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CC 2015-08-25_08j Monthly Water Supply and Demand UpdateMEMORANDUM TO: CITY COUNCIL FROM: GEOFF ENGLISH, DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC WORK~ BY: SHANE TAYLOR, PUBLIC WORKS SUPERVISOR -UTILITIES SUBJECT: MONTHLY WATER SUPPLY, DEMAND AND MARKETING UPDATE DATE: AUGUST 25, 2015 RECOMMENDATION: It is recommended the City Council receive and review the monthly Water Supply, Demand and Marketing Update Report. IMPACT ON FINANCIAL AND PERSONNEL RESOURCES: The cost to provide the report is approximately $500. BACKGROUND: The severe drought continues to impact the City's water supply and demand. As ·a result, the City Council declared a Stage 1 Water Shortage Emergency on May 26, 2015. This monthly update on the current supply and demand statistics will provide the Council with the data required to make decisions related to Emergency Water Shortage Restrictions and Regulations. In addition, a marketing update is included to inform the Council on the thinkh2o campaign. ANALYSIS OF ISSUES: The severe drought continues, however a new rainfall year began in July and we received 1.4" of rain. Lopez Lake is currently at 33% capacity. The Low Reservoir Level Response Plan (LRRP) has been enacted. At the Zone 3 Advisory Board meeting on May 21, 2015, the Board recommended that the deliveries from the Water Treatment Plant be reduced by 10% starting April 1, 2015. This is in advance of the Lake reaching 15,000 AF of storage, which is the automatic reduction trigger. In July the City's water use was 41 % below July 2013. The reduction requirement imposed by the State Water Resources Control Board for Arroyo Grande is 28%. Item 8.j. - Page 1 CITY COUNCIL MONTHLY WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND UPDATE AUGUST 25, 2015 PAGE2 Based on current use and weather patterns, the lake is predicted to reach the 15,000 AF storage level in October 2015 unless the current weather pattern changes. The Lopez supply for water year 2015/16 for Arroyo Grande is 2,942 AF, which includes 883 AF of carry-over water. Based on the projected water demand of 2,300 AF, we expect to be able to meet the demand in water year 2015/16 with minimal groundwater pumping. ADVANTAGES: No advantages noted at this time. DISADVANTAGES: No disadvantages noted at this time. ALTERNATIVES: Not applicable at this time. ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW: No environmental review is required for this item. PUBLIC NOTIFICATION AND COMMENTS: The Agenda was posted in front of City Hall on Thursday, August 20, 2015. The Agenda and staff report were posted on the City's website on Friday, August 21, 2015. Attachments: 1. July 2015 Water Supply and Demand Charts 2. Lopez Reservoir Storage Projections 3. Thinkh2o Report Item 8.j. - Page 2 City of Arroyo Grande Water Supply and Demand Update-July 2015 Rainfall Cumulative Rainfall /ram July 1, 2015 ta July 31st: 1.4 inches Cumulative Rainfall 35.0 30 a ...,. 2s a c ·············· = 200 3! .·· .. ·· ······ ····· c 1s a ;;; 0: 10.0 . . . . . . ,,,,.----- f--------------.. -.-.. -.~ .... .-=---/-..,.-' ,. .,. .. ...i: so 00 -~-·-···-···---~.:.··:..· __ ··~=-.-:-:. :._:__ :.~~ {_:_~~·~:-.:.. .. ~_.:___·· ~ .:.__.:_~__:___:._:_~_ JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN =Average Rainfall Year (1995-1996) • • • • • • Wettest Rainfall Year (1997-1998) -• •Driest Rainfall Year (2013-2014) --2015-2016 Rainfall as of July 31, 2015 Note Prec1pltat1on data from AG Corp Yard Station No 1771 from July 1966 -July 31, 2015 Water Demand Total Cit~ Demand (AFI July 2013 318 9 July 2015 187.3 % Difference from 2013 -41% WY 2013/14 YTD 1,190.1 WY 2015/16 YTD 819.3 % Difference from WY 2013/14 -31% Predicted Supply and Demand WY 2015/16 Predicted Supply and Demand 5,000 4,000 3,000 u. <>: 2,000 1,000 a Lopez EntrtJement (-10%) EJ Lopez Surplus D SMGB Groundwater Allocation W Prsmo Formation Groundwater 51 WY 2015/16 Target Demand Note The Water Year (WY) for water demand is from April to March. Water Supply Lopez Lake I Remammg, Allocated Julv2015 WY 15t_l6 Year to Date ~ Lake Elevation {full at 522 37 ft) 474 31 Storage (full at 49,200 AF) 16,272.4 Storage -Percent Full 33% Status Enacted Current Entitlement Reduction 10% Deliveries (AF) 183.39 162 26 I 2,179 89 Note The Water Year (WY) for Lopez Lake Is from April to March The actual amount of storage In Lopez at the end of July 2015was17,159 AF, however, the storage amount and storage percentage above were adjusted to account for the 886 58 AF of stored State Water Project water In the lake Groundwater July2015 Calendar Year to Date Remammg, Entitlement SMGB Production (AF) 03 32.7 Pismo Formation Production (AF) 3.6 44 0 NA City SMGB average well levels for July 2015 are not available at this time Note Groundwater entitlement and production data Is based on the calendar year 350 300 ~250 ?: u ~200 "' u ~150 c: ., j; 100 ., 0 50 0 Water Supply, Demand and Delivery Chart ,-------------. ---...... , --?' ~. ... ... , ·:· ~ ... ......... ,~ ---..... 'I-..... '!-!o . _J .. . --... _ __,A ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~"-; ,x"-; ~ ~"-; ~"-; ~ ~"-; ~"-; cf"; :>-:>-~..., ~..., ,x..., :>-~..., ~..., ~,~~~~&~~~~,~,~~~ =Lopez Water Available (AF) =Lopez Water Delivery -SMGB Water Pumped (AF) IBllBll Predicted Pismo Formation Production ---Average Demand 2011-2013 (AF) Em Groundwater Allotment Available llllllilll Pismo Formation Water Pumped (AF) = Predicted Lopez Water Delivery lllillill Predicted SMGB Production 1,290 3 6,000 5,000 ~ 4,000~ c 3,000 ~ ., "' 2,000~ c. ::l Vl 1,000 0 Note These production forecasts contain prehmmary estimates of water production and draft predictions of future production based on historical averages ~ -i > 0 :::c s: m z -i Updated: 8/13/2015 ~ Item 8.j. - Page 3 Lopez Reservoir Storage Projections (precipitation scenario source: www.LongRangeWeather.com) 25,000 I ------------------- ,I I 1' ••••• 15,000AF I, I ! l~ Actual Storage (AF) I, ' --• Projected Storage (AF) 22,500 ', ' -Projected Storage Less State Water Stored (AF) : ) :I -===-Preap1tal1on Projection (m) l j -------:----~--------.--- ' 12,500 ,,· 11" : ! ·I· o~ [] · 056 ·l ' " n ' .. ,i: _0.02 I '.10,000 /, ------------------ '<t lO lO ~ lO lO lO lO lO lO lO lO lO co co co 0 0 0 0 c; c; 0 c; c; c; c; c; c; c; c; c; "' "' "' "' "' "' "' N "' N-• "' "' "' "' "' "'· .: ~· .: .: .: .: .: .: ~-.. ,..: ,..: ,..: ,..: ~ ~ u c: ~ ~ a ,.. c: '5 Cl Q. 0 > u c: ~ ~ Q) .. Q) "' .. "' "' Q) 0 Q) "' Q) "' Cl -, lL :2 <( :::? -, ...., <( en 0 z Cl ...., LL :2 Notes. • For "Dry Months", projected increases and/or decreases in storage estimated to m1m1c 2013 conditions. co c; "' .: a <( • For 'Wet Months", projected storage declines assume annual downstream release of 4,200 AFY and deliveries of 4,530 AFY ---- CD c; "' .: >. "' :::? • For 'Wet Months, projected storage increases based on historic trends from actual storm data for the period of 12/1993 through 6/2011_. • Storage projection for 'Wet Months" assume that unsaturated conditions exist. • Monthly rainfall projections assumed to occur dunng the first week of each month. • Rainfall projection provided by www.LongRangeWeather.com, and updated 5/6/2015. •State Water stored 1s 907.10 AF.. • •Evaporation included in storage projection. ,. G.\U!ilities\Zone 3\Advisorfl,u,nmittee\Reservoir Chart Info Revsied. 81212015 6.0 --- UJ co co co co co c; "' c; c; c; c; c; "' "' "' "' "' .: .: .: .: " ~· c: ::I ...., '5 Cl Q. 0 > ...., ::I Q) 0 0 <( en z )> -I -I )> ("') :::c s: ~· m z -I N Item 8.j. - Page 4 Arra11 lrande/Pls111 Be1ch Water C11senlll11 MARKETING SUMMARY -JULY 2015 SUBMITTED -8/14/15 Website Website traffic continues to grow with over 2,800 users visiting the page in July and over 9,000 since the website launched in March. About 75% are new visitors, meaning more and more people are discovering the site everyday. The top performing pages are the homepage, rebates page and conservation tips pages. Almost half of the web traffic is referred from Facebook. Biogs are continuing to be added monthly to the website in order to increase engagement and search engine optimization. Social Media Facebook continues to shine with 54 new fans in July and more than 500 fans overall. Reach remains very high despite the small demographic of the community targeted and engagement rate remains above average as well. Twitter is growing and doubled the amount of followers in July from June, with most being from the local press, governmental agencies and other water agencies. Retweets and engagements are coming from reporters for the San Luis Obispo Tribune and the Santa Maria Times, San Luis Obispo County Government, SLO City News and more. These users have thousands of followers, meaning the messages are getting out to an exponentially higher number of people than just the amount of ThinkH20 followers. Adverlising Digital Advertising is consistently bringing in engagement numbers that are much higher than the national average. Pandora is continuing to be an excellent tool for getting out the message, ( 403 clicks to the website in the month of July) ,as the people engaging with the ad and clicking-thru for more information stayed consistent from June to July. The new creative on Facebook , is directly correlated with the significant increase in response and engagement bringing in 13 6 2 clicks in the month of July, a 71% increase. The Regal Cinema ad runs 40x daily across all screens and July's estimated attendance was over 35,500. Business and communilV Outreach verdin* a vision for your brand 3580 Sacramento Dr. #110, San Luis Obispo, CA 93401 t 805/541/9005 f 805/541/9007 verdinmarketing.com Item 8.j. - Page 5 If D?@ITITD W@!J©JTiffiJ Material and presentations have been created for the South County Water Symposium and additional presentations are currently being arranged. Public Relations regarding new rebates/mandates for Pismo Beach as well as Public Relation for the significant amount of water savings ( 41 % conserved for July in Arroyo Grande) is also occurring. Overall, the marketing efforts are continuing to be successful as shown by the growing numbers of engaged users on the website, social media and digital advertising, as well as the amount of people utilizing the cities rebates and other water conservation programs. This has all helped lead to a substantial decrease in water-consumption by residents of both Arroyo Grande and Pismo Beach. verdin* a vision for your brand 3580 Sacramento Dr. #110, San Luis Obispo, CA 93401 t 805/541/9005 f 805/541/9007 verdinmarketing.com Item 8.j. - Page 6