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CC 2019-08-13_11a Voter Opinion Survey_Potential Ballot Measure
MEMORANDUM TO: CITY COUNCIL FROM: JAMES A. BERGMAN, CITY MANAGER SUBJECT: DISCUSSION AND DIRECTION BY THE CITY COUNCIL RELATED TO PROCURING AN AGREEMENT TO CONDUCT A VOTER OPINION SURVEY FOR A POTENTIAL FUTURE BALLOT MEASURE DATE: AUGUST 13, 2019 SUMMARY OF ACTION: Review information and give direction related to procuring a contract to provide a statistically valid survey of Arroyo Grande voters. IMPACT ON FINANCIAL AND PERSONNEL RESOURCES: $25,000 has been allocated in the FY 2019-20 budget for this item. RECOMMENDATION: It is recommended that the City Council authorize the City Manager to select a professional research firm and enter into an agreement to conduct a statistically valid survey of Arroyo Grande voters related to a potential future ballot measure. BACKGROUND: On May 28, 2019, the Council discussed the City’s revenue in general and potential opportunities to increase revenues in the face of rising business costs. The direction at the close of discussion was for staff to seek more information about the ballot measure process and surveys. At this time staff has made contact with three California firms who specialize in voter surveys and received a proposal from each. A copy of all of the proposals are attached. ANALYSIS OF ISSUES: When considering whether to place a ballot measure before the voters, cities generally undertake the following process: 1. Identify needed services and a lack of funds to provide those services (Completed). 2. Survey a statistically valid sample of residents to objectively evaluate the viability of passing a local ballot measure and to understand voter’s preferences for the funds raised (Current item). 3. Based upon the findings of the survey, the Council can make a decision whether or not to move forward with a ballot measure (Future decision). Item 11.a. - Page 1 CITY COUNCIL DISCUSSION AND DIRECTION BY THE CITY COUNCIL RELATED TO PROCURING AN AGREEMENT TO CONDUCT A VOTER OPINION SURVEY FOR A POTENTIAL FUTURE BALLOT MEASURE AUGUST 13, 2019 PAGE 2 4. If moving forward the City should use the results of the survey to develop clear, resonant ballot label language that effectively communicates how measure funds will be used and how accountability will be provided (Future decision). 5. Conduct legally-permissible public outreach and education (Future decision). 6. Place a measure on the ballot and await election results (Future decision). The three proposals are all from professional firms who have extensive experience working for local governments similar to the City of Arroyo Grande and all three have relevant experience working in the County of San Luis Obispo. Additionally, all three firms came recommended from other local City Managers. Key details of each proposal are listed in the table below: FM3 Godbe True North Research Approach Dual Mode; Online and telephone Dual Mode; Online and telephone Dual Mode; Email and telephone Sample Size 200 or 300 400 300 minimum; more if possible at no extra charge. Length of survey 20 minutes 15, 18, or 20 minutes 17 minutes Deliverables Kick-off meeting with staff; Analysis of survey results and a PowerPoint presentation to Council Kick-off meeting with staff; Topline summary; survey report; PowerPoint presentation to Council Kick-off meeting with staff; Topline summary; survey report; PowerPoint presentation to Council Est. Timeline 35-56 days 55-77 days 54 days Cost $21,000 for 200; $24,000 for 300 $24,875 for 15 min survey; $26,550 for 18 minute survey; $28,150 for 20 minute survey $25,000 The City executive staff has reviewed all proposals and the City Manager has had an initial conversation with each firm. The FY 2019-2020 budget has allocated $25,000 for this survey and staff is prepared to make a final selection and move forward if directed by the Council. ADVANTAGES: Moving forward with a statistically valid survey will assist the Council in identifying community perspectives on services and potential support of a future ballot measure. Item 11.a. - Page 2 CITY COUNCIL DISCUSSION AND DIRECTION BY THE CITY COUNCIL RELATED TO PROCURING AN AGREEMENT TO CONDUCT A VOTER OPINION SURVEY FOR A POTENTIAL FUTURE BALLOT MEASURE AUGUST 13, 2019 PAGE 3 DISADVANTAGES: Contracting with a professional research team requires an outlay ranging from $21,000 to $28,150. ALTERNATIVES: 1. Authorize the City Manager to select a professional research firm and enter into an agreement to conduct a statistically valid survey of Arroyo Grande voters related to a possible future ballot measure; 2. Do not authorize the City Manager to move forward; or 3. Provide other direction to staff. ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW: In accordance with the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and the State CEQA Guidelines, it has been determined that this item is not subject to CEQA Per Section 15061(b)(3) of the Guidelines, regarding the common sense rule that where it can be seen with certainty that there is no possibility of a significant effect on the environment, an activity is not subject to CEQA. PUBLIC NOTIFICATION AND COMMENTS: The Agenda was posted in accordance with Government Code Section 54954.2. ATTACHMENTS: 1. Proposal from FM3 Research 2. Proposal from Godbe Research 3. Proposal from True North Research Item 11.a. - Page 3 Proposal to Provide Voter Opinion Survey Research for Potential City of Arroyo Grande Infrastructure and Services Funding Ballot Measure Contact: Richard Bernard, Ph.D. Partner June 7, 2019 ATTACHMENT 1 Item 11.a. - Page 4 FM3 RESEARCH OF OPINION RESEARCH & STRATEGY Page 2 TO James A. Bergman, City Manager City of Arroyo Grande FROM Dr. Richard Bernard & Adam Sonenshein FM3 Research RE: Proposal to Provide Voter Opinion Survey Research for Potential City of Arroyo Grande Infrastructure and Services Funding Ballot Measure DATE June 7, 2019 Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3) is pleased to submit this proposal to conduct survey research evaluating the viability of a City of Arroyo Grande infrastructure and services funding general purpose ballot measure. The finance measure research FM3 conducts for our local public agency clients is designed to inform the drafting of the most compelling 75-word ballot label summary statements possible. Our research is also tailored to our clients’ unique needs and priorities to identify which educational themes resonate strongest among their constituents when conducting community outreach to inform and engage the public. FM3’s work will determine the feasibility of a potential finance measure and provide a communications roadmap to help the City achieve its strategic objectives. The efficacy of this approach is demonstrated by our firm’s success rate of over 95 percent since its 1981 inception – with a total of 534 local finance measures approved for California agencies in every region of the state – more than any other research firm. This proposal is organized into three sections: Section 1 discusses FM3’s relevant experience; Section 2 summarizes methodological considerations for the research; and Section 3 outlines FM3’s proposed research specifications and estimated costs. 1 RELEVANT EXPERIENCE 1.1 Experience in San Luis Obispo County FM3 has a track record of providing exceptionally-accurate voter opinion research for other communities and public agencies throughout San Luis Obispo County – research that in many cases our clients have successfully utilized to secure voter approval for local finance measures. San Luis Obispo County public agencies that have used FM3’s research to pass tax or bond measures include Cuesta College ($275 million bond Measure L in 2014), the City of Grover Beach (utility users tax Measure O in 2004, ½-cent sales tax Measure X in 2006, and $48 million bond Measure K in 2014), the City of Morro Bay (½-cent sales tax Measure Q in 2006), the Los Osos Community Services District (property assessment financing the construction of a communitywide sewer system in 2001). Moreover, FM3 has been the primary pollster for Arroyo Grande’s neighbor to its north, the City of San Luis Obispo, having conducted a total of eight citywide surveys over the last 19 years. FM3’s surveys for the City have Item 11.a. - Page 5 FM3 RESEARCH Page 3 guided and informed the City’s efforts on three successful local tax measures (½-cent sales tax Measure Y in 2006, ½-cent sales tax extension Measure G in 2014, and cannabis business tax Measure F in 2018, respectively), and have assessed San Luis Obispo residents’ views on a variety of issues including city services, local quality of life, and specific policy matters. Currently, FM3 is scheduled to conduct focus groups and a voter survey to access the viability of a potential sales tax on a future City of San Luis Obispo ballot. FM3 is also no stranger the City of Arroyo Grande, having conducted focus groups in 2011 and a resident survey in 2016 for Arroyo Grande Community Hospital. In addition to our research with your local hospital, FM3 frequently conducts research on the local, countywide, and regional levels on behalf of myriad public agencies and an array of business, nonprofit, advocacy, and political clients in San Luis Obispo County that includes a significant subsample of the City of Arroyo Grande’s voters and residents. These clients have included Cuesta College, Dignity Health, the Land Conservancy of San Luis Obispo County, the Ocean Conservancy, Pacific Gas & Electric, Duke Energy, and San Luis Obispo’s former member of congress Lois Capps, among others. This broad portfolio of work affords FM3 a current perspective on local public opinion in these dynamic and rapidly-evolving times—an advantage we will leverage to improve the quality of the research we design and conduct for the City of Arroyo Grande. 1.2 Municipal Finance Measure Experience in California FM3 is a recognized leader in conducting research that helps California cities objectively evaluate the viability of passing local ballot measures to secure additional revenue. We have worked successfully in over 140 California cities to develop strategies on local measures. Our research identifies the feasibility of a potential ballot measure (or measures); the tax rate and revenue mechanism (sales tax, transient occupancy tax, utility user tax, bond measure, etc.) with the greatest support; how voters would prefer additional revenue to be used; how to phrase the ballot label language, and provides a thematic and communications roadmap for public outreach. In addition to our San Luis Obispo County clients mentioned above, our municipal clients represent a diverse cross-section of large and small cities, including suburban, urban, and rural communities. Furthermore, we work with cities throughout the Central Coast, the Central Valley, the Bay Area, Southern California, and Northern California. We make it a priority to work closely with each city and local stakeholder to design the research because we know every community is different and requires a customized approach that addresses its own unique characteristics and needs. The following 123 California cities have engaged FM3’s research and consulting services since 2008 and received voter approval on ballot measures to fund city services and programs: Alameda, Antioch, Arvin, Bakersfield, Bellflower, Benicia, Berkeley, Big Bear Lake, Burbank, Capitola, Carson, Carpinteria, Canyon Lake, Cathedral City, Chowchilla, Clearlake, Cloverdale, Coachella, Commerce, Compton, Covina, Culver City, Daly City, Delano, Desert Hot Springs, Diamond Bar, Dinuba, Downey, East Palo Alto, El Monte, Fountain Valley, Galt, Gardena, Garden Grove, Gilroy, Glendale, Grover Beach, Hawthorne, Healdsburg, Hemet, Hercules, Hollister, Huntington Beach, Indio, Inglewood, Kingsburg, La Puente, Lakeport, Lakewood, Laguna Beach, La Mesa, La Habra, Lathrop, Larkspur, Lawndale, Long Beach, Los Angeles, Los Banos, La Quinta, Lynwood, Marina, Martinez, Menifee, KEY FACT: Since 2008, FM3’s research has been used by 123 California cities, including 13 Central Coast cities, that passed local finance measures. Item 11.a. - Page 6 FM3 RESEARCH Page 4 Merced, Milpitas, Monterey, Moreno Valley, Mountain View, National City, Norco, Norwalk, Oakland, Orinda, Oxnard, Pacific Grove, Palo Alto, Palm Desert, Palm Springs, Paramount, Pasadena, Pittsburg, Pomona, Porterville, Redondo Beach, Reedley, Riverside, Rohnert Park, Roseville, Sacramento, San Anselmo, San Bernardino, San Francisco, San José, San Luis Obispo, Sanger, Santa Ana, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Santa Fe Springs, San Juan Capistrano, Santa Barbara, Santa Monica, Santa Paula, Santa Rosa, Sausalito, Seal Beach, Seaside, Selma, South El Monte, South Gate, South Pasadena, Stanton, Stockton, St. Helena, Sunnyvale, Temecula, Vallejo, Ventura, Visalia, Wasco, West Hollywood, Westminster, and Wildomar. In the most recent statewide general election in November 2018, FM3’s research helped 37 California cities, including Alameda, Antioch, Bakersfield, Burbank, Carpinteria, Canyon Lake, Chowchilla, Covina, Culver City, Daly City, Diamond Bar, Garden Grove, Glendale, Hemet, La Puente, Lawndale, Los Banos, Martinez, Milpitas, Monterey, Moreno Valley, Mountain View, Norco, Palo Alto, Pasadena, Pomona, Porterville, Roseville, Sacramento, San Francisco, San José, San Luis Obispo, Santa Ana, Santa Fe Springs, Santa Paula, Sunnyvale, and Wildomar pass ballot measures to provide funding for local public services. In addition to determining overall support for a proposed ballot measure, our survey research tests voter preferences for the funds raised. This research provides our clients with a greater understanding of the public’s priorities, allowing each city to craft its measure to align with residents’ specific preferences and needs. We have adapted our experience in this field to the needs of local governments that seek voter approval for both capital and operational budget increments. 2 RESEARCH APPROACH & METHODOLOGY FM3 recommends using a dual-mode, online and telephone (landline and wireless) survey with 200-300 responses, averaging 20 minutes per respondent. This dual-mode approach has been successful, as the last several years have ushered significant changes in the ways many Americans use telephones and other communication technologies. The dramatic rise in the use of caller I.D. and similar features has led to an unprecedented increase in individuals screening their calls. At the same time, the use and prevalence of the internet has exploded as an ever-increasing proportion of the population has access through their smartphone or another mobile device. These changes have had a significant impact on the discipline of public opinion research. While the traditional methodology of conducting randomized telephone surveys continues to provide highly- accurate data on public sentiments in a cost-effective manner, the rise of call-screening behavior presents growing challenges. The contemporary approach for gathering statistically-reliable data is to employ the traditional telephone survey methodology alongside the latest online survey applications. Combining the data from the telephone and online surveys produces an all-inclusive, representative sample of the population of interest. Though a relatively recent innovation, FM3’s dual mode surveys have demonstrated their precision throughout the course of the 2016, 2017, and 2018 election cycles, providing accurate information on more than 100 successful local ballot measures throughout California. Item 11.a. - Page 7 FM3 RESEARCH Page 5 Figure 1 below depicts the basic steps involved when FM3 conducts a dual-mode voter survey. To simplify the graphic, it depicts a hypothetical 10-interview survey. Figure 1: Dual-Mode Voter Survey Methodology Item 11.a. - Page 8 Dual-Mode Voter Survey Example (1 O Interview Example) I t J t T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 HHIHIH \_~ @ •~ II IIHHH ~-------__J • 1111111111 FM3 identifies and models the overall vote r unive rse. FM3 pulls a random sample of 10 stratified cluste rs of likely voters; each cluster contains voters wi th similar demographic /geog raphic characteristics. FM3 emails those with email addresses, inviting them to take the onl ine survey. FM3 identifies which clusters have completed online in terviews . FM3 completes telephone interviews with voters in the rema ining clusters to ensure a representative sample of likely voters . FM3 RESEARCH Page 6 FM3 is prepared to begin work on the voter survey immediately upon the approval of the City, and we would approach it in the same three distinct phases: research design, data collection, and data analysis and reporting. As shown in Figure 2, the entire process would take approximately 5-8 weeks, though we would be happy to extend or compress the timeline to best meet your needs. Furthermore, at the conclusion of Phase 3, FM3 would remain available for ongoing consultation and any further analysis and presentation of the research, as needed. Figure 2: Dual-mode Voter Survey Phases & Timeline •Review necessary background materials •Draft, refine, and finalize survey questionnaire •Draft, refine, and finalize invitation email •Finalize sample parameters and order/prep sample •Program and test survey questionnaire Phase 1 -RESEARCH DESIGN -(2-3 weeks) •Send email invitations and email reminders (as necessary) •Analyze demographics of online survey respondents •Initiate and conduct telephone interviews •Continually review responses and sample quotas •Begin development of cross-tabulated report structure Phase 2 -DATA COLLECTION -(1-2 weeks) •Generate topline survey results •Generate cross-tabulated results •Conduct statistical analysis •Generate PowerPoint presentation of key findings, conclusions, and actionable recommendations •Present findings Phase 3 -DATA ANALYSIS & REPORTING -(2-3 weeks) Item 11.a. - Page 9 FM3 RESEARCH Page 7 3 PROPOSED RESEARCH SPECIFICATIONS & ESTIMATED COSTS Research Methodology Dual-mode voter survey Data Collection Mode Telephone and online interviews Respondent Contact Method Telephone calls + Email invitations Sample 200 to 300 voters registered in the City of Arroyo Grande likely to vote in the November 2020 election Margin of Sampling Error ±6.9 percent in 95 out of 100 cases for a sample of 200 interviews ±5.7 percent in 95 out of 100 cases for a sample of 300 interviews Questionnaire 20-minute survey, featuring between 45 and 60 unique questions (including battery question items and demographic questions) Deliverables Following the completion of the survey, we will provide: • A final survey questionnaire for easy reference • A complete analysis of survey results in PowerPoint • A presentation of the survey results FM3 will also be available for ongoing consultation and any further analysis of the research. Cost Figure 3 contains the total estimated costs for this research. These prices are comprehensive, and include all costs for questionnaire design, sample acquisition and preparation, programming, email invitations, survey hosting, telephone interviewing, data entry and analysis, and reporting. Travel is not included but will be billed if incurred. 1 Figure 3: City of Arroyo Grande Dual Mode Voter Survey Costs Sample Size Cost n=200 $21,000 n=300 $24,000 1 If roundtrip travel is required, travel will be billed at cost and mileage will be based on 2019 IRS Business mileage rates. We estimate a roundtrip by car is 234 miles at a cost of $194, with a one-night stay in a hotel of no more than $200. Item 11.a. - Page 10 FM3 RESEARCH Page 8 We would welcome the opportunity to work with you on this research. If you have any questions or if there is any further information we can provide, please do not hesitate to contact us. Thank you for your consideration. You may reach us in our Los Angeles office as follows: Richard Bernard, Ph.D., Partner Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3) 12100 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 350 Los Angeles, CA 90025 (310) 828-1183 (Office) Bernard@FM3Research.com Adam Sonenshein, Vice President Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3) 12100 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 350 Los Angeles, CA 90025 (310) 828-1183 (Office) Adam@FM3Research.com Item 11.a. - Page 11 FM3 RESEARCH PROPOSAL TO CONDUCT A REVENUE MEASURE FEASIBILITY SURVEY Presented to the City of Arroyo Grande June 26, 2019 ATTACHMENT 2 Item 11.a. - Page 12 GODBE RESEARCH Gain Insight City of Arroyo Grande Proposal to Conduct a Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey Godbe Research Page 1 PROFILE AND EXPERIENCE Godbe Research Profile Legal Name & Corporate Address of Company Godbe Corporation -- DBA: Godbe Research 1575 Old Bayshore Highway Suite 102 Burlingame, CA 94010 p. 650-288-3020 f. 650-288-3003 w. www.godberesearch.com Year Founded Godbe Research was founded in January of 1990. Legal Form of Company Godbe Research is a corporation and is in good standing with the California Secretary of State. Godbe Research has never declared bankruptcy, has never been a defendant in any criminal or civil litigation or arbitration, and has never defaulted in the performance of a contract. Finally, Godbe Research is not a subsidiary of any ‘parent company’. Corporate and Project Office: Godbe Research maintains three offices, including our corporate office in Burlingame, CA; as well as project offices in Reno, NV and Bellevue, WA. All work for the City of Arroyo Grande (Arroyo Grande or City) under this proposal will be performed from our corporate Burlingame office from which Bryan Godbe (President) and Charles Hester (Vice President) are based. Number of Employees Godbe Research has a total of six (6) employees. Four employees work from our Burlingame, CA corporate office, and we have one employee each in our Reno, NV and Bellevue, WA offices. Services Provided Godbe Research is a full-service voter/property owner polling and public opinion research agency. We offer expertise in all accepted quantitative (telephone, Internet, mail and Intercept) and qualitative (focus groups, one-on-one interviews, triads) research methodologies, as well as hybrid studies (more than one methodology) and research consulting. Godbe Research does not provide political consulting, financial advisory/underwriting, bond counsel, strategic planning, or other services that are in conflict of interest with the ballot measure and assessment feasibility and other voter survey processes by having future project dollars tied to the results and recommendations from our studies. Litigation, Arbitration & Bankruptcy Statement Godbe Research has never filed for bankruptcy during the life of the firm and has never been a defendant in any litigation, past or current. In addition, we have never in the life of the firm had a contract terminated for cause, nor have we been subject to any arbitration regarding any project, contract, or client. Item 11.a. - Page 13 City of Arroyo Grande Proposal to Conduct a Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey Godbe Research Page 2 Additional Information Formed in 1990, Godbe Research is a California Office of Small Business and DVBE Certification and Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA) certified Small Business Enterprise (SBE) and is an equal opportunity employer. Godbe Research Experience Godbe Research, a State of California certified small business (SBE), was founded in January of 1990. The firm is a full-service public opinion research and elections polling agency that offers its clients extensive experience in public opinion research for ballot and revenue measure feasibility, property owner assessment feasibility, community needs assessments, resident and voter priorities, public education and outreach strategies, strategic and general planning efforts, resident and user satisfaction, public sector marketing efforts, and other customized client needs. Our offices in Burlingame, CA (Corporate/ California), Reno, NV (Southwest), and Bellevue, WA (Northwest) house a staff of highly trained and experienced researchers and a commitment to providing superior quality research and client services. The firm has been employed by public and private sector clients, throughout the United States and internationally, and the combined expertise of the Godbe Research team spans over 50 years in the field of public opinion research. Our Team consists of the President and Principal Researcher (Bryan Godbe), Vice President (Charles Hester), and a staff of Senior Research Managers, Senior Statistical Analysts, Research Analysts, and Research Associates. Each team member has the education and experience commensurate with their position at Godbe Research, and the team regularly teaches, authors, and speaks in the field of survey research. In short, you will not find a more experienced and educated team in public opinion research. Godbe Research has conducted more than 2,800 research projects for local government agencies since our founding in 1990. In fact, we have specific experience with voter polling more than 400 successful California local government revenue measure processes (more than $48 billion in funding), including general obligation bonds, sales taxes, parcel taxes, utility users taxes (UUT), transient occupancy taxes (TOT), business license taxes (BLT), and other funding mechanisms in general, special, and all mail ballot election cycles. Moreover, given our approach to revenue measure feasibility and community priorities, we never push a client towards an outcome not warranted by our voter polling. Thus, the cumulative win rate for our clients during our 28+ years as a firm is 93% for those clients who we have recommended moving forward with a revenue measure and our accuracy rate for November 2018 was 97% (30 out of 31). In terms of voter and other public opinion research studies to specifically address revenue measure feasibility and/or community priorities for California public sector agencies, Godbe Research has conducted recent (since 2008) polling projects leading to successful outcomes for the clients such as the City of Santa Maria (2018 & 2012 sales tax), City of Grover Beach (2018 TOT and BLT), City of Santa Rosa (2018 sales tax), City of Morgan Hill (2018 TOT & BLT), City of Hayward (2018 RPTT), City of Albany (2018 sales tax & parcel tax, 2012 sales tax, and 2009 bond), City of Roseville (2018 sales tax), Town of Los Gatos (2018 sales tax and 2016 TOT), City of Hayward (2018 RPTT, 2016 & 2009 UUT’s and 2014 sales tax), City of Lodi (2018 sales tax), City of Belmont (2018 TOT and 2016 sales tax), City of Campbell (2018 bond, 2017 BLT, 2010 TOT & BLT and 2008 sales tax), City of Newark (2016 & 2012 sales taxes), City of Pleasant Hill (2016 sales tax), City of San Leandro (2016 BLT & Cannabis tax and 2014 sales tax), City of Fairfield (2016 sales tax), City of Novato (2015 & 2010 sales taxes and 2006 bond), City of Burlingame (2016 sales tax), City of San Mateo (2015 sales tax), City of Watsonville (2014 sales tax), City of Salinas (2014 & 2012 sales taxes and 2014 UUT), City of Concord (2014 & 2010 sales taxes), City of Richmond (2014 sales tax), City of Cupertino (2011 sales tax and 2010 Item 11.a. - Page 14 City of Arroyo Grande Proposal to Conduct a Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey Godbe Research Page 3 UUT), Town of Corte Madera (2013 sales tax), Town of Moraga (2012 sales tax), and dozens of others. We are also currently working with or have recently worked with clients such as the Oceano Community Services District, City of Watsonville, City of Menlo Park, City of Elk Grove, City of Los Altos, City of El Cerrito, City of San Rafael, City of Sunnyvale, City of Union City, City of San Bruno, and others on revenue measure/voter polling for election cycles in 2019 and 2020. As an organization, Godbe Research is a small business (less than 10 employees) and we manage our commitments wisely. This means managing our project load so that our President (Bryan Godbe) or Vice President (Charles Hester) can be directly involved in each project we conduct at the project manager level. Similarly, we do not take on so many projects that we need to move team members or remove team members from current projects. Thus, Godbe Research is committed to allocating the team members outlined in this proposal for the duration of this voter survey, including having Bryan Godbe or Charles Hester as project manager and day to day contact for the City of Arroyo Grande. Below is a diagram of the overall research process we undertake as part of our typical revenue measure feasibility and other voter surveys. While each of our studies is highly customized based on our client’s needs, we follow this process for each of our quantitative (and a similar process for qualitative) studies. We are here with you throughout the process and even after the survey has been completed as we understand that our research studies can feed into revenue measure strategic planning, public education and outreach, stakeholder engagement, financial review, and other activities that can take an addition six to eighteen months to culminate once the survey portion of the overall revenue measure process has been completed. Item 11.a. - Page 15 Post-Project • Support Kick Off ~ Presentation of Findings , Analysis & Reporting Field Survey 'II Translate, Pretest &CATI Review Existing Data • Draft Questionnaire Develop Sample Design City of Arroyo Grande Proposal to Conduct a Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey Godbe Research Page 4 PROJECT TEAM Reliable survey results depend on having a firm that understands the complexities and nuances of survey research design, including sampling theory of voters, questionnaire and skip pattern design, weighting schemes, and multivariate data analysis. Indeed, although it can appear easy to conduct a voter survey, it is in fact very difficult to design and conduct a survey where the resulting data are reliable measures of the opinions and behaviors one intends to measure, and the data can be accurately projected to the larger population of interest. The team at Godbe Research is comprised of recognized experts in survey research design and implementation, and for Arroyo Grande, we will assign our most experienced team members with the ability to add more should the need arise. For example, our Project Manager for this project, Bryan Godbe (President) or Charles Hester (Vice President) have designed and conducted over 200 survey research projects in the past three years alone, including dozens of voter surveys specifically related to sales tax measure feasibility. Bryan or Charles will execute all stages of the survey process for the City, including sampling design and questionnaire development, overall project management, analysis, reporting, and presentations, and will be the day-to-day contact from Godbe Research. Charles or Bryan will be assisted by other Godbe Research team members, as necessary and a brief resume for Bryan has been provided below. Bryan Godbe, M.A. President and Principal Researcher President and Founder of Godbe Research, Mr. Godbe has over 20 years of experience in public opinion research, public relations and government affairs. In this capacity, he has conducted public opinion and market research projects at the national, state, and local levels including projects for the Cities of Portland (Oregon), Tacoma (Washington), Henderson (Nevada), San Francisco, San Diego, Los Angeles, Sacramento, and San Jose (California). Mr. Godbe received a Silver Anvil Award from the Public Relations Society of America for the development and implementation of an outstanding government affairs program on behalf of the Contra Costa Water District for a larger water storage infrastructure ballot measure project. This program was based on Mr. Godbe's extensive research including baseline research, focus groups and three tracking polls. In addition, Mr. Godbe has also recently worked with the City of Grover Beach, Oceano Community Services District, City of Santa Maria, City of Watsonville, City of Salinas, City of San Rafael, City of San Mateo, and others on voter surveys designed to evaluate the feasibility of revenue measures. Prior to founding the firm, Mr. Godbe was Vice President of Research at a California based public relations firm. Mr. Godbe also previously served as the Senior Research Consultant at the Center for the Study of Los Angeles, at Loyola-Marymount University. He has a Master’s Degree from the University of Michigan where he studied survey research methodology at the Institute for Social Research; and a B.A. degree from the University of California, Berkeley. Charles Hester Vice President As the firm’s Vice President, Mr. Hester has more than 20 years of experience in public opinion and market research as well as in project management, client and partner relations, data analysis, and business development. During his 19 years at Godbe Research, Mr. Hester has been a manager, director, and most recently vice president, and has been instrumental in the success of the firm’s three primary office locations in California, Nevada, Item 11.a. - Page 16 City of Arroyo Grande Proposal to Conduct a Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey Godbe Research Page 5 and Washington State. He has also been responsible for the strategy and scoping of all of the quantitative and qualitative research studies conducted by Godbe Research for the past 10 years and has managed many of firm’s highest profile research studies. Charles recently managed the 2013 West Hollywood Community Mail and Internet Survey as part of a project team for the larger 2013 West Hollywood Community Study. The larger Community Study won Project of the Year at the 2013 International Association of Public Participation (IAP2) conference in Salt Lake City. In addition, Charles has recently managed voter research studies for clients such as the City of Davis, City of San Bruno, City of Roseville, City of Santa Cruz, City of Elk Grove, City of Santa Barbara, and others. Prior to joining Godbe Research, Mr. Hester held similar positions at other firms and he also previously started and sold a small business in Long Beach, California. Mr. Hester received his Bachelor of Science degree in Economics from the University of California at Riverside. Item 11.a. - Page 17 City of Arroyo Grande Proposal to Conduct a Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey Godbe Research Page 6 PROPOSED SCOPE OF WORK Godbe Research is a recognized leader in opinion and market research for California cities, school districts, counties, library districts, park and recreation districts, special districts, and other local government agencies. Given our experience, we understand that each project’s ultimate success depends on recognizing the individual and unique needs of our clients and then developing a customized project plan to address these specific needs. To this end, we have crafted the following general project work plan for the City of Arroyo Grande to illustrate the types of considerations that go into each of our voter survey projects for our municipal clients. Research Objectives Before beginning any survey process, Godbe Research spends significant time reviewing the client’s research objectives to choose the most appropriate research design. Based on our experience with dozens of successful revenue measure surveys, Godbe Research understands that there are several potential research objectives to be addressed by this specific survey, the most important of which will likely include: determining and ranking issues of importance to Arroyo Grande voters; evaluating the spending priorities of the voting electorate in Arroyo Grande vis- à-vis the range of City-provided services; determining baseline and informed support for a potential future sales tax measure in the City; identifying the maximum tax threshold supported by the necessary percentage of City voters for a potential future sales tax measure; evaluating and ranking the types of projects and services that the potential sales tax measure could fund in the City even among the City’s general fund; examining the impact of various statements on support for the potential future sales tax measure (arguments ‘for’ and ‘against’ the measure); evaluating the election cycle(s) of interest and opportunity to the City for a potential future sales tax measure; determining a preferred duration for a potential future sales tax measure; collecting demographic information on voters in Arroyo Grande not already contained in the voter file for profiling and segmentation purposes, and; additional research objectives to be refined between the City and Godbe Research. Methodology and Sampling Design Discussion Given the fact that telephone-only surveys (even surveys including cell phone-only voters) are continuing to see a decline in response rates in general and by certain demographic subgroups, as well as our specific experience with this phenomenon for agencies throughout San Luis Obispo County and in California in general, it is our recommendation that the City of Arroyo Grande conduct a hybrid Internet and telephone survey for this specific survey of City voters. Godbe Research pioneered this process for numerous clients over the past few years to acknowledge and counteract declining response rates for telephone surveys among Item 11.a. - Page 18 City of Arroyo Grande Proposal to Conduct a Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey Godbe Research Page 7 certain demographic subgroups as well as to leverage technologies that are preferred among various demographic subgroups. Moreover, we are recommending a hybrid quantitative survey approach using an Internet survey as our primary data collection method and an email and text-based recruitment strategy. We will then supplement the Internet version of the survey with a telephone survey methodology, after a review of Internet survey respondent demographics where we can identify and account for potential demographic sub-groups that might not respond adequately to the Internet version of the survey. The sample for all interviews will come directly from the State voter file and San Luis Obispo County Registrar of Voters, where we have self-reported phone numbers as well as email addresses, and we know that a given respondent lives specifically in the City of Arroyo Grande. Godbe Research more than a hundred clients who have used or transitioned to the hybrid survey approach since we pioneered this process in early-2013 to evaluate ballot and revenue measure feasibility with success on Election Day. This includes clients such as the City of Campbell, City of Grover Beach, City of Santa Maria, City of Watsonville, City of Salinas, City of Roseville, and almost every other Godbe Research voter survey client since we moved to this model. Our hybrid methodological approach will cost effectively allow us to collect data from Arroyo Grande voters based on how potential respondents prefer to interact with various survey response technologies in order to maximize our sample size and statistical validity for the survey, not to mention accurate demographic and geographic representation of voters in the City. Finally, for the for both portions (Internet and telephone) of the overall survey, we will also make sure to include ‘cell phone only’ voters given that we can identify cell phone exchanges within the voter sample as well as conduct third party matching, which will help us with both the Internet (text to Internet) and telephone (cell phone calls) modules. Thus, given our hybrid methodology and sampling frame, we will have the most inclusive survey process possible, while still allowing only Arroyo Grande registered voters in the election cycle(s) of interest (e.g. November 2020) to participate in the voter survey process. Scope of Work Below, Godbe Research has crafted a general scope of work for the City to illustrate the types of considerations that go into each of our research studies. While each of our voter survey projects is customized to the needs of a given client, there is a specific and proven process to conducting public opinion research to evaluate revenue measure feasibility. Accordingly, specific services for the survey project for Arroyo Grande are thus envisioned to include: Conducting an in-person project kick-off meeting with the City and other project stakeholders that Arroyo Grande wishes to include (e.g. financial advisor, outreach consultant, citizens or project sub-committee, etc.), as well as conference calls to discuss the research objectives and other aspects of the survey in general. Reviewing voter, property owner, and resident demographics in the City of Arroyo Grande, any related previous opinion research data, and other information such as the results of previous revenue or ballot measures that will help to inform and support this specific survey process. Designing and refining a survey instrument of approximately 15 to 20-minutes in length so that it addresses the research objectives of the City as it related to the feasibility of a potential future sales tax. This is done through an iterative process between Godbe Research and the City of Arroyo Grande with multiple points for input, review, and approval prior to finalizing the survey. Item 11.a. - Page 19 City of Arroyo Grande Proposal to Conduct a Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey Godbe Research Page 8 The survey will be designed to be formatted for both Internet and telephone survey modalities as a ‘hybrid survey’ and both versions of the survey will be identical, save for instructions specific to each modality. Programming, refining, and testing the Internet version of the survey instrument using our Internet survey software package. This will be done by our team of IT and programming experts. CATI programming the survey version of the survey instrument for efficient and accurate data collection, and training telephone interviewing personnel on the questionnaire and interviewing protocol. For our telephone interviewing projects, Godbe Research uses only live interviewers who have been trained on the survey questionnaire and who are located in the western United States. Pre-testing the survey instrument in both modalities to ensure that the questions and response codes are understandable to respondents, and to ensure that the survey length coincides with the budgeted survey length for the project. Training telephone interviewing personnel on the telephone survey questionnaire and interviewing protocol through an intensive training session. Development of a recruitment email and recruitment text for the Internet version of the survey and working with the City so that Godbe Research can send recruitment emails to voters with known email addresses obtained directly through the voter file. Finally, we can also match any internal email or other contact lists that the City has to the voter file, so that we can include additional voters that do not have email addresses and/or cell phones on file with the voter file. Similar to the contact information provided in the voter file, any identifying information will be redacted prior to data processing and analysis to preserve respondent anonymity and confidentiality. As a final note, the recruitment email should be signed by the City Manager or Finance Director to convey the importance of the survey to Arroyo Grande voters and the email will come from the City’s recognizable @arroyogrande.org email domain so that voters do think the email is spam or potentially malware. Development of a stratified and clustered listed sample of voters in the City of Arroyo Grande. The voters would be likely to vote in the November 2020 Presidential general election cycle, which would provide the City with a general tax opportunity, although it is also possible to look at other election cycles such as March 2020 if the City is also considering a potential special sales tax measure. The listed sample will primarily be constructed using email addresses and cell phone numbers from the voter file, as the Internet modality will be conducted first in the hybrid survey process. Once we have developed the Internet sample, the rest of the sample will be de-duplicated by matching names, addresses, and phone numbers from Internet survey respondents to those in the voter file. We will then remove any voter from the telephone survey sample who previously completed the survey via the Internet. Further, we will ask telephone survey respondents in that sample if they have already completed the survey via the Internet and will remove those from the survey process through a screening question. Item 11.a. - Page 20 City of Arroyo Grande Proposal to Conduct a Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey Godbe Research Page 9 For review, we have identified that there are a total of approximately 12,388 total registered voters in the City of Arroyo Grande. Within the voter file, we have known email addresses for approximately 4,254 voters or just over one-third (34%) of the total voting electorate. We also have cell phone numbers for approximately 3,157 Arroyo Grande voters or just over one-quarter (26%) of all voters. Finally, for comparison, we have landline telephone numbers for approximately 5,939 voters in Arroyo Grande, which represents just under one-half (49%) of voters in the City. Given the range in contact information among Arroyo Grande voters, a hybrid survey approach is certainly recommended for this specific project. Conducting approximate 15 to 20-minute Internet and telephone interviews with approximately 400 (n=400) total voters in the City of Arroyo Grande according to a strict interviewing protocol and our approved sampling design. A sample size of 400 voters would provide for a margin of error of no greater than +/-4.9% at the 95% confidence level when looking at all voters in the City, including voters likely to vote in the November 2020 election cycle. Merging the Internet and telephone data files, as well as processing and weighting the data to adjust for population distribution and strategic oversampling, as needed to reflect the voter population in the City. Developing a topline report of aggregate findings and meeting with the City of Arroyo Grande to review the topline/aggregate survey results. This will help our more detailed analysis and reporting to be of maximum value in future public policy decisions such as whether to move forward with a sales tax measure, the amount of the measure, the duration of the measure, and the timing of the measure. Analyzing the survey results and preparing a report of findings conclusions, and recommendations for the City in draft and final formats, which directly addresses the research objectives outlined for the survey process. Our reports typically include sections for key findings and conclusions, methodology discussion, analysis of the questions and topics in narrative and graphical format, as well as a copy of the survey questionnaire and a complete set of crosstabulations for all survey questions. In addition, the City will receive several value-added modules, each unique to Godbe Research, including: a feasibility analysis on whether the City is advised to move forward with a measure at all or if more work (education and outreach) is needed before considering a sales tax measure; a ballot question wording recommendation based on the benefit rankings from the survey; an election timing module looking at the November 2020 election cycle of interest to the City; a tax threshold module looking at the tax rates tested in the survey and how they are impacted by the potential duration of the measure, and; a profile of support and potential opposition. Developing a presentation of findings and presenting the results and recommendations from the survey to the City of Arroyo Grande. Post-survey consulting on the results and recommendations from the survey process throughout the range of planning, outreach, ballot measure preparation and other potential activities based on the survey results, as need by Arroyo Grande (as needed/no charge). Item 11.a. - Page 21 City of Arroyo Grande Proposal to Conduct a Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey Godbe Research Page 10 PROJECT SCHEDULE DISCUSSION Project Meetings and Time Commitment Based on our typical project approach, Godbe Research expects numerous in-person and conference call meetings with the City of Arroyo Grande during the revenue measure feasibility survey process. This will likely include an in-person meeting to kick-off the polling project, an in-person meeting(s) or conference call meeting(s) to review and refine the draft questionnaire, a conference call or in-person meeting to review the findings in the topline report, a conference call to discuss the draft report, and a presentation of findings to the City. Preliminary Project Timeline Because of our experience in conducting resident and voter surveys for a wide variety of clients, Godbe Research generally prefers to conduct a hybrid Internet/telephone survey process over about an eight-week time frame. However, preliminary results, such as the topline report, can be made available much sooner, if required. Below, we have provided a preliminary timeline in terms of number of days to conduct the major tasks in the survey process. A formal timeline will be provided to the City once we’ve had the project kick off meeting, and can discuss internal deadlines, meeting dates, and project team schedules. Finally, please note that Arroyo Grande meetings (e.g. project kick off meeting) and tasks (e.g. questionnaire review) have been italicized for easy review below. Godbe Research Tasks Approx. Time Project Kick-Off Meeting w/ the City 1 Day (1 to 2 hours) Review of Previous Surveys and Data 3 to 5 Days Questionnaire Drafting and Refinement 12 to 15 Days Sample Development and Matching 3 to 5 Days (concurrent with questionnaire drafting) Meeting w/ Arroyo Grande to Review Draft Survey 1 Day (1 to 2 hours) Questionnaire Revisions (if needed) 3 to 5 Days Survey Pretest 1 Day Programming and Testing of Internet Version 3 to 5 Days CATI Programming of Telephone Version 2 to 3 Days (concurrent with Internet programming/testing) Data Collection / Interviewing 6 to 9 Days Initial Data Processing 3 to 5 Days Topline Report Meeting/Discussion w/ City 1 Day (1 to 2 hours) Analysis and Reporting 12 to 15 Days Report/Recommendations Review 1 Day (1 to 2 hours) Item 11.a. - Page 22 City of Arroyo Grande Proposal to Conduct a Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey Godbe Research Page 11 Report Changes (if needed) 3 to 5 Days Presentation of Survey Findings to the Any Time After Final City of Arroyo Grande Report Submittal Post Survey Consulting on Results Ongoing – As Needed and Recommendations Item 11.a. - Page 23 City of Arroyo Grande Proposal to Conduct a Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey Godbe Research Page 12 CLIENT REFERENCES Below are several client references for the City of Arroyo Grande to contact demonstrating the experience of Godbe Research with similar types of public opinion research projects, including sales tax and other revenue measure feasibility studies. Feel free to contact any of our references at your convenience or let us know if you would like us to assist in making contact. City of Santa Maria Projects: 2018 Sales Tax Measure Feasibility Survey 2012 Sales Tax Measure Feasibility Survey Contact: Mark van de Kamp, Public Communications Officer Phone/Email: 805-925-0951 x 2372 / mvandekamp@cityofsantamaria.org Notes: Godbe Research was the pollster for the City’s successful sales tax measures in 2012 and 2018. City of San Rafael Projects: 2019/17/15/13/11/09/07/05 Resident Satisfaction & Priorities Surveys 2013 Sales Tax Measure Feasibility Survey 2010 Parcel Tax Measure Feasibility Survey 2006 Parcel Tax Measure Feasibility Study 2005 Sales Tax Measure Feasibility Study Contact: Jim Schutz, City Manager Phone/Email: 415-485-3070 / Jim.Schutz@cityofsanrafael.org Notes: Godbe Research was the pollster for the City’s successful sales tax measures in 2013 and 2005 as well as the City’s 2010 and 2006 special parcel taxes dedicated to fire and paramedic and emergency services. Oceano Community Services District Project: 2019 Survey of District Voters Contact: Paavo Ogren, General Manager Phone/Email: 805-481-6730 / paavo@oceanocsd.org Notes: Godbe Research is just starting on a voter survey project with the Oceano Community Services District to determine the feasibility of a future revenue measure to help fund the District’s commitment to the Five Cities Fire Authority. City of Salinas Projects: Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey 2014 Sales Tax Measure Feasibility Survey 2012 Contact: Matt Pressey, CPA, Director of Finance Phone/Email: 831-758-7420 / mattp@ci.salinas.ca.us Notes: Godbe Research was the pollster for the City of Salinas’ successful sales tax (Measure G) and UUT (Measure H) both on the November 2014 ballot. We were also the pollster for their successful November 2012 sales tax measure (Measure E). City of Watsonville Projects: Sales Tax Measure Feasibility Survey 2019 Sales Tax Measure Feasibility Survey 2014 Contact: Tamara Vides, Deputy City Manager Phone/Email: 831-768-3034 / tamara.vides@cityofwatsonville.org Notes: Godbe Research is currently working with the City of Watsonville on voter polling to evaluate the feasibility of extending the duration Item 11.a. - Page 24 City of Arroyo Grande Proposal to Conduct a Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey Godbe Research Page 13 on the City’s current sales tax measure for the March and November 2020 election cycles (special tax). We were also the pollster for the original sales tax measure, which passed in the November 2012 election cycle. City of Grover Beach Project: Resident Satisfaction and Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey 2019 Contact: Matt Bronson, City Manager Phone/Email: 831-473-4567 / mbronson@grover.org Notes: Godbe Research conducted a resident satisfaction survey for the City of Grover Beach in 2018, where we also tested a business tax based on square footage and an increase to the City’s transient occupancy tax/TOT. Both measures passed in November 2018. Item 11.a. - Page 25 City of Arroyo Grande Proposal to Conduct a Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey Godbe Research Page 14 PROJECT COST OPTIONS Godbe Research takes great pride in delivering reliable and practical survey projects ‘on time and on budget’. In doing so, we prefer to provide a firm, fixed fee format for our cost proposals. This is because we do not believe in assigning arbitrary hours and rarely do projects (even highly similar in nature) take the same amount of time or resources, and we prefer to price our surveys based on the two most important parameters in any survey process: sample size (number of interviews) and survey length (average length of each interview). Based on our understanding of the needs of the City of Arroyo Grande for this specific revenue measure feasibility survey process, Godbe Research has provided costs to conduct a 15 to 20-minute survey comprised of up to 400 (n=400) total voters in the City likely to vote in November 2020 and potentially any other election cycle of interest to the City. The survey will be conducted via a hybrid Internet and telephone survey process with email and text to Internet recruitment as well as calls to landline telephone numbers and cell phone numbers for respondents that did not participate in the Internet survey version. The prices below reflect the all-inclusive costs to complete this specific survey project -- the overall cost will not exceed those shown below, provided that the parameters (survey length, sample size, no more than three in-person meetings, etc.) of the project conform to those outlined in this proposal. Should project parameters or Arroyo Grande need change, we will be happy to provide amended costs prior to proceeding. Project Task 15-min.18-min.20-min. Listed Voter Telephone Sample $800.00 $800.00 $800.00 Email Sample Purchase $600.00 $600.00 $600.00 Additional Cell and Email Matching $500.00 $500.00 $500.00 Internet Version Programming/Testing $4,250.00 $4,500.00 $4,750.00 CATI Programming of Telephone Version $1,125.00 $1,350.00 $1,500.00 Internet Version Recruitment/Hosting $500.00 $500.00 $500.00 Telephone Interviewing $6,200.00 $7,400.00 $8,600.00 Data Processing $900.00 $900.00 $900.00 Research Fee $7,250.00 $7,250.00 $7,250.00 Project Management $2,250.00 $2,250.00 $2,250.00 Misc./Travel Expenses $500.00 $500.00 $500.00 Voter Survey Total $24,875.00 $26,550.00 $28,150.00 Hybrid Survey of up to 400 (n=400) City of Arroyo Grande Voters Item 11.a. - Page 26 GODBE RESEARCH www.godberesearch.com California/Corporate Office 1575 Old Bayshore Highway Suite 102 Burlingame, CA 94010 Southwest/Reno Office 59 Damonte Ranch Parkway Suite B-309 Reno, NV 89521 Seattle/Northwest Office 601 108th Avenue NE Suite 1900 Bellevue, WA 98004 Item 11.a. - Page 27 GODBE RESEARCH Gain Insight ATTACHMENT 3 Item 11.a. - Page 28 VOTER OPINION SURVEY PROPOSAL FOR RESEARCH & CONSULTING PREPARED FOR THE CITY OF ARROYO GRANDE 1 592 N COAST HIGHWAY 101 ENCINITAS CA 92024 760.632.9900 WWW.TN·RESEARCH.COM JUNE 28, 2019 THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Item 11.a. - Page 29 Table of ContentsiCity of Arroyo Grande True North Research, Inc. © 2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T ABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i Cover Letter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 What Sets True North Apart?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Highest Success Rate in California for Revenue Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 How We Manage Your Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Value-Added Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Qualifications & Experience. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 True North Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Personal vs. Firm-Level Experience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Revenue Measure Experience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 City Survey Experience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 City of Murrieta . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 City of Chula Vista . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 City of La Palma . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 City of Oceanside . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 City of Barstow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 City of Del Mar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 City of Manhattan Beach. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 City of Madera . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Project Management & Resumes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Resumes and Roles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Scope of Work. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Communication . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Sampling Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Sample Size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Questionnaire. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Pre-Test & Programming. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Mixed-Mode Recruiting and Data Collection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Why not use text messages to recruit participation in the survey?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Data Processing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Topline Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Survey Report. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Presentation and Consulting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Time Line. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Proposed Cost. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Item 11.a. - Page 30 Cover LetterTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 1City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C OVER LETTER True North Research (True North) is pleased to present this proposal to provide voter opinion research and revenue measure consulting services to the City of Arroyo Grande (City). Based on recent discussions with James Bergman (City Manager) as well as our experience conducting hun- dreds of similar studies for public agencies throughout California, True North understands that the City is interested in using the survey to produce an unbiased, statistically reliable evaluation of voters' interest in supporting a local tax measure to provide funding for city services and facil- ities, as well as identify how to structure a measure so that it is consistent with the electorate’s priorities and sensitivities. In short, the goal is to assess the feasibility of placing a local sales tax measure on an upcoming ballot and—if feasible—determine how best to package a measure for voter approval. Assuming the survey results are promising and the City chooses to move forward with a mea- sure, True North is also prepared to assist the City and the City’s communications consultant with preparing the revenue measure, as well as developing and implementing a successful public education campaign. CHALLENGES To successfully meet the challenges of the proposed project, the City will need a consultant that has a diverse set of skills and experience. First and foremost, the consul- tant should possess a highly sophisticated understanding of survey research methodology to ensure that the resulting data are valid and reliable measures of voters' opinions, and that the results are representative of the individuals who may ultimately decide the fate of the revenue measure. This expertise should extend to all aspects of conducting surveys including sampling design, questionnaire design, data collection, data processing, weighting, statistical analysis, and presentation. In addition to statistical know-how, this study further requires a consultant that has ample experience working with public agencies translating positive survey results into effective public information campaigns and successful revenue measures. And, of course, the consultant must have the availability and a commitment to work closely with the City throughout the pre-electoral cycle. WHAT SETS TRUE NORTH APART? The True North team has the expertise, experience, resources, and dedication needed to successfully overcome the challenges of the proposed study. Research is our passion—and it shows in the energy, expertise, and dedication we bring to all aspects of the research process and our client relationships. Although we provide more details in the body of this proposal, we thought it would be helpful to highlight at the outset what distinguishes True North from other research firms. Highest Success Rate in California for Revenue Measures Creating revenue measures that are ultimately approved by the necessary percentage of voters is difficult, especially in the State of California. Successful measures require insightful research and sound, strategic advice. One testimony to the accuracy of our research and the reliability of our strategic advice is that we have the highest verifiable success rate in the State of California for revenue measures over the past decade (97%), and a 100% success rate over the past three years (73 wins/73 measures on the ballot since 2015). To date, we have helped our clients raise over $32 billion in voter- approved revenue measures. Our experience includes all types of revenue measures including Item 11.a. - Page 31 Cover LetterTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 2City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . general and special sales taxes, parcel taxes, bonds, transient occupancy taxes, utility users taxes, benefit assessments, and property-related fees. How We Manage Your Study Most research firms (and all of the larger firms) rely heavily on delegation to manage their work flow. Although they may send the Principals to the interview, the unfortunate reality is that once they ‘win’ a project the actual research tasks—design, data processing, data analysis, report writing, presentation building—are promptly delegated to junior-level staff. At True North, we follow a very different model for managing your project. We believe the best approach to conducting your study is to have the person in our organization with the most expertise and experience roll-up his sleeves and actually do the work. At True North, who you see is who you get. True North’s President (Dr. McLarney) will personally perform more than 75% of the research tasks for the proposed survey. Value-Added Services We go the extra mile for our clients by providing value-added research, project management, and modeling services that other firms do not. In addition to the standard deliverables (survey report & crosstabulations), we provide additional services including advanced statistical modeling (regression analysis) and targeting analyses. These value-added services will ensure that the City receives the most accurate and insightful research, and are very helpful in developing effective strategies for building and sustaining community support for a tax measure. The True North team is excited to partner with the City of Arroyo Grande on this important proj- ect. We think that you will find our qualifications, our attention to client service, and our interest in this study to be exceptional. Should you have any questions about this proposal, please do not hesitate to contact me by email at mclarney@tn-research.com or by phone at 760.632.9900. I will serve as the City’s point of contact and Project Manager throughout the entire project. Sincerely, Timothy McLarney, Ph.D. President True North Research 1592 N. Coast Highway 101, Encinitas CA 92024 p: 760.632.9900 mclarney@tn-research.com Item 11.a. - Page 32 Qualifications & ExperienceTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 3City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q UALIFICATIONS & EXPERIENCE TRUE NORTH OVERVIEW True North is a full-service survey research firm that is dedi- cated to providing cities and other public agencies with a clear understanding of the opinions, perceptions, priorities and concerns of their residents and voters. Through designing and imple- menting scientific surveys, focus groups and one-on-one interviews, as well as expert interpreta- tion of the findings, True North helps its clients to move with confidence when making strategic decisions in a variety of areas—such as planning, policy evaluation, passing revenue measures, and developing effective public information campaigns. To date, the Principals at True North have designed and conducted over 1,000 research studies for public agencies, including more than 350 tax measure feasibility surveys to gauge voter support for capital and service initia- tives, identify the factors that shape voters' opinions regarding a proposal, develop effective public education and outreach strategies, and help agencies position a measure for voter approval. True North Research was co-founded in 2002 as a two-person survey consulting firm by Dr. McLarney and Mr. Sarles and is an S-Corporation in good standing with the State of California. Although we have had many opportunities to expand our business during the past 17 years, we have chosen to maintain True North as a two-person firm. Dr. McLarney and Mr. Sarles still man- age every aspect of every True North project. We are an extremely efficient, collaborative team of two—and we have chosen to keep it that way so that our clients continue to receive exceptionally high quality customer service and research insights. Dr. McLarney and Mr. Sarles are committed to working with the City of Arroyo Grande for the duration of this project—there will be no staff turnover or changes. True North provides all services related to a survey project (questionnaire design, sampling, data collection, data processing, weighting, descriptive analysis, advanced statistical analysis, report- ing, and presentation), and we work collaboratively with our clients and their consultant teams to translate the survey results into effective communications strategies and successful measures. PERSONAL VS. FIRM-LEVEL EXPERIENCE Before discussing our experience in more detail, we feel it is important to note the difference between personal experience and firm-level experience. It is very common for research firms to provide a long list of projects in their propos- als in an effort to demonstrate that they are both well-qualified and highly experienced in con- ducting surveys of this type. The reality, however, is that this firm-level experience is often a game of smoke-and-mirrors. What they don’t tell you is that their list of projects was managed by dozens of different project managers over many years, many of whom no longer work for the firm and only one of whom will be assigned to your project (along with junior-level staff). The bottom line is that it doesn’t matter how many projects or clients a firm has worked with over the years. Nor does the experience of the Principals or others at the firm matter if they aren’t going to be the ones rolling-up their sleeves to work on your study. What matters is the experience, education, and expertise of the specific individuals who will be working directly on your project and handling each of the key research tasks. Item 11.a. - Page 33 Qualifications & ExperienceTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 4City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . For this reason, we take a different approach. The experience discussed throughout this pro- posal—and the research projects referenced below—are the personal experience of the individu- als who will be working on all aspects of the survey for the City of Arroyo Grande: Dr. McLarney and Mr. Sarles at True North. We encourage the City to take this difference into account when reviewing proposals. REVENUE MEASURE EXPERIENCE Creating revenue measures that are ultimately approved by the necessary percentage of voters is difficult, especially in the State of California. Successful measures require insightful research and sound, strategic advice. One testimony to the accuracy of our research and the reliability of our strategic advice is that we have the highest verifiable success rate in the State of California for revenue measures over the past decade (97%), and a 100% success rate over the past three years (73 wins/73 measures on the ballot since 2015). To date, we have helped our clients raise over $32 billion in voter-approved revenue measures. Our experience includes all types of revenue measures including general and special sales taxes, parcel taxes, bonds, transient occupancy taxes, utility users taxes, benefit assess- ments, and property-related fees. Our success rate is a good indicator that we are skilled at identifying the conditions required for moving forward and providing our clients with customized strategies to achieve success. Equally important, it also indicates that we are exceptionally good at recognizing when the conditions aren’t right, and helping our clients regroup and adjust their proposals so they are consistent with the type of measure their community is interested in supporting prior to placing a measure on the ballot. CITY SURVEY EXPERIENCE True North is the State’s leader in designing community and voter opinion survey research studies for California cities. Below is a sampling of the California cities for which Dr. McLarney and Mr. Sarles have personally designed and conducted surveys. Agoura Hills El Cajon Lompoc San Anselmo Alhambra Encinitas Long Beach San Carlos Aliso Viejo Folsom Los Angeles San Clemente Anaheim Fontana Los Gatos San Diego Apple Valley Fremont Madera San Gabriel Atherton Gilroy Malibu San Jose Azusa Glendale Manhattan Beach San Luis Obispo Banning Glendora Menifee San Marcos Barstow Goleta Mission Viejo San Marino Beverly Hills Grand Terrace Moorpark Santa Barbara Brea Half Moon Bay Murrieta Santa Clarita Burbank Hesperia Norwalk Santa Monica Campbell Huntington Beach Oceanside South Lake Tahoe Cerritos Indian Wells Oxnard South Pasadena Chino Irvine Palmdale Temecula Chula Vista Kerman Petaluma Thousand Oaks Claremont La Canada-Flintridge Pico Rivera Truckee Clayton La Palma Placentia Upland Costa Mesa Laguna Beach Port Hueneme Ventura Cudahy Laguna Niguel Rancho Cucamonga Watsonville Cypress Lake Elsinore Rancho Palos Verdes West Hollywood Dana Point Lake Forest Rancho Santa Margarita Westlake Village Del Mar La Mesa Redlands Whittier Diamond Bar Lathrop Redondo Beach Yorba Linda East Palo Alto La Verne Riverside Yucca Valley Eastvale Lemon Grove Rocklin Item 11.a. - Page 34 ReferencesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 5City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . R EFERENCES We encourage the City to contact our references and ask about the quality of work performed by True North. City of Murrieta In one of the most conservative communities in southern California, True North provided research and strategic advice that led to the successful passage of a permanent one percent sales tax to fund public safety, public works, and other general city services in 2018. Contact: Kim Summers, City Manager. 1 Town Square, Murrieta CA 92562. 951.304.2489; KSummers@MurrietaCA.gov. City of Chula Vista True North assisted the City of Chula Vista with feasibility research and strategic advice that led to the successful passage of a local sales tax measure on the November 2016 ballot, a second local sales tax on the June 2018 ballot, and a third successful tax on the November 2018 ballot. Contact: Gary Halbert, City Manager. 276 Fourth Avenue, Chula Vista CA, 91910: 619.691.5002. City of La Palma True North provided research and strategic advice to the City of La Palma that led to the successful passage of a general tax measure on the November 2016 ballot. We also recently completed a resident satisfaction survey for the City (2019). Contact: Laurie Murray, City Manager. 7822 Walker St., La Palma CA 90623. 714.690.3338. City of Oceanside True North assisted the City of Oceanside with feasibility research and stra- tegic advice that led to the successful passage of a sales tax to fund general city services in 2018. Contact: Deanna Lorson, Assistant City Manager. 300 North Coast Highway, Oceanside CA 92054. 760.495.3055. City of Barstow After the City lost a measure in a prior election cycle to fund fire protection services, True North was selected by the City to provide feasibility research and strategic advice that led to the successful passage of a tax to fund public safety and other city services in 2018. Contact: Cindy Prothro, Assistant City Manager. 220 East Mountain View Street, Suite A, Barstow CA 92311. 760.255.5115. City of Del Mar True North assisted the City of Del Mar with feasibility research and strategic advice that led to the successful passage of a general sales tax measure on the November 2016 ballot. Contact: Scott Huth, City Manager. 1050 Camino del Mar, Del Mar CA, 92014; 858.755.9313. City of Manhattan Beach True North has designed and conducted eight surveys for the City of Manhattan Beach since 1999, including multiple resident satisfaction surveys, a survey to help guide the City’s Community Facilities Plan, and revenue measure feasibility surveys that led to the successful passage of a transient occupancy tax (TOT) in 2019, and benefit assessment dis- tricts to fund utility undergrounding. Contact: Bruce Moe, City Manager. 1400 Highland Ave, Manhattan Beach, CA 90266; 310.802.5053. City of Madera True North provided the City of Madera with research and strategic consulting that led to the successful passage of a general tax on the November 2016 ballot. Contact: David Tooley, City Administrator. 205 West Fourth Street, Madera CA 93637; 559.661.5400. Item 11.a. - Page 35 Project Management & ResumesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 6City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . P ROJECT MANAGEMENT & RESUMES Most research firms manage survey projects through division of labor and a lot of delegation. Although the Principals may appear for the interview and for client meetings, their involvement beyond that point is generally negligible. The Project Manager’s role is to be the point of contact and help design the study, but even they only handle about 20% of the workload. The unfortu- nate reality is that most of the important research tasks—data processing, data analysis, report writing, presentation building—are delegated to junior-level staff. The division of labor and delegation model is popular among research firms because it is scal- able and built for quantity. Any firm that has just a few Principals, yet boasts multiple offices and 300+ studies every year, is certainly relying heavily on junior staff to get the work done. How- ever, it isn’t a model that is consistent with high quality research, careful attention to a client’s needs, or insightful strategic advice. We do things differently at True North. In fact, one of the main reasons we founded True North 17 years ago was because we recognized that there is a much better model for managing a research project—have the person with the most experience and expertise in the firm roll up his/ her sleeves and actually do the work. At True North, who you see is who you get. Dr. McLarney will not only serve as the Project Manager and the day-to-day contact for the City, he will person- ally perform about 75% of the research tasks on the survey project including all design, analysis, report writing, and presentations. We have purposely kept True North as a single office, two-per- son consulting firm because of our commitment to this project management model and the many benefits it provides to our clients. FIGURE 1 PROJECT ORGANIZATION & TASKS BY TEAM MEMBER Figure 1 presents the organiza- tional chart for the proposed study, as well as the tasks to be performed by each member of our team. True North Research will serve as prime contractor at the direction of the City of Arroyo Grande. Dr. Timothy McLarney (President of True North) will be the Project Man- ager for the study and will per- form all key design, analysis, and reporting tasks. Richard Sar- les (Principal Researcher at True North) will assist with data pro- cessing and graphics production for the report. Programming Sample Design Data Analysis True North Research Dynata Data Processing Graphics Principal Researcher Richard Sarles, M.S. Dameon Travis, B.S. Director of Data Collection Data Collection City of Arroyo Grande Report Writing Presentations Strategic Consulting Timothy McLarney, Ph.D. President & Principal Project Manager Day-to-day Contact Questionnaire Item 11.a. - Page 36 <!> Project Management & ResumesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 7City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The telephone interviews will be conducted by the same high quality, professional data collec- tion firm that True North has teamed with to complete more than 800 voter and community sur- veys—Dynata. Dameon Travis (Director at Dynata) will manage the day-to-day interviewing schedule and quality control procedures in close consultation with Mr. Sarles and Dr. McLarney. RESUMES AND ROLES For the City’s reference, the following paragraphs provide addi- tional information about Dr. McLarney’s, Mr. Sarles’, and Mr. Travis’ respective roles on this proj- ect, as well as their education and research backgrounds. Project Manager Timothy McLarney, Ph.D., will serve as the Project Manager for the pro- posed survey and the City’s point of contact on all matters related to the study. Dr. McLarney will lead all design, analysis, reporting and presenta- tion tasks. Approximately 75% of the research tasks will be performed directly by Dr. McLarney. Dr. McLarney has more than 20 years of experience in survey methodol- ogy, statistics, and public opinion analysis. As President of True North, Dr. McLarney is responsible for the design, management and analysis of True North's qualitative and quantitative research projects, including those that address community needs assessments, revenue measure fea- sibility, public policy and strategic planning issues. Dr. McLarney's work to date has provided California cities, counties, school districts, colleges, universities, special jurisdictions, transportation planning agencies, councils of government, and not-for-profits with research to address their often complex marketing, planning and/or performance measure- ment needs. During his career, Dr. McLarney has occupied a lead role in over 1,000 research studies, more than 350 of which had research objec- tives similar to those of the City of Arroyo Grande. Dr. McLarney is a nationally recognized expert in survey research meth- odology, sampling theory, weighting and the use of statistical methods to generalize survey results. His research has been recognized at numer- ous national and state conferences, has been published in academic journals, and has earned him honors including the title of Visiting Scholar at the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley. He has also served as an independent expert witness in survey research meth- odology for California legal cases. Dr. McLarney earned a Ph.D. and M.A. in Government from Cornell Uni- versity with an emphasis in survey methodology, sampling theory and public opinion, as well as a Bachelor's degree in Politics from the Univer- sity of California, Santa Cruz. Principal Researcher Richard Sarles, M.S., will assist Dr. McLarney with managing data collec- tion, data processing, and graphics production for the report. Mr. Sarles will manage approximately 20% of the research tasks. As Principal Researcher and co-founder of True North Research, Mr. Sarles applies his Item 11.a. - Page 37 Project Management & ResumesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 8City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . expertise in statistics, sampling, weighting and analysis to a wide variety of research studies. A veteran of over 1,000 research studies, public and private clients throughout the country rely on Mr. Sarles' research to help them meet their performance and planning goals. Prior to co-founding True North Research, Mr. Sarles was employed as the Associate Research Director at a west coast research firm. One testi- mony to Mr. Sarles’ expertise is he authored a primer on survey research methodology and customer satisfaction studies for the California Library Association that was published to all institutional members in the state. Mr. Sarles received his M.S. in Experimental Psychology from Illinois State University with magna cum laude honors. He also received his B.S. in Psychology from Illinois State University, graduating with summa cum laude honors. Data Collection Manager Dameon Travis, B.S., is the Director and Project Manager of Dynata and will serve as the Data Collection Manager for this study. As he has for more than 400 of True North’s survey projects, Mr. Travis will manage the data collection process and interviewing team and will report directly to Dr. McLarney and Mr. Sarles. Mr. Travis has extensive experience in managing all aspects of telephone interviewing, including sampling designs, CATI stations and programming, interviewer training, daily reporting procedures, and quality control processes. In the past five years alone, Mr. Travis has managed more than 500 studies such as the one proposed here. With a B.S. in Communications and Economics and more than eight years experience at Dynata working closely with Dr. McLarney and Mr. Sarles on similar studies, Mr. Travis will be an invalu- able asset to the project. Item 11.a. - Page 38 Scope of WorkTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 9City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S COPE OF WORK True North has developed a sophisticated research methodology for identifying whether voters will support a revenue measure and, if so, how best to package the measure for success. The key elements of our work plan and methodology are described in the following sections. Although our research design is based on methods that are proven industry standards, our attention to detail and both the extent and manner in which we analyze the data are anything but standard. COMMUNICATION Before discussing the ‘nuts-and-bolts’ of the research design, we’d like to first briefly discuss True North’s approach to communicating effectively with the City on this study. At the outset of this study, True North recommends having a kick-off meeting with all individuals who will be actively involved in the study (or will be an important stakeholder) in attendance. The kick-off meeting is a great forum for talking about past research conducted and the City’s needs, expectations, and concerns for the upcoming survey and deliverables. The kick- off meeting will also provide an opportunity for Dr. McLarney to clarify any questions about the proposed methodology, ask questions of City staff, and identify changes to the methodology (as proposed) that may better serve the City’s interests. In short, the purpose of the kick-off meeting is to make sure that everyone is in agreement about the details of the study, identify areas that need further clarification, share materials, and establish a more detailed work plan for the proj- ect. After the kick-off meeting, Dr. McLarney will keep in regular contact with the Project Manager identified by the City through telephone, email, and in-person meetings. Dr. McLarney will serve as the point of the contact for the City on all matters related to this project and will provide fre- quent updates (typically at least once per week) on the status of the project. These updates are generally made either by telephone or email, depending on the City’s preference and the urgency of the topic. SAMPLING METHOD In revenue measure research, the first step is to identify the popula- tion of individuals who will vote on the measure, then survey a representative sub-sample of these individuals. The appropriate set of individuals to be included in the sample thus varies depending on a number of factors. The expected election date, for example, is one factor that has a large influence on voter turnout and the profile of participating voters. Although there are 12,450 registered voters who reside within the boundaries of the City of Arroyo Grande, approximately 10,540 are expected to participate in the high-turnout November 2020 election (see Table 1 on the next page). As turnout shrinks, the demographic profile of the City’s electorate changes, increasing the voting power of older voters (65+), long-time residents, and home owners. Item 11.a. - Page 39 Scope of WorkTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 10City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . TABLE 1 ARROYO GRANDE: ALL VOTERS & LIKELY NOVEMBER 2020 Given the City’s potential interest in a 2020 measure, we recommend selecting a sample of vot- ers who are likely to participate in the high turnout November 2020 election on the natural or in response to a campaign’s get-out-the-vote efforts. This strategy will also allow us to isolate the smaller number of likely March 2020 voters nested within the larger November 2020 universe and thereby estimate how support for a potential measure may vary between the March 2020 and November 2020 electorates.1 1. If the City is interested in a general tax, California law requires that the measure appear on the same ballot as Council elections (November 2020) unless the City declares a fiscal emergency, in which case a general tax can be placed on an alternative ballot (e.g., March 2020). If the City pursues a special tax, it can be placed on either the March 2020 or November 2020 election date. TOTAL 12,450 % 10,540 % Party DEM 4097 33% 3608 34% REP 4606 37% 4074 39% IND 3534 28% 2697 26% MPL (Minor Party Liberal)82 1% 58 1% MPC (Minor Party Conservative)131 1% 103 1% Gender FEMALE 6489 52% 5617 53% MALE 5614 45% 4712 45% GENDER UNK 347 3% 211 2% Age AGE 18-29 1620 13% 1007 10% AGE 30-39 1727 14% 1305 12% AGE 40-49 1714 14% 1436 14% AGE 50-64 3227 26% 2879 27% 65+ OR NO AGE 4162 33% 3913 37% Registration Date REG BEFORE 3/04 6713 54% 6343 60% REG 3/04 TO 6/10 1934 16% 1655 16% REG 6/10 TO 11/16 2248 18% 1869 18% NEW REG AFTER 11/16 1555 12% 673 6% Ethnicity (Surname) AFRICAN-AMERICAN 93 1% 79 1% ASIAN (COMPOSITE)355 3% 308 3% LATINO 1325 11% 974 9% NOT (AF-AM, ASIAN OR LATINO)10677 86% 9179 87% Household Party Type 1 Democrat HH 867 7% 746 7% 2+ PURE Democrat HH 1504 12% 1384 13% 1 Republican HH 893 7% 756 7% 2+ PURE Republican HH 1997 16% 1842 17% DEM/MPL/NP HH (Mixed Liberal)1930 16% 1594 15% REP/MPC/NP HH (Mixed Conservative) 1860 15% 1519 14% DEM & REP MIXED HH 1717 14% 1430 14% NP/OTHER HH 1682 14% 1269 12% Home Onwership Status HOMEOWNER 7653 61% 6948 66% RENTER 4,797 39% 3,592 34% Total Registered Likely Nov 2020 Item 11.a. - Page 40 Scope of WorkTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 11City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Once the appropriate universe of voters is selected, the universe will be stratified by demo- graphic characteristics that are known to influence voting behavior—such as partisan affiliation, household party composition, age, gender and geographic precincts. Voters will then be ran- domly selected into clusters within the appropriate strata. This sampling method ensures that the composition of the sample accurately reflects the composition of the electorate that is expected to participate in the election of interest. SAMPLE SIZE By using a stratified and clustered random sampling design, True North will ensure that the sample is representative of likely voters in the City. The results of the sample can then be used to estimate the opinions of all likely voters in the City who are expected to partici- pate in the election of interest. Because not all likely voters will participate in the survey, how- ever, the results will have what is known as a statistical margin of error due to sampling. The margin of error refers to the difference between what is found from the sample of likely voters and what would have been found had all likely voters in the universe been surveyed. Given the small size of the District’s electorate and realistic participation rates while adhering to proper random sampling methods, we propose a sample of 300 completed interviews. A sample of this size will produce results with a maximum statistical margin of error due to sampling of +/- 5.5% at the 95% level of confidence for voters overall. If we are able to deliver more than 300 interviews based on the community’s strong response to the survey, there will be no additional charges for the additional interviews. QUESTIONNAIRE Creating revenue measures that are ultimately approved by the necessary percentage of voters is difficult, especially in the State of California. Successful measures require careful packaging—and it is in this area that the research performed by True North will be quite valuable. True North has developed a proven framework for the design of revenue measure sur- vey instruments that captures the pieces of information needed for estimating the feasibility of a measure and, if feasible, determining how best to package the measure for success. The instru- ment will identify the issues that voters feel are most important, how providing additional fund- ing for city projects and services ranks next to other important issues, baseline (natural) support for a measure, the tax rate that voters will support, the specific projects and improvements that voters are most interested in funding with measure proceeds, the information items that shape voter support for a measure, as well as how voter support for a measure may change once voters are exposed to the type of discussion and debate they will undoubtedly encounter during the election cycle. Collectively, this information will allow the team to determine if the City should move forward with a tax measure and, if so, how best to structure the measure and the steps that should be taken to maximize the measure's chances of success including a voter outreach plan. True North will lead the questionnaire design and revision process in close consultation with City staff. Throughout the design process, we are careful to develop a questionnaire that covers the topics of interest and avoids the many possible sources of systematic measurement error, including position-order effects, wording effects, response-category effects, scaling effects and priming. Item 11.a. - Page 41 Scope of WorkTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 12City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PRE-TEST & PROGRAMMING Once a refined draft of the instrument meets the approval of the City, it will be pre-tested internally and with approximately 20 voter households to ensure its integrity prior to finalization. Once any final changes are made in consultation with the City, the final survey will be CATI and web programmed for efficient telephone and online data collec- tion. Based on our experience, a 17 minute survey instrument will capture the necessary infor- mation for this project. MIXED-MODE RECRUITING AND DATA COLLECTION Quality telephone interview- ing will be an important element of the proposed survey. Using a ‘bargain’ phone facility is rarely a bargain, as the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the results depends on the knowledge, experience and professionalism of the interviewers and supervisors. In the end, it is critical that the research team and the City can trust the data that were collected. For this reason, True North partners with Dynata—a firm that has worked with Dr. McLarney and Mr. Sarles on more than 800 survey projects in the past and has a proven track-record of professional interviewers, qual- ity data collection, and competitive pricing. Telephone interviewing for the survey will be con- ducted in the evenings (5:30PM to 9:00PM PST) during weekdays, and 10:00AM to 6:00PM on weekends. Although telephone interviewing has (and continues to be) the single most reliable method for conducting revenue measure surveys, it is also that case that a growing percentage of voters are unreachable by telephone due to factors such as call-screening, abandoned land lines, and/or not listing a valid phone number when registering to vote. Reaching these voters requires a dif- ferent strategy, which is why we recommend that in addition to recruiting participation in the survey and conducting interviews by telephone, we also utilize an additional recruiting method (email) and allow voters to participate in the survey online through a secure, password-protected survey site designed and hosted by True North. When used appropriately, a mixed-method approach will deliver higher participation rates, minimize response bias, and ultimately deliver more reliable results than using telephone-only based data collection methodologies. True North works closely with Dynata to manage quality control procedures during data collec- tion, which will include a training session with interviewers and supervisors to ensure that tele- phone interviewers understand the purpose of all of the questions in the survey, thoroughly testing the CATI and web programs prior to fielding, active and remote supervisor monitoring of interviews, quality control checks on a random selection of interviews to identify any discrepan- cies that may occur (and need adjusting), and daily monitoring of the sample characteristics to ensure that data collection is adhering to the sampling plan. Why not use text messages to recruit participation in the survey? Although appealing in concept, we strongly advise against soliciting participation in the survey using text messages due to legal considerations and the financial liability it can create for the City. The Federal Com- munications Commission (FCC) created the Telephone Consumer Protection Act (TCPA) to regu- late telemarketing calls and the use of automatic telephone dialing systems. Recent updates to the TCPA and court cases make it clear that the use of autodialed text messages requires prior express written consent from recipients, a higher standard than has been required in the past. The fines for violating TCPA regulations can be extremely expensive—up to $18,936 per viola- tion (i.e, per text). Item 11.a. - Page 42 Scope of WorkTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 13City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DATA PROCESSING Once the interviewing is complete, True North will process the data. This consists of checking the data for errors or inconsistencies, coding and recoding responses, and preparing frequency analyses and cross-tabulations. If strategic oversampling is used during the sampling stage, True North will adjust for the oversampling via a statistical procedure known as weighting to ensure representative results. TOPLINE SUMMARY Once the data processing is complete, the team will analyze the results and prepare an initial topline summary, which consists of the percentage responses for each question asked in the survey. Although the topline summary represents the 'first cut' at the data and presents the results only for respondents as a whole, the summary will often allow the team to answer the essential questions for the study, such as does the measure have a reason- able chance to succeed? SURVEY REPORT The survey report prepared by True North for the City will include a thor- ough question-by-question analysis of the survey findings (including overall results, and by voter subgroups), an executive summary of the key findings and conclusions, a detailed discussion of the methodology used to complete the study, a tabulation of all calls made during the study, a copy of the topline report, and a complete set of crosstabulations for reference that display the results broken down by various subgroups of voters. True North believes that the quality of the final report and presentation reflects directly upon the quality of the study as a whole as well as True North Research, so Dr. McLarney and Mr. Sarles take great care in developing a report which is thorough (200+ pages cover to cover)2, insightful, free of mistakes, and presents the informa- tion in an eye-catching, full-color display. True North's reports are the most thorough and insightful in the industry. Our reports are designed to meet the needs of the most sophisticated audiences and critics, while at the same time are accessible to individuals who may not have the interest or the familiarity with the survey to wade through the typical ‘academic style’ report. We also don’t just report the results—we put the findings into context and explain their meaning based upon related questions in the survey, as well as our experience working on hundreds of tax measures in the State. PRESENTATION AND CONSULTING True North will prepare and deliver a PowerPoint presentation of the study results, conclusions and recommendations to the City at a council meeting or other venue of the City’s choosing. We will also be happy to work closely with the City to determine how best to package the measure for success. TIME LINE True North will work with the City of Arroyo Grande to establish a project sched- ule that meets the City’s needs. On the next page is a proposed time line for the project, show- ing the number of days that we recommend devoting to each stage, as well as the key research tasks that are completed in each stage. We have the flexibility to adjust this time line if the City desires. 2. For those readers who don’t have the time or the interest to review the entire report, we present a concise executive summary of the key findings and conclusions. Item 11.a. - Page 43 Scope of WorkTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 14City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . FIGURE 2 PROJECT TIME LINE & TASKS 5days 10 days 14 days 10 days 5 days 10 days Ongoing Kickoff Meeting Background Research Share Plans & Documents Questionnaire Design, Review & Approve Pre-Test Sample Language Translation CATI Program/Test Web Program/Test Interviewer Training Invitations Email & Telephone Recruiting Online Surveys Telephone Interviews Monitoring Data Processing Coding Weighting Crosstabs Topline Summary Statistical Analysis Full Report Powerpoint Summary Staff Presentation Council Presentation Strategic Advice on measure Project Initiation Design Prepare to Field Data Collection Data Processing Analysis & Reporting Presentations Ongoing Strategic Consulting Item 11.a. - Page 44 o--o--0--0---o--o--o---o Proposed CostTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 15City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . P ROPOSED COST The following table presents True North’s fixed-fee cost estimate to design and conduct the sur- vey and scope of work described in this proposal. The costs shown are inclusive of all fees and expenses—there will be no additional charges—and are valid for 180 days from the date of the proposal. If selected as the City’s research consultant for this project, our payment terms are simple: we request full payment at the completion of the study. No interim or up-front payments are needed. TABLE 2 FIXED-FEE COST ESTIMATE FOR SURVEY Task Cost Core Services Random Sample & Matching $1,850 CATI & Web Programming $1,400 Data Collection $10,700 Data Processing/Weighting $2,400 Design, Analysis & Reporting $8,650 Value Added Services Targeting Tool Inc Statistical Modeling Inc Advise on measure package Inc TOTAL $25,000 Item 11.a. - Page 45 THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Item 11.a. - Page 46