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CC 2016-11-22_09f Monthly Water Supply_Demand Update MEMORANDUM TO: CITY COUNCIL FROM: GEOFF ENGLISH, DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC WORKS BY: SHANE TAYLOR, UTILITIES MANAGER SUBJECT: MONTHLY WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND UPDATE DATE: NOVEMBER 22, 2016 RECOMMENDATION: It is recommended the City Council receive and review the monthly Water Supply and Demand Report. IMPACT ON FINANCIAL AND PERSONNEL RESOURCES: The cost to provide the report is limited to staff time, which equates to approximately $350. BACKGROUND: The severe drought continues to impact the City’s water supply and demand. As a result, the City Council declared a Stage 1 Water Shortage Emergency on May 26, 2015. This monthly update on the current supply and demand statistics will provide the Council with the data required to make decisions related to Emergency Water Shortage Restrictions and Regulations. ANALYSIS OF ISSUES: The exceptional drought continues. We have received 2.3” of rain since July 1, 2016 at the Corporation Yard gauge. Lopez Lake is currently at 23% capacity (11,410 AF of storage). The Low Reservoir Level Response Plan (LRRP) has been enacted. At the Zone 3 Advisory Board meeting on May 21, 2015, the Board recommended that the deliveries from the Water Treatment Plant be reduced by 10% starting April 1, 2015. This was in advance of the Lake reaching 15,000 AF of storage, which is the automatic reduction trigger. We are voluntarily reducing deliveries by 20% to keep lake supply above the 10,000 AF level, which mandates an automatic 20% reduction retroactive back to April 1, 2016. Item 9.f. - Page 1 CITY COUNCIL MONTHLY WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND UPDATE NOVEMBER 22, 2016 PAGE 2 In October the City’s water use was 34% below October 2013. The reduction requirement imposed by the State Water Resources Control Board for Arroyo Grande is 28%. Based on current use and weather patterns, Lopez Lake is predicted to reach the 10,000 AF storage level around February 1, 2017. The Lopez supply for water year 2016/17, which began April 1, 2016, for Arroyo Grande is 2,998 AF, which includes 936 AF of carry-over water. Based on the projected water demand of 2,300 AF, we will meet the demand in water year 2016/17. ADVANTAGES: No advantages noted at this time. DISADVANTAGES: No disadvantages noted at this time. ALTERNATIVES: Not applicable at this time. ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW: No environmental review is required for this item. PUBLIC NOTIFICATION AND COMMENTS: The Agenda was posted at City Hall and on the City’s website in accordance with Government Code Section 54954.2. Attachments: 1. October 2016 Water Supply and Demand Charts 2. Lopez Reservoir Storage Projections 3. Zone 3 - Lopez Project - Monthly Operations Report Item 9.f. - Page 2 Ci t y  of  Ar r o y o  Gr a n d e  Wa t e r  Su p p l y  an d  De m a n d  Up d a t e ‐Oc t o b e r  2016 Cu m u l a t i v e  Ra i n f a l l  fr o m  Ju l y  1,  20 1 6  to  Oc t o b e r  31 ,  20 1 6 :  2. 3  in c h e s Lo p e z  La k e   Oc t ‐16 WY  15/16  Year  to  DateRemaining Allocated  Supply La k e  El e v a t i o n  (f u l l  at  52 2 . 3 7  ft ) 458.98 St o r a g e  (f u l l  at  49 , 2 0 0  AF ) 11,064 St o r a g e  ‐   Pe r c e n t  Fu l l 22% St a t u s Enacted Cu r r e n t  En t i t l e m e n t  Re d u c t i o n   20% De l i v e r i e s  (A F ) 164.79 1,045.73  1,722.87   Gr o u n d w a t e r Oc t ‐16 Calendar  Year  to  Date Remaining  Entitlement SM G B  Pr o d u c t i o n  (A F ) 12.7 165.0 1,158.0   Pi s m o  Fo r m a t i o n  Pr o d u c t i o n  (A F ) 5.4 79.0 NA Ci t y  SM G B  av e r a g e  we l l  le v e l s  fo r  Oc t o b e r  20 1 6  we r e  half  a  foot  lower  than  October  2015.  To t a l  Ci t y  De m a n d  (A F ) No t e :  Gr o u n d w a t e r  en t i t l e m e n t  an d  pr o d u c t i o n  da t a  is  ba s e d  on  the  calendar  year. Oc t o b e r  20 1 3 27 6 . 6   Oc t o b e r  20 1 6 18 2 . 9   % Di f f e r e n c e  fr o m  20 1 3 ‐34 % WY  20 1 3 / 1 4  YT D 1, 8 0 8 . 7   WY  20 1 5 / 1 6  YT D 1, 2 7 5 . 2   % Di f f e r e n c e  fr o m  WY  20 1 3 / 1 4 ‐29 % No t e :    Th e  Wa t e r  Ye a r  (W Y )  fo r  wa t e r  de m a n d  is  fr o m  Ap r i l  to  Ma r c h . No t e :  Pr e c i p i t a t i o n  da t a  fr o m  AG  Co r p  Ya r d  St a t i o n  No .  17 7 . 1  fr o m  Ju l y  19 6 6  ‐ Oc t o b e r  31 ,  20 1 6 . Water  Supply Ra i n f a l l Pr e d i c t e d  Su p p l y  an d  De m a n d Wa t e r  De m a n d No t e :  Th e  Wa t e r  Ye a r  (W Y )  fo r  Lo p e z  La k e  is  fr o m  Ap r i l  to  Ma r c h .  The  actual  amount  of  storage  in  Lopez  at  the  end  of  October  2016  was  11,410  AF;  ho w e v e r ,  th e  st o r a g e  am o u n t  an d  st o r a g e  pe r c e n t a g e  ab o v e  we r e  adjusted  to  account  for  the  346.27  AF  of  stored  State  Water  Project  water  in  the   la k e . No t e :  Th e s e  pr o d u c t i o n  fo r e c a s t s  co n t a i n  pr e l i m i n a r y  es t i m a t e s  of  water  production  and  draft  predictions  of  future  production  based  on  historical   av e r a g e s .   0. 0 5. 0 10 . 0 15 . 0 20 . 0 25 . 0 30 . 0 35 . 0 JU L A U G S E P O C T N O V D E C J A N F E B M A R A P R M A Y J U N R a i n f a l l   ( i n . ) Cu m u l a t i v e  Ra i n f a l l Av e r a g e  Ra i n f a l l  Ye a r  (1 9 9 5 ‐19 9 6 ) We t t e s t  Ra i n f a l l  Ye a r  (1 9 9 7 ‐19 9 8 ) Dr i e s t  Ra i n f a l l  Ye a r  (2 0 1 3 ‐20 1 4 ) 20 1 6 ‐20 1 7  Ra i n f a l l  as  of  Oc t o b e r  31 ,  20 1 6 1, 8 3 2   93 7   1, 3 2 3   16 0 2, 3 0 0    ‐  50 0  1, 0 0 0  1, 5 0 0  2, 0 0 0  2, 5 0 0  3, 0 0 0  3, 5 0 0  4, 0 0 0  4, 5 0 0 A F WY  20 1 6 / 1 7  Pr e d i c t e d  Su p p l y  an d  De m a n d Lo p e z  En t i t l e m e n t  (‐20 % ) Lo p e z  Ca r r y ‐ov e r SM G B  Gr o u n d w a t e r  Al l o c a t i o n Pi s m o  Fo r m a t i o n  Gr o u n d w a t e r WY  20 1 5 / 1 6  Ta r g e t  De m a n d 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000 050 10 0 15 0 20 0 25 0 30 0 35 0 A p r ‐ 1 4 M a y ‐ 1 4 J u n ‐ 1 4 J u l ‐ 1 4 A u g ‐ 1 4 S e p ‐ 1 4 O c t ‐ 1 4 N o v ‐ 1 4 D e c ‐ 1 4 J a n ‐ 1 5 F e b ‐ 1 5 M a r ‐ 1 5 A p r ‐ 1 5 M a y ‐ 1 5 Jun‐15 Jul‐15 Aug‐15 Sep‐15 Oct‐15 Nov‐15 Dec‐15 Jan‐16 Feb‐16 Mar‐16 Apr‐16 May‐16 Jun‐16 Jul‐16 Aug‐16 Sep‐16 Oct‐16 Nov‐16Supply Remaining (AF) D e l i v e r i e s / C a p a c i t y   ( A F ) Wa t e r  Su p p l y ,  Demand  and  Delivery  Chart Lo p e z  Wa t e r  Av a i l a b l e  (A F ) Groundwater  Allotment  Available Lo p e z  Wa t e r  De l i v e r y Pismo  Formation  Water  Pumped  (AF) SM G B  Wa t e r  Pu m p e d  (A F ) Predicted  Lopez  Water  Delivery Pr e d i c t e d  Pi s m o  Fo r m a t i o n  Pr o d u c t i o n Predicted  SMGB  Production Av e r a g e  De m a n d  20 1 1 ‐20 1 3  (A F ) Updated: 11/9/2016ATTACHMENT 1 Item 9.f. - Page 3 M a y 1 , 2 0 1 5 J u n 1 , 2 0 1 5 J u l 1 , 2 0 1 5 A u g 1 , 2 0 1 5 S e p 1 , 2 0 1 5 O c t 1 , 2 0 1 5 N o v 1 , 2 0 1 5 D e c 1 , 2 0 1 5 J a n 1 , 2 0 1 6 F e b 1 , 2 0 1 6 M a r 1 , 2 0 1 6 A p r 1 , 2 0 1 6 M a y 1 , 2 0 1 6 J u n 1 , 2 0 1 6 J u l 1 , 2 0 1 6 A u g 1 , 2 0 1 6 S e p 1 , 2 0 1 6 O c t 1 , 2 0 1 6 N o v 1 , 2 0 1 6 D e c 1 , 2 0 1 6 J a n 1 , 2 0 1 7 Feb 1, 2017 Mar 1, 2017 Apr 1, 2017 May 1, 2017 11 , 8 2 9 9,744 1. 5 3 2. 1 8 2.763.37 3.01 0.98 0. 0 0 0. 1 7 4. 4 3 0. 7 4 8. 7 0 2. 8 6 1. 7 4 0. 0 0 0. 0 0 0. 0 0 0. 8 9 0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.010.011.012.013.014.015.016.017.018.019.020.0 4, 0 0 0 6, 5 0 0 9, 0 0 0 11 , 5 0 0 14 , 0 0 0 16 , 5 0 0 19 , 0 0 0 21 , 5 0 0 Monthly Precipitation(in) S t o r a g e ( A F ) Revised: 9/30/2016 No t e s : • F o r " D r y M o n t h s " ( A p r i l - O c t o b e r ) , p r o j e c t e d i n c r e a s e s a n d / o r d e c r e a s e s i n s t o r a g e e s t i m a t e d t o m i m i c c o n d i t i o n s f r o m 2 0 1 5 . • F o r " W e t M o n t h s " ( N o v e m b e r - M a r c h ) , p r o j e c t e d s t o r a g e d e c l i n e s a s s u m e L R R P a n n u a l d o w n s t r e a m r e l e a s e o f 3 , 8 0 0 A F Y a n d d e l i v e ri e s o f 4 , 0 7 7 A F Y . • Fo r " W e t M o n t h s " , p r o j e c t e d s t o r a g e i n c r e a s e s b a s e d o n h i s t o r ic t r e n d s f r o m a c t u a l s t o r m d a t a f o r t h e p e r i o d o f 1 2 / 1 9 9 3 t h r o ug h 6 / 2 0 1 1 . • S t o r a g e p r o j e c t i o n f o r " W e t M o n t h s " a s s u m e t h a t u n s a t u r a t e d c on d i t i o n s e x i s t . • Ra i n f a l l p r o j e c t i o n p r o v i d e d b y w w w . L o n g R a n g e W e a t h e r . c o m , a n d u p d a t e d 7 / 5 / 2 0 1 6 . E v a p o r a t i o n i n c l u d e d i n s t o r a g e p r o j e c t i o n . • P a s t 3 Y e a r A v g . P r o j e c t i o n u s e s h i s t o r i c d a i l y c a p a c i t y c h a n ge s a v e r a g e d f r o m 2 0 1 3 , 2 0 1 4 , 2 0 1 5 Lo p e z   R e s e r v o i r   S t o r a g e   P r o j e c t i o n s (p r e c i p i t a t i o n   s c e n a r i o   s o u r c e :   w w w . L o n g R a n g e W e a t h e r . c o m ) ATTACHMENT 2 Item 9.f. - Page 4 Sa n L u i s O b i s p o C o u n t y F l o o d C o n t r o l a n d W a t e r D i s t r i c t Zo n e 3 - L o p ez P r o j ec t - M o n t h l y O p er a t i o n s R e p ort Oc t o b e r , 2 0 1 6 0. 0 0 No t e : D e l i v e r i e s a r e i n a c r e f e e t . O n e a c r e f o o t = 3 2 5 , 8 5 0 g al l o n s o r 4 3 , 5 6 0 c u b i c f e e t . S a f e y i e l d i s 8 , 7 3 0 ac r e f e e t . "Y e a r t o D a t e " i s J a n u a r y t o p r e s e n t f o r S t a t e w a t e r , A p r i l t o present for Lopez deliveries, and July to present fo r r a i n f a l l . 10 8 7 . 2 4 Ap r i l t o P r e s e n t 2. 7 7 Ar r o y o G r a n d 20 6 1 Lo p e z D a m O p e r a t i o n s La k e E l e v a t i o n ( f u l l a t 5 2 2 . 3 7 f e e t ) 45 8 . 9 8 St o r a g e ( f u l l a t 4 9 2 0 0 a c r e f e e t ) 11 4 1 0 Ra i n f a l l 2. 7 7 Do w n s t r e a m R e l e a s e ( 4 2 0 0 a c r e f e e t / y e a r ) 30 9 . 5 3 Sp i l l a g e ( a c r e f e e t ) 0 Th i s M o n t h Ye a r t o D a t e 21 1 9 . 2 4 0. 0 0 93 6 . 6 0 16 4 . 7 9 En t l . Su r p l u s Us a g e 29 9 7 . 6 0 To t a l Lo p e z W a t e r D e l i v e r i e s 0. 0 0 Oc e a n o C S D 27 2 . 7 71 3 . 1 0 0. 0 0 98 5 . 8 0 45 6 . 1 1 Gr o v e r B e a c h 72 0 30 7 . 9 0 64 . 3 4 10 2 7 . 9 0 55 . 3 3 Pi s m o B e a c h 80 2 . 8 12 2 7 . 6 0 22 . 1 1 20 3 0 . 4 0 68 . 5 6 CS A 1 2 22 0 . 5 39 0 . 2 0 7. 6 8 61 0 . 7 0 1133.88 11 2 0 120.00 45.66 27 5.58591.13 22 7 62.93State Water Deliveries 16 6 7 . 2 4 40 7 7 35 7 5 . 4 0 25 8 . 9 2 76 5 2 . 4 0 1877.16 15 0 1 201.32 To t a l Co n t r a c t o r Di f f e r e n c e ( f e e t ) -6 3 . 3 9 % F u l l 23 . 2 % Co m m e n t s : Re s e r v o i r i s c u r r e n t l y o p e r a t e d under the Low Reservoir Respons e Plan, therefore En t i t l e m e n t s s h o w n r e p r e s e n t a 1 0 % r e d u c t i o n . Su r p l u s w a t e r s h o w n i s a c t u a l l y " C a r r y O v e r " w a t e r a s d e s i g n a t e d in the LRRP and updated pe r B O S M a y 1 0 , 2 0 1 6 D e c l aration of Surplus. 1) O c e a n o s u p p l i e d S t ate Water to Canyon Crest via Arroyo Gra nde's Edna turn out. A total of 2 . 0 3 A F d e l i v e r e d t o C a n y on Crest was added to Oceano's State Water usa g e this month Ap r i l t o P r e s e n t Lo p e z E n t i t l e m e n t + S u r p l u s W a t e r U s a g e 050 10 0 15 0 20 0 25 0 Ja n '1 6 Fe b '1 6 Ma r '1 6 Ap r '1 6 Ma y '1 6 Ju n '1 6 Ju l ' 1 6 A u g '1 6 Se p '1 6 Oc t '1 6 A c r e F e e t January to Present State Water Usage 050 10 0 15 0 Ja n '1 6 Feb '16Mar '16Apr '16May '16Jun '16Jul '16Aug '16Sep '16Oct '16 A c r e F e e t Sa n M i g ue l i t o 106.49 12 7 12.81 Th i s M o n t h % To t a l January to Present UsageThis Month % of Annual RequestUsage% of Annual Request 164.79Total Water Deliveries This Month 62.93 64.34 142.11 13.26 12.81 460.24 An n u a l Re q u e s t 0. 0 0 Us a g e 0. 0 0 0. 0 0 0. 0 0 0. 0 0 % 0. 0 0 0. 0 0 0. 0 0 0. 0 0 0. 0 0 10 8 7 . 2 4 0. 0 0 45 6 . 1 1 55 . 3 3 68 . 5 6 16 6 7 . 2 4 0. 0 0 2211.00SWP DeliveriesSWP DeliveriesChange in Storage 259 57.68 346.27 This Month Stored State Water 0. 0 % 8. 0 % 36 . 3 % 0. 0 % 0. 0 % 8. 9 % 44 . 4 % 2. 8 % 2. 7 % 3. 5 % 11 . 2 % 10.7%101.2%20.7%169.1%27.7%260.4% 6. 4 % 21 . 8 % 13.4%125.1%10.1%83.9% 0. 0 % 0. 0 % 0. 0 % 0. 0 % 0. 0 % 0. 0 % 0. 0 % 0. 0 % 0. 0 % 0. 0 % 52 . 8 % 0. 0 % 63 . 3 % 6. 9 % 31 . 1 % 40 . 9 % 0. 0 % En t i t l e m e n t Su r p l u s Us a g e % Us a g e % En t i t l e m e n t Su r p l u s Us a g e % 288.59 La s t M o n t h S t o r e d S t a t e W a t e r Fr i d a y , N o v e m b e r 0 4 , 2 0 1 6 Page 1 of 1 Re p o r t p r i n t e d b y : Ad m i n Da t a e n t e r e d b y : D. S p i e g e l ATTACHMENT 3 Item 9.f. - Page 5 THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Item 9.f. - Page 6