLY, DEMAND AND MARKETING UPDATE DATE: JULY 28, 2015 RECOMMENDATION: It is recommended the City Council receive and review the monthly Water Supply, Demand and Marketing Update Report. IMPACT ON FINANCIAL AND PERSONNEL RESOURCES: The cost to provide the report is approximately $500. BACKGROUND: The severe drought continues to impact the City’s water supply and demand. As a result, the City Council declared a Stage 1 Water Shortage Emergency on May 26, 2015. This monthly update on the current supply and demand statistics will provide the Council with the data required to make decisions related to Emergency Water Shortage Restrictions and Regulations. In addition, a marketing update is included to inform the Council on the Thinkh2o campaign. ANALYSIS OF ISSUES: The severe drought continues and current rainfall is 48% less than normal. Lopez Lake is currently at 34% capacity. The Low Reservoir Level Response Plan (LRRP) has been enacted. At the Zone 3 Advisory Board meeting on May 21, 2015, the Board recommended that the deliveries from the Water Treatment Plant be reduced b y 10% starting April 1, 2015. This is in advance of the Lake reaching 15,000 AF of storage, which is the automatic reduction trigger. In June the City’s water use was 33% below May 2013. The reduction requirement imposed by the State Water Resources Control Board for Arroyo Grande is 28%. Item 8.j. - Page 1 CITY COUNCIL MONTHLY WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND UPDATE JULY 28, 2015 PAGE 2 Based on current use and weather patterns, the lake is predicted to reach the 15,000 AF storage level in October 2015 unless the current weather pattern changes. The Lopez supply for water year 2015/16 for Arroyo Grande is 2,942 AF, which includes 883 AF of carry-over water. Based on the projected water demand of 2,300 AF, we expect to be able to meet the demand in water year 2015/16 with minimal groundwater pumping. Ground water levels are up one-foot compared to last year in June. Minimal pumping of the City’s entitlement from the Santa Maria Groundwater Basin (SMGB) has resulted in well levels actually going up in June. ADVANTAGES: No advantages noted at this time. DISADVANTAGES: No disadvantages noted at this time. ALTERNATIVES: Not applicable at this time. ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW: No environmental review is required for this item. PUBLIC NOTIFICATION AND COMMENTS: The Agenda was posted in front of City Hall on Thursday, June 18, 2015. The Agenda and staff report were posted on the City’s website on Friday, June 19, 2015. Attachments: 1.June 2015 Water Supply and Demand Charts 2.Lopez Reservoir Storage Projections 3.Thinkh2o Report Item 8.j. - Page 2 City of Arroyo Grande Water Supply and Demand Update-June 2015 Rainfall Cumulative Rainfall from July 2014 ta June 30th: 1.75 Jnches Cumulative Rainfall 35 30 ...,. 25 ~20 ~ 15 : 10 ·············· ... 0 .. .. ······ ....... JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN =Average Rainfall Year (1995-1996) ...... Wettest Ra Inf all Year (1997·1998) -• •Dnest Rainfall Year (2013-2014) -2014·2015 llalnfall as of June 30, 2015 Note Precipitation data from AG Corp Yard Statton No 1n 1 from July 1966 ·June 30, 2015 Water Demand Total Ci~ Demand £AF! ~13 304.9 15 205A % Difference from 2013 -33% WY 2013/14 YTD 871.4 WY 2015/16 YTD 632.1 % Difference from WY 2013/14 -21% Predicted Supply and Demand WY 2015/16 Predicted Supply and Demand S,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 El Lopez Entrtlement {-10%) El Lopez SUrplus a SMGB Groundwater Allocation m Pismo Formation Groundwater l!ilWY 2015/16 Target Demand Note The Water Year (WY) for water demand fs from April to March Water Supply Lopezl.Dke I Ri:.malnmg: r?,/lgmti:.d June2015 WY 15l16 Yeor to Date ~ Lake Elevation (full at 522.37 ft) 475.77 Storage (full at 49,200 AF) 16,959.3 Storage -Percent Full 34% Status Enacted Current Entitlement Reduction 10% Deliveries (AF) 193.65 578.87 I 2,363.28 l~~=ev1!~1WaterYear(WY) for Lopez Lake Is from Apnl to March The actual amount of storage In Lopez at the end of June 2015was17,nG AF: the storage amount and ~orage percentage above were adjusted to account for the 816 74 AF of stored State Water Project water rn the Groundwater I June2015 Calendar Year to Dote Remaining Entitlement ISMGB Production (AF) 0.8 32.4 1,290.6 40.4 NA ~ion Production (AF) 10.9 erage well levels for June 2015 were 1.09 feet higher than m June 2014. INote. Groundwaterentltlement and production data Is based on the calendar year~ Water Supply, Demand and Delivery Chart 350 300 ;:;::- .$ 250 i!' ·o ~200 .. u 1150 1: 100 g 50 0 i::::::::J Lopez Water Available (AF} =Lopez Water Delivery -SMGB Water Pumped [AF) -Predicted Pismo Formation Production ---Average Demand 2011-2013 (AF) m::i:JGroundwater Allotment Available ~ P15mo formation Water Pumped (AF) -Predicted Lopez Water Delivery mmm Predicted SMGB Production 6,000 5,000 ! 4,000 !!l' c 3,000 ~ ii! 2,oooa c. ::s 1,000"' 0 Note These production forecasts contain preliminary estimates of water productJon and draft predictions of future production based on histoncat averages Updated: 7 /15/2015 Item 8.j. - Page 3 ATTACHMENT 1 ()) ~ ~ ~ n ;;;r 3 CD a 0 25,000 22,500 20,000 U::- :$ Cll Cl 17,500 "' .... 0 -Cl) 15,000 12,500 10,000 15,000AF Aclual Sloraga (AF) Projecled Slorago (AF) Projected Storage Less Stale Wator Stored (AF) Precipitation Projection Cm) Lopez Reservoir Storage Projections -Revs1ed: 6/1/2015 (precipitation scenario source: www.LongRangeWeather.com) i l _______ J __ __ l : ! ::· i, l ' ; : i : ! ! « l I l, l : : I ·D',' ct.,' ; i ; : i o ~n ~, : -1.---·-----r.-------·· ---~ ·---.. --~--.. ----: --------+-----1r· .... .l;~·-· •• ; . .+•-... ~---'--!:...:----. ::~ ! 1 !' ~I :. . 1 ' I ! ! 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"' Q) a. ::l ::l Q) a Q) "' "' ...., LL ::;; .q; ::;; ...., ...., .q; (I) 0 z 0 ...., LL ::;; .q; Notes: • For "Dry Months", projected increases and/or decreases in storage estimated to mimic 2013 cond1t1ons. • For "Wet Months", projected storage declines assume annual downstream release of 4,200 AFY and deliveries of 4, 530 AFY. • For "Wet Months, projected storage increases based on historic trends from actual storm data for the period of 1211993 through 6/2011. • Storage projection for "Wet Months" assume that unsaturated conditions exist. • Monthly rainfall projec!jons assumed to occur during the first week of each month. • Assumed rainfall 100% of average rainfall. ·Average rainfall projection values provided by www.LongRangeWeather.com, and updated 5/6/2015. •State Water stored Is 907.10 AF. G:\Util1t1es\Zone 3\Advisory Commltlee\Reservotr Chart Info ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N N N N N N N .,.: .,.: .,.: .,.: ,.: .,.: .,.: >. c '3 C> a. u > "' ::l ::l Q) 0 ::;; ...., ...., .q; (I) 0 z 6.0 50 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Item 8.j. - Page 4 ATTACHMENT 2 ARROYO GRANDE -PISMO BEACH WATER CONSERVATION JUNE PERFORMANCE REPORT WEBSITE Total Visitors: 1,652 (June) vs. 7,,138 (Campaign to Date) June: • Total Unique Users: 1,335 • Total Page Views: 2,826 • New Visitors: 1,214 (73.5%) • Returning Visitors: 438 (26.5%) • Average TOS (Time on Site): 1:06 • Bounce Rate: 71 % Top Referral Sources (June): • Facebook: 48% • arroyogrande.org: 33% Campaign to Date: • Total Unique Visitors: 5,475 • Total Page Views: 12, 196 • New Visitors: 5,476 (76.7%) • Returning Visitors: 1,662 (23.3%) • Average TOS: 1:09 • Bounce Rate: 71% Top Referral Sources (Campaign to Date): • Facebook: 57% • arroyogrande.org: 25% . . . ADVERTISING Total Impressions: 339,58.8 (June) vs. 1,898,749 (Campaign to Date) -"" " ' PANDORA FACE BOOK DIGITAL BANNER ADS June: June: June: • Impressions: 74,582 • Impressions: 137,893 • Impressions: 127,113 • Clicks to Website: 408 in June : : • Clicks: 1,362 (13% increase) • Click-Thru Rate: .10% vs.383 in May (7% increase) • Click-Thru Rate: .55% Campaign to Date: • Impressions: 1,340,592 • Clicks to Website: 3,592 • Click-Thru Rate: .54% • Runs for June: 840 • Click-Thru Rate: .99% • People Taking Action (liking, sharing etc.): 1,070 Campaign to Date: • Impressions: 365, 769 • Clicks: 3,314 • Click-Thru Rate: .906% • People Taking Action (liking, sharing etc.): n/a CINEMA ADVERTISING • Clicks to Website: 133 Campaign to Date: • Impressions: 192,388 • Click-Thru Rate: .15% • Clicks to Website: 284 • Average Monthly Attendance: 28, 187 • Estimated June Attendance: 40,088 (4 showing daily on 10 screens) SOCIAL MEDIA Total Impressions: 604,357 --" ~ " - FACEBOOK TWIITER June: • Likes: 40 • Total Reach: 25,653 • Engagement: 3% • Page Impressions: 142,924 verdin* a vision for your brand ------------------------------------- Campaign to Date: • Likes: 443 • Total Reach: 194,834 • Engagement: 3% • Page Impressions: 604,357 ~ I [ 1 I I i I I I I ' June: • Total Followers: 28 • New Followers: 14 • Mentions: 1 : ! • User Engagements: 11 ----------• I Campaign to Date: • Total Followers: 28 • New Followers: 57 • Mentions: 8 • User Engagements: 165 3580 Sacramento Dr. #110, San Luis Obispo, CA 93401 t 805/541/9005 f 805/541/9007 verdinmarketing.com Item 8.j. - Page 5 ATTACHMENT 3 SUMMARY Website traffic continues to grow with over 1600 users visiting the page in June alone, with the majority coming from mobile/tablets (66%). The pages with the highest amount of traffic are the rebates, tips and mandatory restrictions pages, showing that people are interested in particpating in conservation and learning ways they can help. Facebook continues to reamin strong with excellent engagement rates and a growing number of likes and followers. Reach is remaining high despite the small target community suggesting that the content being shared is considered useful and engaging to the user. Twitter continues to grow, although at a much smaller pace, which is reflective of the medium acrross all industries. Quality of followers on Twitter always trumphs quanitity, and the Think H20 account has a high quality of users, as the majority of them are local journalists who are actively engaging with the brand. Digital Advertising is consistently bringing in engagement numbers that are much higher than the national average. Pandora is continuing to be an excellent tool for getting out the message, as many people are engaging with the ad and clicking-thru for more information. Digital Ad creative has been updated and we expect this fresh round of advertising to bring in even higher number in July. Beyond the digital advertising, the Regal Cinemas ad was completed and began running on all screens on June 12. The ad runs 40x daily across all screens and June's estimated attendance was over 40,000. A presentation has been completed by Mike de Milo and arrangements are being made to schedule presentations at local service clubs, the Chamber ofCommerce, HOAs, Church Groups, etc. Verdin has also been pricing and designing some large installation marketing pieces, and designing material to use and be distributed at various community water symposiums. All-in-all, the marketing efforts have been a great success as shown by both cities going above and beyond their mandated water conservation numbers from the governor. Conservation is quickly becoming a habit for residents. verdin* a vision for your brand 3580 Sacramento Dr. #110, San Luis Obispo, CA 93401 t 805/541/9005 f 805/541/9007 verdinmarketing.com Item 8.j. - Page 6