CC 2016-01-26_09g Water Supply and Demand Update_NovDec2015
MEMORANDUM
TO: CITY COUNCIL
FROM: GEOFF ENGLISH, DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC WORKS
BY: SHANE TAYLOR, PUBLIC WORKS SUPERVISOR – UTILITIES
SUBJECT: MONTHLY WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND UPDATE
DATE: JANUARY 26, 2016
RECOMMENDATION:
It is recommended the City Council receive and review the monthly Water Supply and
Demand Report.
IMPACT ON FINANCIAL AND PERSONNEL RESOURCES:
The cost to provide the report is limited to staff time, which equates to approximately
$500.
BACKGROUND:
The severe drought continues to impact the City’s water supply and demand. As a
result, the City Council declared a Stage 1 Water Shortage Emergency on May 26,
2015. This monthly update on the current supply and demand statistics will provide the
Council with the data required to make decisions related to Emergency Water Shortage
Restrictions and Regulations.
ANALYSIS OF ISSUES:
The severe drought continues, however, a new rainfall year began in July and we have
received 5.4” of rain as of December 31, 2015. Lopez Lake is currently at 28% capacity
(13,835 AF of storage). The Low Reservoir Level Response Plan (LRRP) has been
enacted.
At the Zone 3 Advisory Board meeting on May 21, 2015, the Board recommended that
the deliveries from the Water Treatment Plant be reduced by 10% starting April 1, 2015.
This was done in advance of the Lake reaching 15,000 AF of storage, which is the
automatic reduction trigger. Lopez Lake reached the 15,000 AF storage level around
November 1, 2015.
In November, the City’s water use was 41% below November 2013. In December, the
City’s water use was 42% below December 2013. This significantly exceeds the
Item 9.g. - Page 1
CITY COUNCIL
MONTHLY WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND UPDATE
JANUARY 26, 2016
PAGE 2
reduction requirement imposed by the State Water Resources Control Board for Arroyo
Grande of 28%.
The Lopez supply for water year 2015/16 for Arroyo Grande is 2,942 AF, which includes
883 AF of carry-over water. Based on the projected water demand of 2,300 AF, we
expect to be able to meet the demand in water year 2015/16 with minimal groundwater
pumping.
ADVANTAGES:
No advantages noted at this time.
DISADVANTAGES:
No disadvantages noted at this time.
ALTERNATIVES:
Not applicable at this time.
ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW:
No environmental review is required for this item.
PUBLIC NOTIFICATION AND COMMENTS:
The Agenda was posted in front of City Hall on Thursday, January 21, 2016. The
Agenda and staff report were posted on the City’s website on Friday, January 22, 2016.
Attachments:
1. November/December 2015 Water Supply and Demand Charts
2. Lopez Reservoir Storage Projections
3. Zone 3 - Lopez Project - Monthly Operations Report
Item 9.g. - Page 2
Ci
t
y
of
Ar
r
o
y
o
Gr
a
n
d
e
Wa
t
e
r
Su
p
p
l
y
an
d
De
m
a
n
d
Up
d
a
t
e
‐No
v
e
m
b
e
r
2015
Cu
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e
Ra
i
n
f
a
l
l
fr
o
m
Ju
l
y
1,
20
1
5
to
No
v
e
m
b
e
r
30
t
h
:
3.
8
in
c
h
e
s
L
o
p
e
z
La
k
e
Nov‐15WY 15/16 Year to DateRemaining Allocated Supply
La
k
e
El
e
v
a
t
i
o
n
(f
u
l
l
at
52
2
.
3
7
ft
)
466.79
St
o
r
a
g
e
(f
u
l
l
at
49
,
2
0
0
AF
)
14,160.3
St
o
r
a
g
e
‐
Pe
r
c
e
n
t
Fu
l
l
29%
St
a
t
u
s
Enacted
Cu
r
r
e
n
t
En
t
i
t
l
e
m
e
n
t
Re
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
10%
De
l
i
v
e
r
i
e
s
(A
F
)
136.921,476.33 1,465.82
Gr
o
u
n
d
w
a
t
e
r
Nov‐15Calendar Year to DateRemaining Entitlement
SM
G
B
Pr
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
(A
F
)
3
.
9
4
2
.
6
1
,
2
8
0
.
4
Pi
s
m
o
Fo
r
m
a
t
i
o
n
Pr
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
(A
F
)
0
.
0
4
4
.
0
N
A
Ci
t
y
SM
G
B
av
e
r
a
g
e
we
l
l
le
v
e
l
s
fo
r
No
v
e
m
b
e
r
20
1
5
were 0.23 feet higher than in November 2014.
To
t
a
l
Ci
t
y
De
m
a
n
d
(A
F
)
No
t
e
:
Gr
o
u
n
d
w
a
t
e
r
en
t
i
t
l
e
m
e
n
t
an
d
pr
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
da
t
a
is
ba
s
e
d
on the calendar year.
No
v
e
m
b
e
r
20
1
3
23
7
.
3
No
v
e
m
b
e
r
20
1
5
14
0
.
8
% Di
f
f
e
r
e
n
c
e
fr
o
m
20
1
3
‐41
%
WY
20
1
3
/
1
4
YT
D
2,
3
0
1
.
7
WY
20
1
5
/
1
6
YT
D
1,
5
4
3
.
2
% Dif
f
e
r
e
n
c
e
fr
o
m
WY
20
1
3
/
1
4
‐33
%
No
t
e
:
Th
e
Wa
t
e
r
Ye
a
r
(W
Y
)
fo
r
wa
t
e
r
de
m
a
n
d
is
fr
o
m
Ap
r
i
l
to
Ma
r
c
h
.
No
t
e
:
Pr
e
c
i
p
i
t
a
t
i
o
n
da
t
a
fr
o
m
AG
Co
r
p
Ya
r
d
St
a
t
i
o
n
No
.
17
7
.
1
fr
o
m
Ju
l
y
19
6
6
‐
No
v
e
m
b
e
r
30
,
20
1
5
.
Water Supply
Ra
i
n
f
a
l
l
Pr
e
d
i
c
t
e
d
Su
p
p
l
y
an
d
De
m
a
n
d
Wa
t
e
r
De
m
a
n
d
No
t
e
:
Th
e
Wa
t
e
r
Ye
a
r
(W
Y
)
fo
r
Lo
p
e
z
La
k
e
is
fr
o
m
Ap
r
i
l
to
March. The actual amount of storage in Lopez at the end of November 2015 was 14,178 AF;
ho
w
e
v
e
r
,
th
e
st
o
r
a
g
e
am
o
u
n
t
an
d
st
o
r
a
g
e
pe
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
ab
o
v
e
were adjusted to account for the 17.67 AF of stored State Water Project water in the lake.
No
t
e
:
Th
es
e
pr
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
fo
r
e
c
a
s
t
s
co
n
t
a
i
n
pr
e
l
i
m
i
n
a
r
y
es
t
i
m
a
t
e
s
of water production and draft predictions of future production based on historical
av
e
r
a
g
e
s
.
0.
0
5.
0
10
.
0
15
.
0
20
.
0
25
.
0
30
.
0
35
.
0
JU
L
A
U
G
S
E
P
O
C
T
N
O
V
D
E
C
J
A
N
F
E
B
M
A
R
A
P
R
M
A
Y
J
U
N
Rainfall (in.)
Cu
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e
Ra
i
n
f
a
l
l
Av
e
r
a
g
e
Ra
i
n
f
a
l
l
Ye
a
r
(1
9
9
5
‐19
9
6
)
We
t
t
e
s
t
Ra
i
n
f
a
l
l
Ye
a
r
(1
9
9
7
‐19
9
8
)
Dr
i
e
s
t
Ra
i
n
f
a
l
l
Ye
a
r
(2
0
1
3
‐20
1
4
)
20
1
5
‐20
1
6
Ra
i
n
f
a
l
l
as
of
No
v
e
m
b
e
r
30
,
20
1
5
2,
0
6
1
88
1
1,
3
2
3
16
0
2,
3
0
0
‐
1,
0
0
0
2,
0
0
0
3,
0
0
0
4,
0
0
0
5,
0
0
0
AF
WY
20
1
5
/
1
6
Pr
e
d
i
c
t
e
d
Su
p
p
l
y
an
d
De
m
a
n
d
Lo
p
e
z
En
t
i
t
l
e
m
e
n
t
(‐10
%
)
Lo
p
e
z
Su
r
p
l
u
s
SM
G
B
Gr
o
u
n
d
w
a
t
e
r
Al
l
o
c
a
t
i
o
n
Pi
s
m
o
Fo
r
m
a
t
i
o
n
Gr
o
u
n
d
w
a
t
e
r
WY
20
1
5
/
1
6
Ta
r
g
e
t
De
m
a
n
d
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000
050
10
0
15
0
20
0
25
0
30
0
35
0
Apr‐14
May‐14
Jun‐14
Jul‐14
Aug‐14
Sep‐14
Oct‐14
Nov‐14
Dec‐14 Jan‐15 Feb‐15 Mar‐15 Apr‐15 May‐15 Jun‐15 Jul‐15 Aug‐15 Sep‐15 Oct‐15 Nov‐15 Dec‐15 Jan‐16Supply Remaining (AF)
Deliveries/Capacity (AF)
Wa
t
e
r
Su
p
p
l
y
,
Demand and Delivery Chart
Lo
p
e
z
Wa
t
e
r
Av
a
i
l
a
b
l
e
(A
F
)
Groundwater Allotment Available
Lo
p
e
z
Wa
t
e
r
De
l
i
v
e
r
y
Pismo Formation Water Pumped (AF)
SM
G
B
Wa
t
e
r
Pu
m
p
e
d
(A
F
)
Predicted Lopez Water Delivery
Pr
e
d
i
c
t
e
d
Pi
s
m
o
Fo
r
m
a
t
i
o
n
Pr
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
Predicted SMGB Production
Av
e
r
a
g
e
De
m
a
n
d
20
1
1
‐20
1
3
(A
F
)
Updated: 1/11/2016ATTACHMENT 1 Item 9.g. - Page 3
Ci
t
y
of
Ar
r
o
y
o
Gr
a
n
d
e
Wa
t
e
r
Su
p
p
l
y
an
d
De
m
a
n
d
Up
d
a
t
e
‐De
c
e
m
b
e
r
2015
Cu
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e
Ra
i
n
f
a
l
l
fr
o
m
Ju
l
y
1,
20
1
5
to
De
c
e
m
b
e
r
31
s
t
:
5.
4
in
c
h
e
s
L
o
p
e
z
La
k
e
Dec‐15WY 15/16 Year to DateRemaining Allocated Supply
La
k
e
El
e
v
a
t
i
o
n
(f
u
l
l
at
52
2
.
3
7
ft
)
465.90
St
o
r
a
g
e
(f
u
l
l
at
49
,
2
0
0
AF
)
13,834.9
St
o
r
a
g
e
‐
Pe
r
c
e
n
t
Fu
l
l
28%
St
a
t
u
s
Enacted
Cu
r
r
e
n
t
En
t
i
t
l
e
m
e
n
t
Re
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
10%
De
l
i
v
e
r
i
e
s
(A
F
)
131.841,608.17 1,333.98
Gr
o
u
n
d
w
a
t
e
r
Dec‐15Calendar Year to DateRemaining Entitlement
SM
G
B
Pr
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
(A
F
)
0
.
1
4
2
.
7
1
,
2
8
0
.
3
Pi
s
m
o
Fo
r
m
a
t
i
o
n
Pr
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
(A
F
)
0
.
0
4
4
.
0
N
A
Ci
t
y
SM
G
B
av
e
r
a
g
e
we
l
l
le
v
e
l
s
fo
r
De
c
e
m
b
e
r
20
1
5
were unavailable at the time this report was prepared.
To
t
a
l
Ci
t
y
De
m
a
n
d
(A
F
)
No
t
e
:
Gr
o
u
n
d
w
a
t
e
r
en
t
i
t
l
e
m
e
n
t
an
d
pr
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
da
t
a
is
ba
s
e
d
on the calendar year.
De
c
e
m
b
e
r
20
1
3
22
6
.
6
De
c
e
m
b
e
r
20
1
5
13
1
.
9
% Di
f
f
e
r
e
n
c
e
fr
o
m
20
1
3
‐42
%
WY
20
1
3
/
1
4
YT
D
2,
5
2
8
.
2
WY
20
1
5
/
1
6
YT
D
1,
6
7
5
.
1
% Di
f
f
e
r
e
n
c
e
fr
o
m
WY
20
1
3
/
1
4
‐34
%
No
t
e
:
Th
e
Wa
t
e
r
Ye
a
r
(W
Y
)
fo
r
wa
t
e
r
de
m
a
n
d
is
fr
o
m
Ap
r
i
l
to
Ma
r
c
h
.
No
t
e
:
Pr
e
c
i
p
i
t
a
t
i
o
n
da
t
a
fr
o
m
AG
Co
r
p
Ya
r
d
St
a
t
i
o
n
No
.
17
7
.
1
fr
o
m
Ju
l
y
19
6
6
‐
De
c
e
m
b
e
r
31
,
20
1
5
.
Water Supply
Ra
i
n
f
a
l
l
Pr
e
d
i
c
t
e
d
Su
p
p
l
y
an
d
De
m
a
n
d
Wa
t
e
r
De
m
a
n
d
No
t
e
:
Th
e
Wa
t
e
r
Ye
a
r
(W
Y
)
fo
r
Lo
p
e
z
La
k
e
is
fr
o
m
Ap
r
i
l
to
March. The actual amount of storage in Lopez at the end of December 2015 was 13,847 AF;
ho
w
e
v
e
r
,
th
e
st
o
r
a
g
e
am
o
u
n
t
an
d
st
o
r
a
g
e
pe
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
ab
o
v
e
were adjusted to account for the 12.12 AF of stored State Water Project water in the lake.
No
te
:
Th
e
s
e
pr
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
fo
r
e
c
a
s
t
s
co
n
t
a
i
n
pr
e
l
i
m
i
n
a
r
y
es
t
i
m
a
t
e
s
of water production and draft predictions of future production based on historical
av
e
r
a
g
e
s
.
0.
0
5.
0
10
.
0
15
.
0
20
.
0
25
.
0
30
.
0
35
.
0
JU
L
A
U
G
S
E
P
O
C
T
N
O
V
D
E
C
J
A
N
F
E
B
M
A
R
A
P
R
M
A
Y
J
U
N
Rainfall (in.)
Cu
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e
Ra
i
n
f
a
l
l
Av
e
r
a
g
e
Ra
i
n
f
a
l
l
Ye
a
r
(1
9
9
5
‐19
9
6
)
We
t
t
e
s
t
Ra
i
n
f
a
l
l
Ye
a
r
(1
9
9
7
‐19
9
8
)
Dr
i
e
s
t
Ra
i
n
f
a
l
l
Ye
a
r
(2
0
1
3
‐20
1
4
)
20
1
5
‐20
1
6
Ra
i
n
f
a
l
l
as
of
De
c
e
m
b
e
r
31
,
20
1
5
2,
0
6
1
88
1
1,
3
2
3
16
0
2,
3
0
0
‐
1,
0
0
0
2,
0
0
0
3,
0
0
0
4,
0
0
0
5,
0
0
0
AF
WY
20
1
5
/
1
6
Pr
e
d
i
c
t
e
d
Su
p
p
l
y
an
d
De
m
a
n
d
Lo
p
e
z
En
t
i
t
l
e
m
e
n
t
(‐10
%
)
Lo
p
e
z
Su
r
p
l
u
s
SM
G
B
Gr
o
u
n
d
w
a
t
e
r
Al
l
o
c
a
t
i
o
n
Pi
s
m
o
Fo
r
m
a
t
i
o
n
Gr
o
u
n
d
w
a
t
e
r
WY
20
1
5
/
1
6
Ta
r
g
e
t
De
m
a
n
d
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000
050
10
0
15
0
20
0
25
0
30
0
35
0
Apr‐14
May‐14
Jun‐14
Jul‐14
Aug‐14
Sep‐14
Oct‐14
Nov‐14
Dec‐14 Jan‐15 Feb‐15 Mar‐15 Apr‐15 May‐15 Jun‐15 Jul‐15 Aug‐15 Sep‐15 Oct‐15 Nov‐15 Dec‐15 Jan‐16Supply Remaining (AF)
Deliveries/Capacity (AF)
Wa
t
e
r
Su
p
p
l
y
,
Demand and Delivery Chart
Lo
p
e
z
Wa
t
e
r
Av
a
i
l
a
b
l
e
(A
F
)
Groundwater Allotment Available
Lo
p
e
z
Wa
t
e
r
De
l
i
v
e
r
y
Pismo Formation Water Pumped (AF)
SM
G
B
Wa
t
e
r
Pu
m
p
e
d
(A
F
)
Predicted Lopez Water Delivery
Pr
e
d
i
c
t
e
d
Pi
s
m
o
Fo
r
m
a
t
i
o
n
Pr
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
Predicted SMGB Production
Av
e
r
a
g
e
De
m
a
n
d
20
1
1
‐20
1
3
(A
F
)
Updated: 1/11/2016 Item 9.g. - Page 4
ATTACHMENT 2
Item 9.g. - Page 5
Item 9.g. - Page 6
AT
T
A
C
H
M
E
N
T
3
It
e
m
9.
g
.
-
Pa
g
e
7
It
e
m
9.
g
.
-
Pa
g
e
8