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CC 2016-04-26_09e Water Supply and Demand Update MEMORANDUM TO: CITY COUNCIL FROM: GEOFF ENGLISH, DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC WORKS BY: SHANE TAYLOR, UTILITIES MANAGER SUBJECT: MONTHLY WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND UPDATE DATE: APRIL 26, 2016 RECOMMENDATION: It is recommended the City Council receive and review the monthly Water Supply and Demand Report. IMPACT ON FINANCIAL AND PERSONNEL RESOURCES: The cost to provide the report is limited to staff time, which equates to approximately $500. BACKGROUND: The severe drought continues to impact the City’s water supply and demand. As a result, the City Council declared a Stage 1 Water Shortage Emergency on May 26, 2015. This monthly update on the current supply and demand statistics will provide the Council with the data required to make decisions related to Emergency Water Shortage Restrictions and Regulations. ANALYSIS OF ISSUES: The severe drought continues. We have received 13.3” of rain since July 1, 2015 at the Corporation Yard gauge. Lopez Lake is currently at 29.6% capacity (14,618 AF of storage). The Low Reservoir Level Response Plan (LRRP) has been enacted. At the Zone 3 Advisory Board meeting on May 21, 2015, the Board recommended that the deliveries from the Water Treatment Plant be reduced by 10% starting April 1, 2015. This wa s in advance of the Lake reaching 15,000 AF of storage, which is the automatic reduction trigger. In March the City’s water use was 43% below March 2013. The reduction requirement imposed by the State Water Resources Control Board for Arroyo Grande is 28%. Item 9.e. - Page 1 CITY COUNCIL MONTHLY WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND UPDATE APRIL 26, 2016 PAGE 2 Based on current use and weather patterns, Lopez Lake, as predicted, reached the 15,000 AF storage level around November 1, 2015. The Lopez supply for water year 2016/17, which began April 1, 2016, for Arroyo Grande is 2,998 AF, which includes 936 AF of carry-over water. Based on the projected water demand of 2,300 AF, we will meet the demand in water year 2016/17. ADVANTAGES: No advantages noted at this time. DISADVANTAGES: No disadvantages noted at this time. ALTERNATIVES: Not applicable at this time. ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW: No environmental review is required for this item. PUBLIC NOTIFICATION AND COMMENTS: The Agenda was posted in front of City Hall on Thursday, April 21, 2016. The Agenda and staff report were posted on the City’s website on Friday, April 22, 2016. Attachments: 1. March 2016 Water Supply and Demand Charts 2. Lopez Reservoir Storage Projections 3. Zone 3 - Lopez Project - Monthly Operations Report Item 9.e. - Page 2 Ci t y of Ar r o y o Gr a n d e Wa t e r Su p p l y an d De m a n d Up d a t e ͲMa r c h 20 1 6 Cu m u l a t i v e Ra i n f a l l fr o m Ju l y 1, 20 1 5 to Ma r c h 31 , 20 1 6 : 12 . 4 in c h e s Lo p e z La k e  Ma r Ͳ16 WY 15 / 1 6 Ye a r to DateRemainingAllocatedSupply La k e El e v a t i o n (f u l l at 52 2 . 3 7 ft ) 46 7 . 9 9 St o r a g e (f u l l at 49 , 2 0 0 AF ) 14 , 6 9 9 . 4 St o r a g e Ͳ  Pe r c e n t Fu l l 30 % St a t u s En a c t e d Cu r r e n t En t i t l e m e n t Re d u c t i o n  10 % De l i v e r i e s (A F ) 12 6 . 5 2 1,969.79                               1,028.21 Gr o u n d w a t e r Ma r Ͳ16 Ca l e n d a r Ye a r to DateRemainingEntitlement SM G B Pr o d u c t i o n (A F ) 5. 2 14.51,308.5 Pi s m o Fo r m a t i o n Pr o d u c t i o n (A F ) 0. 0 0.0NA Ci t y SM G B av e r a g e we l l le v e l s fo r Ma r c h 20 1 6 we r e th e sa m e as le v e l s in Ma r c h 20 1 5 .  To t a l Ci t y De m a n d (A F ) No t e : Gr o u n d w a t e r en t i t l e m e n t an d pr o d u c t i o n da t a is ba s e d on th e ca l e n d a r ye a r . Ma r c h 20 1 3 23 0 . 1                                                                                                                  Ma r c h 20 1 6 13 1 . 7                                                                                                                  %Di f f e r e n c e fr o m 20 1 3 Ͳ43 % WY 20 1 3 / 1 4 YT D 3, 1 3 1 . 5                                                                                                               WY 20 1 5 / 1 6 YT D 2, 0 5 1 . 2                                                                                                               %Di f f e r e n c e fr o m WY 20 1 3 / 1 4 Ͳ34 % No t e :  Th e Wa t e r Ye a r (W Y ) fo r wa t e r de m a n d is fr o m Ap r i l to Ma r c h . No t e : Pr e c i p i t a t i o n da t a fr o m AG Co r p Ya r d St a t i o n No . 17 7 . 1 fr o m Ju l y 19 6 6 Ͳ  Ma r c h 31 , 20 1 6 . Wa t e r Su p p l y Ra i n f a l l Pr e d i c t e d Su p p l y an d De m a n d Wa t e r De m a n d No t e : Th e Wa t e r Ye a r (W Y ) fo r Lo p e z La k e is fr o m Ap r i l to Ma r c h . Th e ac t u a l am o u n t of st o r a g e in Lo p e z at theendofMarch2016was14,630AF; ho w e v e r , th e st o r a g e am o u n t an d st o r a g e pe r c e n t a g e ab o v e we r e ad j u s t e d to ac c o u n t fo r th e Ͳ 69 . 9 8 AF ofstoredStateWaterProjectwaterinthelake. No t e : Th e s e pr o d u c t i o n fo r e c a s t s co n t a i n pr e l i m i n a r y es t i m a t e s of wa t e r pr o d u c t i o n an d dr a f t pr e d i c t i o n s offutureproductionbasedonhistorical av e r a g e s .  0. 0 5. 0 10 . 0 15 . 0 20 . 0 25 . 0 30 . 0 35 . 0 JU L A U G S E P O C T N O V D E C J A N F E B M A R A P R M A Y J U N Rainfall(in.) Cu m u l a t i v e Ra i n f a l l Av e r a g e Ra i n f a l l Ye a r (1 9 9 5 Ͳ19 9 6 ) We t t e s t Ra i n f a l l Ye a r (1 9 9 7 Ͳ19 9 8 ) Dr i e s t Ra i n f a l l Ye a r (2 0 1 3 Ͳ20 1 4 ) 20 1 5 Ͳ20 1 6 Ra i n f a l l as of Ma r c h 31 , 20 1 6 2, 0 6 1  93 7  1, 3 2 3  16 0 2, 3 0 0  Ͳ 1, 0 0 0 2, 0 0 0 3, 0 0 0 4, 0 0 0 5, 0 0 0 AF WY 20 1 6 / 1 7 Pr e d i c t e d Su p p l y an d De m a n d Lo p e z En t i t l e m e n t (Ͳ10 % ) Lo p e z Ca r r y Ͳov e r SM G B Gr o u n d w a t e r Al l o c a t i o n Pi s m o Fo r m a t i o n Gr o u n d w a t e r WY 20 1 5 / 1 6 Ta r g e t De m a n d 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000 050 10 0 15 0 20 0 25 0 30 0 35 0 AprͲ14 MayͲ14 JunͲ14 JulͲ14 AugͲ14 SepͲ14 OctͲ14 NovͲ14 DecͲ14 JanͲ15 FebͲ15 MarͲ15 AprͲ15 MayͲ15 JunͲ15 JulͲ15 AugͲ15 SepͲ15 OctͲ15NovͲ15DecͲ15JanͲ16FebͲ16MarͲ16AprͲ16SupplyRemaining(AF) Deliveries/Capacity(AF) Wa t e r Su p p l y , De m a n d an d De l i v e r y Ch a r t Lo p e z Wa t e r Av a i l a b l e (A F ) Gr o u n d w a t e r AllotmentAvailable Lo p e z Wa t e r De l i v e r y Pi s m o Fo r m a t i o n WaterPumped(AF) SM G B Wa t e r Pu m p e d (A F ) Pr e d i c t e d LopezWaterDelivery Pr e d i c t e d Pi s m o Fo r m a t i o n Pr o d u c t i o n Pr e d i c t e d SMGBProduction Av e r a g e De m a n d 20 1 1 Ͳ20 1 3 (A F ) Updated:4/14/2016ATTACHMENT 1 Item 9.e. - Page 3 ATTACHMENT 2 Item 9.e. - Page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h u r s d a y , A p r i l 7 , 2 0 1 6 Page 1 of 1 Re p o r t p r i n t e d b y : Ad m i n Da t a e n t e r e d b y : J . O g r e n ATTACHMENT 3 Item 9.e. - Page 5 THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Item 9.e. - Page 6