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CC 2024-01-09_12.a. Results of Voter Opinion Polling Item 12.a. MEMORANDUM TO: City Council FROM: Bill Robeson, Assistant City Manager/Public Works Director BY: Jessica Matson, Legislative & Information Services Director/City Clerk SUBJECT: Consider Results of Voter Opinion Polling for a Potential Future Ballot Measure DATE: January 9, 2024 SUMMARY OF ACTION: The City Council will review the results of a statistically valid survey of Arroyo Grande voters conducted by True North Research. IMPACT ON FINANCIAL AND PERSONNEL RESOURCES: The cost of polling services was $27,850 and was allocated in the FY 2023-24 budget as part of a professional services agreement for voter opinion polling and public outreach services. RECOMMENDATION: 1) Review and file the results summary report; and 2) Direct staff on whether or not to continue work with the consultant on a potential future revenue measure. BACKGROUND: In August 2019, Council authorized the City Manager to enter into a Consultant Services Agreement with True North Research for voter opinion survey services for a potential Transaction & Use Tax (Sales Tax) measure on the November 2020 ballot. Polling was conducted in the Fall of 2019 and results were presented to Cou ncil in January 2020. In June 2020 Council discussed bringing forward a 1% Sales Tax measure on the November 2020 ballot and ultimately chose not to pursue the ballot initiative due the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Approximately two years later, having continued to identify significant funding needs, particularly for the City’s infrastructure, pavement maintenance, stormwater systems, and sidewalks, the City Council again discussed the potential for seeking additional Sales Tax revenue through a new ba llot measure. On May 24, 2022, Council approved placing a 1% local Sales Tax measure, Measu re D-22, on the November 8, 2022 ballot. Page 217 of 282 Item 12.a. City Council Consider Results of Voter Opinion Polling for a Potential Future Ballot Measure January 9, 2024 Page 2 On November 8, 2022, a General Municipal Election was held in the City which included Measure D-22, asking voters if the City shall be authorized to increase the Sales Tax by 1% to fund maintenance and repair of streets, sidewalks, stormwater and drainage facilities, and for other City programs and facilities. Measure D-22 did not pass, with 45.64% of the votes in favor of the measure. 50% of the votes, plus one vote is necessary to pass a General Tax Measure. On March 2, 2023, Council participated in a goal-setting study session and identified seven priorities: 1. Funding: New Revenue Sources, Economic Development; 2. Five Cities Fire Authority; 3. Address Current Infrastructure Needs; 4. General Plan; 5. Water Resilience; 6. Homeless/Housing; and 7. Staff Resources/Employee Attraction and Retention The top four priorities were identified as the City’s focus for the upcoming two-year budget process, including a potential revenue measure. On June 13, 2023, City Council authorized the publishing of a Request for Proposals (RFP) for Voter Opinion Polling and Public Education and Outreach Services and on August 22, 2023, City Council approved a professional services agreement with Clifford Moss and True North Research for these services. ANALYSIS OF ISSUES: Following direction from the Council in August 2023, staff worked with Clifford Moss and True North Research to develop and conduct the voter opinion poll, analyze the results, and provide a written and verbal report. Between December 6 and December 12, 2023, True North Research was able to complete surveys from a sample of 487 likely November 2024 voters. Dr. Timothy McLarney of True North Research prepared a summary report on the polling results, which is shown in Attachment 1 and will present the report to Council. Next Steps Should the Council direct staff to continue working with Clifford Moss on outreach and education services, a community survey and other robust outreach efforts will take place between now and May 2024. Updates will be provided to Council in preparation for further discussion and potential action to place a revenue measure on the November 2024 ballot. Page 218 of 282 Item 12.a. City Council Consider Results of Voter Opinion Polling for a Potential Future Ballot Measure January 9, 2024 Page 3 ALTERNATIVES: The following alternatives are provided for the Council’s consideration: 1. Review and file the polling results summary report and direct staff to continue working with the consultant on a potential future revenue measure; 2. Review and file the polling results summary report and direct staff to discontinue working with the consultant on a potential future revenue measure; or 3. Provide other direction to staff. ADVANTAGES: A review of the voter opinion polling results can assist the Council in identifying community perspectives on services and potential support for a future ballot measure. DISADVANTAGES: No disadvantages have been identified for receiving and filing the polling results summary report. ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW: No environmental review is required for this item. PUBLIC NOTIFICATION AND COMMENTS: The Agenda was posted at City Hall and on the City’s website in accordance with Government Code Section 54954.2. Attachments: 1. Voter Opinion Polling Summary Report Page 219 of 282 12/21/2023 R EVENUE M EASURE F EASIBILITY S TUDY C ONDUCTED FOR THE C ITY OF A RROYO G RANDE P RESENTED B Y T IMOTHY M C L ARNEY P H .D. ATTACHMENT 1 Page 220 of 282 22 o Determine if a local sales tax measure is feasible o Identify how to create a measure consistent with community priorities o Gather information needed for communications & outreach PURPOSE OF STUDY Page 221 of 282 33 o How did we select voters to survey? o Stratified & Clustered Random Sample of likely November 2024 voters using age, gender, partisanship, household party type, and sub-geographies o Ensures balanced, representative sample of likely voters o How did we recruit participation? o Personalized email, text, and telephone calls o PINs to restrict access and ensure one complete per respondent o How were voters able to share their opinions? o Secure, PIN-protected website that scales to the device o Telephone (land line or mobile) o What was the sample size? o 487 completed interviews o Overall margin of error of ±4.4% @ 95% level of confidence METHODOLOGY OF STUDY Page 222 of 282 44 QUALITY OF LIFE Not sure 0.4 Very poor 0.9Poor 1.1 Fair 8.4 Good 49.3 Excellent 39.9 Page 223 of 282 55 CHANGES TO IMPROVE CITY 16.2 14.2 9.3 8.0 5.7 5.1 4.8 4.7 3.5 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 2.4 3.4 1.6 0 5 10 15 20 Improve infrastructure, roads Not sure / Cannot think of anything specific No changes needed / Everything is fine Address homeless issues Reduce traffic congestion Provide more sidewalks Provide more affordable housing Provide more bike, walking trails Clean up, beautify City Reduce cost of living Provide rec activities, events Improve, redo Brisco interchange Limit growth, development Support small, local businesses Address parking issues Improve parks, rec facilities Improve City Council, Gov process Reduce taxes, fees Provide more police presence Increase public safety Address water issues Improve economy, jobs Improve schools, education Improve City-resident communication Improve shopping, dining opportunities Improve downtown Improve spending, budgeting % RespondentsPage 224 of 282 66 OVERALL SATISFACTION Very satisfied 31.4 Somewhat satisfied 49.2 Somewhat dissatisfied 10.7 Very dissatisfied 3.7 Not sure 4.7 Prefer not to answer 0.3 Page 225 of 282 77 INITIAL BALLOT TEST To provide funding for city services in Arroyo Grande, such as: o Keeping streets, sidewalks, infrastructure, parks, and community facilities safe, clean, and well-maintained o Fixing potholes o Providing fire protection, paramedic, police, and 9-1 -1 emergency services o And addressing homelessness Shall City of Arroyo Grande’s ordinance establishing a one-cent sales tax be adopted, providing 6 million dollars annually for general government use for 10 years that can’t be taken away by the State, with citizen oversight, independent audits, and all money locally controlled? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? Page 226 of 282 88 INITIAL BALLOT TEST Definitely yes 34.9 Probably yes 30.5 Probably no 12.8 Definitely no 15.9 Not sure 5.7 Prefer not to answer 0.1 65% 29% Page 227 of 282 99 PROJECTS & SERVICES 63.9 62.5 63.3 58.3 57.1 59.2 48.2 48.3 49.4 33.8 23.3 24.5 23.2 28.0 27.6 23.2 32.4 27.9 24.7 37.2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Repair infrastructure including sidewalks, curbs, and storm drains Fix potholes Pave and maintain local streets Keep parks, recreation facilities, community centers, public facilities safe, clean, well-maintained Provide fire protection and paramedic services Provide quick responses to 911 emergencies Clean up piles of trash, litter that people dump along streets, sidewalks, in public areas Provide police services, including crime prevention and investigation Address homelessness Remove graffiti % Respondents Strongly favor Somewhat favor Page 228 of 282 1010 POSITIVE ARGUMENTS 47.9 48.7 44.9 39.2 41.8 38.6 42.0 38.4 32.1 28.6 23.5 26.3 31.7 28.9 30.7 25.3 28.0 33.1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 City maintains 73 mi of streets; measure will allow City to fix potholes, repairs, maintenance to streets, sidewalks, storm drains, pipes, facilities; if we don’t take care of it now, more expensive to repair in future All money raised by measure will be used to fund essential services, facilities here in Arroyo Grande; by law, it can’t be taken away by State Most of sales tax generated locally goes to State; measure ensures higher percentage of sales tax stays here in, we have control over how those funds are spent By keeping city safe, clean, well-maintained, this measure will help protect quality of life, keep Arroyo Grande a special place to live Fast emergency response for 911 critical for saving lives; measure will ensure enough police, firefighters, dispatchers, paramedics to respond quickly to 911 emergencies High quality parks, open spaces, sports fields, recreation programs help keep kids healthy, active, away from drugs, gangs, crime Substantial amount of money raised by sales tax will come from people who visit community, but don’t live here; measure will make sure they pay fair share for facilities, services they use Measure includes a clear system of accountability incl citizen oversight, independent audits, public disclosure of how all funds are spent Measure costs just one dollar for every $100 purchased, groceries, medicine, many other essential items are excluded from the tax % Respondents Very convincing Somewhat convincing Page 229 of 282 1111 INTERIM BALLOT TEST Definitely yes 39.5 Probably yes 28.0 Probably no 10.6 Definitely no 15.5 Not sure 5.7 Prefer not to answer 0.6 68% 26% Page 230 of 282 1212 NEGATIVE ARGUMENTS 35.1 34.9 33.1 33.8 28.9 16.7 29.7 28.5 29.8 26.2 27.8 23.4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Local businesses, residents hit hard by pandemic, now facing high gas prices, runaway inflation; many struggling to stay afloat; now is not the time to raise taxes Everyone coming after us for tax increases, state, county taxes, school bonds, other taxes on ballot next yr; enough is enough; we can’t afford to keep raising taxes Arroyo Grande is an expensive place to live, especially for young families, seniors, those on fixed incomes; passing this tax will make it even less affordable Residents are already paying too many taxes, incl state, county taxes, school bonds, other taxes; enough is enough; we can’t afford to keep raising taxes There are no guarantees on how funds will be spent, City can divert the money to pet projects without any say from voters; we can’t trust City with tax dollars Raising the sales tax will hurt local economy and the businesses in our community % Respondents Very convincing Somewhat convincing Page 231 of 282 1313 FINAL BALLOT TEST Prefer not to answer 1.3 Not sure 8.6 Definitely no 18.3 Probably no 12.1 Probably yes 24.4 Definitely yes 35.2 60% 30% Page 232 of 282 1414 Prefer not to answer 1.3Not sure 6.4 Definitely no 14.4 Probably no 10.1 Probably yes 7.5 Definitely yes 0.8 Def, prob yes @ 1 cent (Q11) 59.6 FINAL BALLOT TEST AT ½ CENT RATE Page 233 of 282 1515 KEY CONCLUSIONS o Does a local sales tax measure appear to be feasible for November 2024? Yes . Positive Signs o Voters value the quality of life in Arroyo Grande and the services they receive from the City, but also see room for improvement o Strong natural support for measure to fund city services (65%) o Popular projects and services o Positive arguments resonate o All ballot tests are well above the simple majority (50%+1) required for passage of general tax, even after opposition arguments Challenges o Receptiveness to potential opposition arguments (-8%) o Electoral climate: Hyper-partisanship & statewide initiatives Unknowns o Trajectory of economy, inflation, other measures Page 234 of 282 1616 o Snapshot in time, not a crystal ball o Service Priorities:Street and infrastructure repair/maintenance, maintenance/protection of parks, recreation, and community facilities, fire/EMS, police, 911 response, addressing homelessness. o City Communications: Begin a conversation with the community to build awareness of ongoing needs and consensus on a proposal. o Independent Campaign:Need to have solid independent campaign to navigate through the election cycle, communicate key messages, turn out supporters, and weather uncertainties. OBSERVATIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS Page 235 of 282 ATTACHMENT 1 Page 236 of 282 THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Page 237 of 282 Table of ContentsiCity of Arroyo Grande True North Research, Inc. © 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T ABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i List of Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii List of Figures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .iii Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Motivation for Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Overview of Methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Organization of Report. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Disclaimer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 About True North. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Key Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Quality of Life & City Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Quality of Life. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Question 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Changes to Improve Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Question 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Overall Performance Rating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Question 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Initial Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Question 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Support by Subgroups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Reasons for Not Supporting Measure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Question 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Projects & Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Question 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Service Ratings by Initial Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Positive Arguments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Question 8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Positive Arguments by Initial Support. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Interim Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Question 9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Support by Subgroups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Negative Arguments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Question 10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Negative Arguments by Initial Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Final Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Question 11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Change in Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Final Ballot Test at Lower Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Question 12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Fiscal Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Question 12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Background & Demographics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Questionnaire Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Programming & Pre-Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Sample. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Statistical Margin of Error. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Recruiting & Data Collection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Data Processing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Rounding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Questionnaire & Toplines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Page 238 of 282 List of TablesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 iiCity of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . L IST OF TABLES Table 1 Demographic Breakdown of Support at Initial Ballot Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Table 2 Top Projects & Services by Position at Initial Ballot Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Table 3 Top Positive Arguments by Position at Initial Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Table 4 Demographic Breakdown of Support at Interim Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Table 5 Top Negative Arguments by Position at Initial Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Table 6 Demographic Breakdown of Support at Final Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Table 7 Movement Between Initial & Final Ballot Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Table 8 Demographics of Sample . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Page 239 of 282 List of FiguresTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 iiiCity of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . L IST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Quality of Life. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Figure 2 Quality of Life by Age & Gender . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Figure 3 Quality of Life by Years in Arroyo Grande, Child in Hsld & Homeowner on Voter File . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Figure 4 Changes to Improve City. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Figure 5 Overall Satisfaction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Figure 6 Overall Satisfaction by Age & Gender . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Figure 7 Overall Satisfaction by Years in Arroyo Grande, Child in Hsld & Homeowner on Voter File . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Figure 8 Initial Ballot Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Figure 9 Reasons for Not Supporting Measure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Figure 10 Projects & Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Figure 11 Positive Arguments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Figure 12 Interim Ballot Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Figure 13 Negative Arguments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Figure 14 Final Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2 Figure 15 Final Ballot Test @ One-Half Cent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Figure 16 Opinion of Fiscal Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Figure 17 Opinion of Fiscal Management by Years in Arroyo Grande & Age. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Figure 18 Opinion of Fiscal Management by Child in Hsld, Homeowner on Voter File, Position at Initial Ballot Test & Gender. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Figure 19 Maximum Margin of Error due to Sampling. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Page 240 of 282 IntroductionTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 1City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I NTRODUCTION One of five cities that comprise California’s Central Coast, the City of Arroyo Grande is a small town in San Luis Obispo County known for its village, agriculture, rural character, and temperate climate. Incorporated in 1911 and currently home to an estimated 17,922 residents1, the City’s team of full-time and part-time employees provides a full suite of municipal services including police, fire, public works, and recreation services. Over the past decade, the City of Arroyo Grande’s revenues have not kept pace with the growing costs associated with providing municipal services and facilities. Although the City has been pro- active in responding to this challenge by reducing its costs where feasible and through effective financial management practices, the practical reality is that existing revenues simply do not sup- port the high quality services that residents have come to expect. To provide additional funding for essential city services including keeping streets, sidewalks, infrastructure, parks, and com- munity facilities safe, clean, and well-maintained, fixing potholes, providing fire protection, para- medic, police, and 911 emergency services, and addressing homelessness, the City of Arroyo Grande is considering establishing a local sales tax measure. MOTIVATION FOR RESEARCH The primary purpose of this study was to produce an unbiased, statistically reliable evaluation of voters' interest in supporting a general sales tax measure to provide the funding noted above. Additionally, should the City decide to move for- ward with a revenue measure, the survey can guide how best to structure the measure so it is consistent with the community's priorities and expressed needs. Specifically, the study was designed to: • Gauge current, baseline support for enacting a local sales tax to provide funding for general municipal services; • Identify the types of services voters are most interested in funding, should the measure pass; • Expose voters to arguments in favor of, and against, the proposed tax measure to assess how information affects support for the measure; and • Estimate support for the measure once voters are presented with the types of information they will likely be exposed to during an election cycle. It is important to note at the outset that voters’ opinions about tax measures are often some- what fluid, especially when the amount of information they initially have about a measure is lim- ited. How voters think and feel about a measure today may not be the same way they think and feel once they have had a chance to hear more information about the measure during the elec- tion cycle. Accordingly, to accurately assess the feasibility of establishing a local sales tax to fund municipal services, it was important that in addition to measuring current opinions about the measure (Question 5), the survey expose respondents to the types of information voters are likely to encounter during an election cycle, including arguments in favor of (Question 8) and opposed to (Question 10) the measure, and gauge how this type of information ultimately impacts their voting decision (Questions 9 & 11). 1. Source: California Department of Finance estimate for January 2023. Page 241 of 282 IntroductionTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 2City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY For a full discussion of the research methods and tech- niques used in this study, turn to Methodology on page 29. In brief, the survey was administered to a random sample of 487 voters in the City of Arroyo Grande who are likely to participate in the November 2024 election. The survey followed a mixed-method design that employed multiple recruiting methods (email, text, and telephone) and multiple data collection methods (telephone and online). Administered between December 6 and December 12, 2023, the average interview lasted 16 minutes. ORGANIZATION OF REPORT This report is designed to meet the needs of readers who prefer a summary of the findings as well as those who are interested in the details of the results. For those who seek an overview of the findings, the section titled Key Findings is for you. It pro- vides a summary of the most important factual findings of the survey in a Question & Answer for- mat. For the interested reader, this section is followed by a more detailed question-by-question discussion of the results from the survey by topic area (see Table of Contents), as well as a description of the methodology employed for collecting and analyzing the data. And, for the truly ambitious reader, the questionnaire used for the interviews is contained at the back of this report (see Questionnaire & Toplines on page 32), and a complete set of crosstabulations for the survey results is contained in Appendix A. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS True North thanks the City of Arroyo Grande for the opportunity to assist the City in this important effort. The collective expertise, local knowledge, and insight pro- vided by city staff and representatives improved the overall quality of the research presented here. A special thanks also to Bonnie Moss and Laura Crotty (CliffordMoss) for contributing to the design of the study. DISCLAIMER The statements and conclusions in this report are those of the authors (Dr. Timothy McLarney and Richard Sarles) at True North Research, Inc. and not necessarily those of the City of Arroyo Grande. Any errors and omissions are the responsibility of the authors. ABOUT TRUE NORTH True North is a full-service survey research firm that is dedicated to providing public agencies with a clear understanding of the values, perceptions, priorities, and concerns of their residents and voters. Through designing and implementing scientific surveys, focus groups, and one-on-one interviews as well as expert interpretation of the findings, True North helps its clients to move with confidence when making strategic decisions in a variety of areas—such as planning, policy evaluation, performance management, establishing fiscal priori- ties, passing revenue measures, and developing effective public information campaigns. During their careers, Dr. McLarney and Mr. Sarles have designed and conducted over 1,200 sur- vey research studies for public agencies, including more than 400 revenue measure feasibility studies. Of the measures that have gone to ballot based on Dr. McLarney’s recommendation, 95% have been successful. In total, the research that Dr. McLarney has conducted has led to over $35 billion in voter-approved local revenue measures. Page 242 of 282 Key FindingsTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 3City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K EY FINDINGS As noted in the Introduction, this study was designed to provide the City of Arroyo Grande with a statistically reliable understanding of voters’ interest in establishing a one-cent sales tax to fund city services. Whereas subsequent sections of this report are devoted to conveying the detailed results of the survey, in this section we attempt to ‘see the forest through the trees’ and note how the collective results of the survey answer some of the key questions that motivated the research. The following conclusions are based on True North’s and CliffordMoss’ interpretations of the survey results and the firms’ collective experience conducting revenue measure studies for public agencies throughout the State. Is it feasible to place a local sales tax measure on the November 2024 ballot? Yes. Arroyo Grande voters have a high opinion of the quality of life in the City, and they value the services they receive from the City of Arroyo Grande. Together, these sentiments translate into strong natural sup- port (65%) for establishing a one-cent sales tax to provide funding for city services in Arroyo Grande, such as keeping streets, sidewalks, infra- structure, parks, and community facilities safe, clean, and well-main- tained, fixing potholes, providing fire protection, paramedic, police, and 911 emergency services, and addressing homelessness. The results of this survey indicate that a local sales tax measure is feasi- ble for the November 2024 ballot provided that it is kept affordable, focuses on projects and improvements that voters identify as their prior- ities, and is accompanied by robust community/opinion leader engage- ment, education, and communication (more on this below). Having stated that a local sales tax measure appears feasible, it is impor- tant to note that the measure’s prospects will be shaped by external fac- tors (not within the City’s or an independent campaign’s control) and that a recommendation to place the measure on the November 2024 bal- lot comes with several qualifications and conditions. Indeed, although the results are promising, all revenue measures must overcome chal- lenges prior to being successful. The proposed measure is no exception. The following paragraphs discuss some of the challenges and the next steps that True North and CliffordMoss recommend. Which services do Arroyo Grande voters view as priorities for funding? A general tax is “any tax imposed for general governmental purposes”2 and is distinguished from a special tax in that the funds raised by a gen- eral tax are not earmarked for a specific purpose(s). Thus, a general tax provides a municipality with a great deal of flexibility with respect to what is funded by the measure on a year-to-year basis. Although the Arroyo Grande City Council would have the discretion to decide how to spend the revenues, the survey results indicate that voters were primarily interested in using the funds for public works and public 2. Section 1, Article XIIIC, California Constitution. Page 243 of 282 Key FindingsTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 4City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . safety. Specifically, voters expressed the greatest interest in using mea- sure proceeds to repair infrastructure including sidewalks, curbs, and storm drains (87% strongly or somewhat favor), fix potholes (87%), pave and maintain local streets (87%), keep parks, recreation facilities, com- munity centers, and public facilities safe, clean, and well-maintained (86%), provide fire protection and paramedic services (85%), and provide quick responses to 911 emergencies (82%). How might a public information campaign affect support for the proposed measure? As noted in the body of this report, individuals’ opinions about revenue measures are often not rigid, especially when the amount of information presented to the public on a measure has been limited. Thus, in addition to measuring current support for the measure, one of the goals of this study was to explore how the introduction of additional information about the measure may affect voters’ opinions about the proposal. It is clear from the survey results that some voters’ opinions about the proposed measure are somewhat sensitive to the nature—and amount— of information that they have about the measure. Information about the specific services that could be funded by the sales tax, as well as argu- ments in favor of the measure, were found by many voters to be compel- ling reasons to support the measure. However, voters also exhibited sensitivity to opposition arguments, and there is a risk that voters could be swayed by divisive and hyper-partisan campaigning during the 2024 election cycle. Accordingly, one of the keys to building and sustaining support for a local sales tax measure will be the presence of an effective, well-organized public outreach effort, as well as an independent cam- paign that focuses on the need for the measure as well as the many ben- efits that it will bring. How might changes to the economic or politi- cal climate alter support for the measure? A survey is a snapshot in time—which means the results of this study and the conclusions noted above must be viewed in light of the current economic and political climates. On the one hand, this should provide some reassurances to the City that a local sales tax measure is feasible. Even with lingering concerns regarding the pandemic, inflation, high gas prices, and the trajectory of the economy, voters strongly supported establishing a local sales tax to fund streets, infrastructure, parks, public safety, and other general services. On the other hand, the months leading up to a 2024 election are likely to be punctuated with significant events on the economic and political fronts. Exactly how these events unfold and may shape voters’ opinions remains to be seen. Should the economy and/or political climate improve, support for the measure could increase. Conversely, negative economic and/or political developments (including devolving into a hyper-partisan environment), competing measures, and/or skewed voter turnout could dampen support for the measure below what was recorded in this study. Page 244 of 282 Quality of Life & City ServicesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 5City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q UALITY OF LIFE & CITY SERVICES The opening section of the survey was designed to gauge voters’ opinions regarding the quality of life in Arroyo Grande, their ideas for how it can be improved, as well as their assessment of the City’s performance in providing municipal services. QUALITY OF LIFE At the outset of the interview, voters were asked to rate the quality of life in the City of Arroyo Grande using a five-point scale of excellent, good, fair, poor, or very poor. As shown in Figure 1 below, nearly nine-in-ten voters shared favorable opinions of the quality of life in Arroyo Grande, with 40% reporting it is excellent and 49% stating it is good. Approximately 8% of voters surveyed rated the quality of life in the City as fair, whereas just 2% used poor or very poor to describe the quality of life in Arroyo Grande. Question 2 How would you rate the overall quality of life in Arroyo Grande? Would you say it is excellent, good, fair, poor or very poor? FIGURE 1 QUALITY OF LIFE Figures 2 and 3 show how ratings of the quality of life in the City of Arroyo Grande varied by age of the respondent, gender, length of residence, presence of a child in the home, and home ownership. The most striking pattern in the figures is the consistency with which voters provided high ratings for the quality of life in the City, with at least 78% of respondents in every subgroup rating the quality of life in Arroyo Grande as excellent or good. FIGURE 2 QUALITY OF LIFE BY AGE & GENDER Not sure 0.4 Very poor 0.9Poor 1.1 Fair 8.4 Good 49.3 Excellent 39.9 45.9 38.0 47.6 45.6 53.2 Excellent 22.1 27.8 38.2 47.9 41.5 Good 60.9 45.1 40.160.7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 18 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 64 65 or older Male Female Age Gender% RespondentsPage 245 of 282 Quality of Life & City ServicesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 6City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . FIGURE 3 QUALITY OF LIFE BY YEARS IN ARROYO GRANDE, CHILD IN HSLD & HOMEOWNER ON VOTER FILE CHANGES TO IMPROVE ARROYO GRANDE The next question in this series asked voters to indicate the one thing that city government could change to make Arroyo Grande a bet- ter place to live, now and in the future. Question 3 was posed in an open-ended manner, allow- ing residents to mention any aspect or attribute that came to mind without being prompted by or restricted to a particular list of options. True North later reviewed the verbatim responses and grouped them into the categories shown in Figure 4 on the next page. Among specific changes desired, improving infrastructure and roads was the most common response at 16%, followed by addressing homeless issues (8%), reducing traffic congestion (6%), and providing more sidewalks (5%). It is also worth noting that nearly one-quarter of respondents could not think of a change to Arroyo Grande that they desired (14%) or indicated that no changes are needed, everything is fine as is (9%). 39.4 42.3 35.2 44.7 51.3 48.8 50.3 41.037.0 50.3 36.0 Excellent 43.7 50.9 45.1 50.7 Good 47.2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Less than 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 or more Yes No Yes No Years in Arroyo Grande (Q1) Child in Hsld (Q14) Homeowner on Voter File% RespondentsPage 246 of 282 Quality of Life & City ServicesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 7City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Question 3 If the city government could change one thing to make Arroyo Grande a better place to live now and in the future, what change would you like to see? FIGURE 4 CHANGES TO IMPROVE CITY OVERALL PERFORMANCE RATING The final question in this series asked respondents to indicate if, overall, they were satisfied or dissatisfied with the job the City of Arroyo Grande is doing to provide city services. Because this question does not reference a specific program, facil- ity, or service and requested that the respondent consider the City’s performance in general, the findings of this question may be regarded as an overall performance rating for the City. As shown in Figure 5 on the next page, eight-in-ten voters surveyed indicated that they were sat- isfied with the City of Arroyo Grande’s efforts to provide municipal services, with 31% saying they were very satisfied and 49% somewhat satisfied. Approximately 14% reported that they were dissatisfied with the City’s overall performance, whereas 5% were unsure or unwilling to state their opinion. For the interested reader, figures 6 and 7 display how the percentage of respon- dents satisfied with the City’s overall performance varied across demographic subgroups. 16.2 14.2 9.3 8.0 5.7 5.1 4.8 4.7 3.5 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 2.4 3.4 1.6 0 5 10 15 20 Improve infrastructure, roads Not sure / Cannot think of anything specific No changes needed / Everything is fine Address homeless issues Reduce traffic congestion Provide more sidewalks Provide more affordable housing Provide more bike, walking trails Clean up, beautify City Reduce cost of living Provide rec activities, events Improve, redo Brisco interchange Limit growth, development Support small, local businesses Address parking issues Improve parks, rec facilities Improve City Council, Gov process Reduce taxes, fees Provide more police presence Increase public safety Address water issues Improve economy, jobs Improve schools, education Improve City-resident communication Improve shopping, dining opportunities Improve downtown Improve spending, budgeting % Respondents Page 247 of 282 Quality of Life & City ServicesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 8City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Question 4 Generally speaking, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the job the City of Arroyo Grande is doing to provide city services? FIGURE 5 OVERALL SATISFACTION FIGURE 6 OVERALL SATISFACTION BY AGE & GENDER FIGURE 7 OVERALL SATISFACTION BY YEARS IN ARROYO GRANDE, CHILD IN HSLD & HOMEOWNER ON VOTER FILE Very satisfied 31.4 Somewhat satisfied 49.2 Somewhat dissatisfied 10.7 Very dissatisfied 3.7 Not sure 4.7 Prefer not to answer 0.3 38.2 31.7 48.0 50.7 47.4 Very satisfied 25.5 20.6 17.9 38.2 31.4 Smwt satisfied 55.7 45.8 47.1 54.6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 18 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 64 65 or older Male Female Age Gender% Respondents23.0 33.1 28.0 54.6 46.8 47.4 52.8 36.532.828.825.0 Very satisfied 36.2 50.2 52.1 46.4 Smwt satisfied 52.8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Less than 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 or more Yes No Yes No Years in Arroyo Grande (Q1) Child in Hsld (Q14) Homeowner on Voter File% RespondentsPage 248 of 282 Initial Ballot TestTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 9City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I NITIAL BALLOT TEST The primary research objective of this survey was to estimate voters’ support for establishing a one-cent sales tax to provide funding for city services in Arroyo Grande, such as keeping streets, sidewalks, infrastructure, parks, and community facilities safe, clean, and well-maintained; fixing potholes; providing fire protection, paramedic, police, and 911 emergency services; and addressing homelessness. To this end, Question 5 was designed to take an early assessment of voters’ support for the proposed measure. The motivation for placing Question 5 near the front of the survey is twofold. First, voter support for a measure can often depend on the amount of information they have about a measure. At this point in the survey, the respondent has not been provided information about the proposed measure beyond what is presented in the ballot language. This situation is analogous to a voter casting a ballot with limited knowledge about the measure, such as what might occur in the absence of an effective campaign. Question 5, also known as the Initial Ballot Test, is thus a good measure of voter support for the proposed measure as it is today, on the natural. Because the Initial Ballot Test provides a gauge of natural support for the measure, it also serves a second purpose in that it provides a useful baseline from which to judge the impact of various informa- tion items conveyed later in the survey on voter support for the measure. Question 5 Next year, voters in Arroyo Grande may be asked to vote on a local ballot measure. Let me read you a summary of the measure. To provide funding for city services in Arroyo Grande, such as keeping streets, sidewalks, infrastructure, parks, and community facilities safe, clean, and well-maintained; fixing potholes; providing fire protection, paramedic, police, and 911 emergency services; and addressing homelessness; shall City of Arroyo Grande's ordinance establishing a one-cent sales tax be adopted, providing 6 million dollars annually for general government use for 10 years that can't be taken away by the State, with citizen oversight, inde- pendent audits, and all money locally controlled? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? FIGURE 8 INITIAL BALLOT TEST As shown in Figure 8, 65% of likely November 2024 voters surveyed indicated that they would support the proposed one-cent sales tax, whereas 29% stated that they would oppose the measure and 6% were unsure or unwilling to share their vote choice. For general taxes in California, the level of support recorded at the Initial Ballot Test is approximately 15 percent- age points above the simple majority (50%+1) required for passage. Prefer not to answer 0.1 Not sure 5.7 Definitely no 15.9 Probably no 12.8 Probably yes 30.5 Definitely yes 34.9 Page 249 of 282 Initial Ballot TestTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 10City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . SUPPORT BY SUBGROUPS For the interested reader, Table 1 shows how support for the measure at the Initial Ballot Test varied by key demographic traits. The blue column (Approxi- mate % of Universe) indicates the percentage of the likely November 2024 electorate that each subgroup category comprises. Support for the proposed measure was widespread, exceeding a majority in nearly all identified subgroups. When compared to their respective counterparts, sup- port was strongest among respondents who registered to vote in the City on or after November 2018, Democrats and dual-Democrat households, newer residents (less than 5 years), those sat- isfied with the City’s overall performance, respondents who rated the City’s fiscal management as excellent or good, lower propensity voters (likely to vote in November, but not in March), and males. Also of note is that support was remarkably consistent (within 3%) across age cohorts. TABLE 1 DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF SUPPORT AT INITIAL BALLOT TEST Approximate % of Voter Universe % Probably or Definitely Yes % Not sure Overall 100.0 65.4 5.7 18 to 29 12.7 66.2 15.1 30 to 39 12.9 65.6 7.3 40 to 49 14.5 63.9 1.8 50 to 64 22.5 66.8 4.4 65 or older 37.5 64.7 4.4 Since Nov '18 15.9 81.2 6.9 Jun '06 to <Nov '18 24.0 66.0 7.1 Before Jun '06 60.2 61.0 4.9 Single dem 16.3 80.3 2.9 Dual dem 11.1 81.1 2.8 Single rep 12.5 56.4 4.6 Dual rep 13.7 42.6 1.3 Other / Mixed 46.5 65.5 9.1 Less than 5 19.9 75.9 4.0 5 to 9 20.1 57.0 5.8 10 to 14 13.4 64.3 1.4 15 or more 46.7 64.9 7.7 Democrat 37.6 77.8 6.2 Republican 32.4 50.6 3.8 Other / DTS 30.0 65.8 7.4 Satisfied 84.8 68.6 5.5 Dissatisfied 15.2 53.0 4.0 Excellent, good 38.1 79.1 2.8 Fair 25.8 56.8 7.7 Poor, very poor 13.1 39.8 2.6 Not sure 23.0 69.9 10.5 Yes 28.8 69.2 4.1 No 71.2 66.7 6.6 Yes 66.4 65.6 4.7 No 33.6 64.9 7.9 Yes 81.0 66.4 5.8 No 19.0 61.1 5.5 Yes 77.4 62.8 5.1 No 22.6 74.4 7.9 Male 50.8 72.7 4.6 Female 49.2 59.0 7.0Gender Child in Hsld (Q14) Homeowner on Voter File Likely to Vote by Mail Likely Mar 2024 Voter Age Household Party Type Years in Arroyo Grande (Q1) Fiscal Management Rating (Q13) Party Registration Year Overall Satisfaction (Q4) Page 250 of 282 Initial Ballot TestTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 11City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . REASONS FOR NOT SUPPORTING MEASURE Respondents who opposed the measure (or were unsure) at the Initial Ballot Test were subsequently asked if there was a particular rea- son for their position. Question 6 was asked in an open-ended manner, allowing respondents to mention any reason that came to mind without being prompted by, or restricted to, a particular list of options. True North later reviewed the verbatim responses and grouped them into the cat- egories shown in Figure 9. Among the reasons offered for not supporting the measure, a belief that taxes are already too high (44%) and the perception that city funds have been/will be mismanaged or misspent (37%) were the most common, followed by a need for more information (16%). Question 6 Is there a particular reason why you do not support or are unsure about the mea- sure I just described? FIGURE 9 REASONS FOR NOT SUPPORTING MEASURE 44.3 36.8 15.9 6.1 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.0 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.6 1.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Taxes already too high Money is misspent, mismanaged Need more information Do not trust City Money will go to employee salaries, pensions Measure is too expensive Other ways to be funded Other higher priorities in community City has enough money Not sure / No particular reason City services are okay as-is, no need for more money Mentioned past ballot measure It will hurt business economy % Respondents Who Do Not Support Measure Page 251 of 282 Projects & ServicesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 12City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . P ROJECTS & SERVICES The ballot language presented in Question 5 indicated that the proposed measure would provide funding for city services in Arroyo Grande, such as keeping streets, sidewalks, infrastructure, parks, and community facilities safe, clean, and well-maintained; fixing potholes; providing fire protection, paramedic, police, and 911 emergency services; and addressing homelessness. The purpose of Question 7 was to provide respondents with a full range of services that may be funded by the proposed measure, as well as identify which of these services voters most favored funding with the proceeds of the measure. After reading each service, respondents were asked if they would favor or oppose spending some of the money on that particular item assuming that the measure passed. Descriptions of the services tested, as well as voters’ responses, are shown in Figure 10.3 The order in which the services were presented to respondents was randomized to avoid a systematic position bias. Question 7 The measure we've been discussing will provide funding for a variety of services in your community. If the measure passes, would you favor or oppose using some of the money to: _____, or do you not have an opinion? FIGURE 10 PROJECTS & SERVICES All projects and services tested were popular with Arroyo Grande voters, with at least seven-in- ten respondents indicating they would favor spending measure proceeds on each of the items tested. That said, the services that resonated with the largest percentage of respondents were repairing infrastructure including sidewalks, curbs, and storm drains (87% strongly or somewhat 3. For the full text of the services tested, turn to Question 7 in Questionnaire & Toplines on page 32. 63.9 62.5 63.3 58.3 57.1 59.2 48.2 48.3 49.4 33.8 23.3 24.5 23.2 28.0 27.6 23.2 32.4 27.9 24.7 37.2 0 102030405060708090100 Repair infrastructure including sidewalks, curbs, and storm drains Fix potholes Pave and maintain local streets Keep parks, recreation facilities, community centers, public facilities safe, clean, well-maintained Provide fire protection and paramedic services Provide quick responses to 911 emergencies Clean up piles of trash, litter that people dump along streets, sidewalks, in public areas Provide police services, including crime prevention and investigation Address homelessness Remove graffitiQ7cQ7aQ7bQ7dQ7eQ7fQ7jQ7gQ7hQ7i % Respondents Strongly favor Somewhat favor Page 252 of 282 Projects & ServicesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 13City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . favor), fixing potholes (87%), paving and maintaining local streets (87%), and keeping parks, rec- reation facilities, community centers, and public facilities safe, clean, and well-maintained (86%). SERVICE RATINGS BY INITIAL SUPPORT Table 2 on the next page presents the top five services (showing the percentage of respondents who strongly favor each) by position at the Initial Ballot Test. Not surprisingly, individuals who initially opposed the measure were generally less likely to favor spending money on a given service when compared with supporters. Never- theless, initial supporters, opponents, and the undecided did agree on two of the top five priori- ties for funding. Page 253 of 282 Projects & ServicesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 14City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . TABLE 2 TOP PROJECTS & SERVICES BY POSITION AT INITIAL BALLOT TEST Position at Initial Ballot Test (Q5) Item Project or Service Summary % Strongly Favor Q7c Repair infrastructure including sidewalks, curbs, and storm drains 77 Q7b Pave and maintain local streets 75 Q7a Fix potholes 71 Q7d Keep parks, recreation facilities, community centers, public facilities safe, clean, well- maintained 70 Q7f Provide quick responses to 911 emergencies 69 Q7a Fix potholes 42 Q7e Provide fire protection and paramedic services 40 Q7c Repair infrastructure including sidewalks, curbs, and storm drains 38 Q7g Provide police services, including crime prevention and investigation 38 Q7b Pave and maintain local streets 37 Q7a Fix potholes 66 Q7f Provide quick responses to 911 emergencies 64 Q7b Pave and maintain local streets 61 Q7e Provide fire protection and paramedic services 55 Q7h Address homelessness 54 Probably or Definitely Yes (n = 318) Probably or Definitely No (n = 140) Not Sure (n = 28) Page 254 of 282 Positive ArgumentsTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 15City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . P OSITIVE ARGUMENTS If the City chooses to place a measure on an upcoming ballot, voters will be exposed to various arguments about the measure in the ensuing months. Proponents of the measure will present arguments to try to persuade voters to support a measure, just as opponents may present argu- ments to achieve the opposite goal. For this study to be a reliable gauge of voter support for the proposed sales tax measure, it is important that the survey simulate the type of discussion and debate that will occur prior to the vote taking place and identify how this information ultimately shapes voters’ opinions about the measure. The objective of Question 8 was thus to present respondents with arguments in favor of the pro- posed measure and identify whether they felt the arguments were convincing reasons to support it. Arguments in opposition to the measure were also presented and are discussed later in this report (see Negative Arguments on page 20). Within each series, specific arguments were admin- istered in random order to avoid a systematic position bias. Question 8 What I'd like to do now is tell you what some people are saying about the measure we've been discussing. Supporters of the measure say: _____. Do you think this is a very convinc- ing, somewhat convincing, or not at all convincing reason to SUPPORT the measure? FIGURE 11 POSITIVE ARGUMENTS 47.9 48.7 44.9 39.2 41.8 38.6 42.0 38.4 32.1 28.6 23.5 26.3 31.7 28.9 30.7 25.3 28.0 33.1 0 102030405060708090100 City maintains 73 mi of streets; measure will allow City to fix potholes, repairs, maintenance to streets, sidewalks, storm drains, pipes, facilities; if we don’t take care of it now, more expensive to repair in future All money raised by measure will be used to fund essential services, facilities here in Arroyo Grande; by law, it can’t be taken away by State Most of sales tax generated locally goes to State; measure ensures higher percentage of sales tax stays here in, we have control over how those funds are spent By keeping city safe, clean, well-maintained, this measure will help protect quality of life, keep Arroyo Grande a special place to live Fast emergency response for 911 critical for saving lives; measure will ensure enough police, firefighters, dispatchers, paramedics to respond quickly to 911 emergencies High quality parks, open spaces, sports fields, recreation programs help keep kids healthy, active, away from drugs, gangs, crime Substantial amount of money raised by sales tax will come from people who visit community, but don’t live here; measure will make sure they pay fair share for facilities, services they use Measure includes a clear system of accountability incl citizen oversight, independent audits, public disclosure of how all funds are spent Measure costs just one dollar for every $100 purchased, groceries, medicine, many other essential items are excluded from the taxQ8eQ8aQ8fQ8cQ8hQ8iQ8dQ8bQ8g % Respondents Very convincing Somewhat convincing Page 255 of 282 Positive ArgumentsTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 16City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Figure 11 presents the truncated positive arguments tested, as well as voters’ reactions to the arguments. The arguments are ranked from most convincing to least convincing based on the percentage of respondents who indicated that the argument was either a ‘very convincing’ or ‘somewhat convincing’ reason to support the sales tax measure. Using this methodology, the most compelling positive arguments were: The City maintains 73 miles of streets in Arroyo Grande. The funding raised by this measure will allow the City to fix potholes and keep up with basic repairs and maintenance to streets, sidewalks, underground storm drains and pipes, and public facilities. If we don't take care of it now, it will be a lot more expensive to repair in the future (77% very or somewhat convincing), All money raised by the measure will be used to fund essential services and facilities here in Arroyo Grande. By law, it can't be taken away by the State (72%), and Most of the sales tax generated locally goes to the State of California. This measure ensures that a higher percentage of our sales tax dollars stay here in Arroyo Grande and we have local control over how those funds are spent (71%). POSITIVE ARGUMENTS BY INITIAL SUPPORT Table 3 on the next page lists the top five most convincing positive arguments (showing the percentage of respondents who cited it as very convincing) according to respondents’ vote choice at the Initial Ballot Test. The positive arguments resonated with a much higher percentage of voters initially inclined to support the measure compared with those who initially opposed the measure or were unsure. Nevertheless, two arguments were ranked among the top five most compelling by all three groups. Page 256 of 282 Positive ArgumentsTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 17City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . TABLE 3 TOP POSITIVE ARGUMENTS BY POSITION AT INITIAL BALLOT TEST Position at Initial Ballot Test (Q5) Item Positive Argument Summary % Very Convincing Q8e City maintains 73 mi of streets; measure will allow City to fix potholes, repairs, maintenance to streets, sidewalks, storm drains, pipes, facilities; if we don’t take care of it now, more expensive to repair in future 64 Q8a All money raised by measure will be used to fund essential services, facilities here in Arroyo Grande; by law, it can’t be taken away by State 63 Q8f Most of sales tax generated locally goes to State; measure ensures higher percentage of sales tax stays here in, we have control over how those funds are spent 62 Q8h Fast emergency response for 911 critical for saving lives; measure will ensure enough police, firefighters, dispatchers, paramedics to respond quickly to 911 emergencies 56 Q8d Substantial amount of money raised by sales tax will come from people who visit community, but don’t live here; measure will make sure they pay fair share for facilities, services they use 55 Q8a All money raised by measure will be used to fund essential services, facilities here in Arroyo Grande; by law, it can’t be taken away by State 18 Q8i High quality parks, open spaces, sports fields, recreation programs help keep kids healthy, active, away from drugs, gangs, crime 14 Q8e City maintains 73 mi of streets; measure will allow City to fix potholes, repairs, maintenance to streets, sidewalks, storm drains, pipes, facilities; if we don’t take care of it now, more expensive to repair in future 13 Q8d Substantial amount of money raised by sales tax will come from people who visit community, but don’t live here; measure will make sure they pay fair share for facilities, services they use 13 Q8c By keeping city safe, clean, well-maintained, this measure will help protect quality of life, keep Arroyo Grande a special place to live 11 Q8f Most of sales tax generated locally goes to State; measure ensures higher percentage of sales tax stays here in, we have control over how those funds are spent 43 Q8i High quality parks, open spaces, sports fields, recreation programs help keep kids healthy, active, away from drugs, gangs, crime 40 Q8d Substantial amount of money raised by sales tax will come from people who visit community, but don’t live here; measure will make sure they pay fair share for facilities, services they use 40 Q8h Fast emergency response for 911 critical for saving lives; measure will ensure enough police, firefighters, dispatchers, paramedics to respond quickly to 911 emergencies 38 Q8a All money raised by measure will be used to fund essential services, facilities here in Arroyo Grande; by law, it can’t be taken away by State 37 Probably or Definitely Yes (n = 318) Probably or Definitely No (n = 140) Not Sure (n = 28) Page 257 of 282 Interim Ballot TestTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 18City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I NTERIM BALLOT TEST After exposing respondents to services that could be funded by the measure as well as the types of positive arguments voters may encounter during an election cycle, the survey again presented respondents with the ballot language used previously to gauge how support for the proposed sales tax measure may have changed. As shown in Figure 12, overall support among likely November 2024 voters increased to 68%, with 40% of voters indicating that they would definitely vote yes on the measure. Approximately 26% of respondents opposed the measure at this point in the survey, and an additional 6% were unsure or unwilling to state their vote choice. Question 9 Sometimes people change their mind about a measure once they have more infor- mation about it. Now that you have heard a bit more about the measure, let me read you a sum- mary of it again. To provide funding for city services in Arroyo Grande, such as keeping streets, sidewalks, infrastructure, parks, and community facilities safe, clean, and well-maintained; fix- ing potholes; providing fire protection, paramedic, police, and 911 emergency services; and addressing homelessness; shall City of Arroyo Grande's ordinance establishing a one-cent sales tax be adopted, providing 6 million dollars annually for general government use for 10 years that can't be taken away by the State, with citizen oversight, independent audits, and all money locally controlled? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? FIGURE 12 INTERIM BALLOT TEST SUPPORT BY SUBGROUPS Table 4 on the next page shows how support for the measure at this point in the survey varied by key voter subgroups, as well as the change in subgroup sup- port when compared with the Initial Ballot Test. Positive differences appear in green, whereas negative differences appear in red. As shown in the table, support for the sales tax measure increased or decreased by modest amounts (5 percentage points or less) between the Initial and Interim Ballot Test for nearly all voter subgroups. Notable exceptions include voters living in sin- gle Republican households (+7%) and voters under 30 years of age (+6%). Definitely yes 39.5 Probably yes 28.0 Probably no 10.6 Definitely no 15.5 Not sure 5.7 Prefer not to answer 0.6 Page 258 of 282 Interim Ballot TestTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 19City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . TABLE 4 DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF SUPPORT AT INTERIM BALLOT TEST Approximate % of Voter Universe % Probably or Definitely Yes Change From Initial Ballot Test (Q5) Overall 100.0 67.6 +2.2 18 to 29 12.7 72.2 +6.0 30 to 39 12.9 68.2 +2.6 40 to 49 14.5 60.6 -3.3 50 to 64 22.5 70.2 +3.4 65 or older 37.5 66.9 +2.1 Since Nov '18 15.9 85.3 +4.1 Jun '06 to <Nov '18 24.0 65.4 -0.6 Before Jun '06 60.2 63.7 +2.8 Single dem 16.3 83.4 +3.1 Dual dem 11.1 82.5 +1.4 Single rep 12.5 63.7 +7.3 Dual rep 13.7 44.4 +1.8 Other / Mixed 46.5 66.3 +0.8 Less than 5 19.9 77.3 +1.4 5 to 9 20.1 56.8 -0.2 10 to 14 13.4 68.5 +4.2 15 or more 46.7 67.8 +2.9 Democrat 37.6 81.1 +3.3 Republican 32.4 54.2 +3.6 Other / DTS 30.0 65.0 -0.8 Satisfied 84.8 70.1 +1.6 Dissatisfied 15.2 53.5 +0.5 Excellent, good 38.1 83.4 +4.3 Fair 25.8 56.1 -0.6 Poor, very poor 13.1 36.0 -3.8 Not sure 23.0 75.2 +5.3 Yes 28.8 69.5 +0.3 No 71.2 69.8 +3.1 Yes 66.4 67.1 +1.5 No 33.6 68.5 +3.6 Yes 81.0 68.0 +1.6 No 19.0 65.6 +4.4 Yes 77.4 64.0 +1.2 No 22.6 79.8 +5.5 Male 50.8 73.2 +0.5 Female 49.2 63.2 +4.2 Homeowner on Voter File Likely to Vote by Mail Likely Mar 2024 Voter Gender Party Overall Satisfaction (Q4) Fiscal Management Rating (Q13) Child in Hsld (Q14) Age Registration Year Household Party Type Years in Arroyo Grande (Q1) Page 259 of 282 Negative ArgumentsTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 20City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N EGATIVE ARGUMENTS Whereas Question 8 of the survey presented respondents with arguments in favor of the sales tax measure, Question 10 presented respondents with arguments designed to elicit opposition to the measure. In the case of Question 10, however, respondents were asked whether they felt that the argument was a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not at all convincing reason to oppose the measure. The arguments tested, as well as voters’ opinions about the arguments, are presented below in Figure 13. Question 10 Next, let me tell you what opponents of the measure are saying. Opponents of the measure say: _____. Do you think this is a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not at all convincing reason to OPPOSE the measure? FIGURE 13 NEGATIVE ARGUMENTS The most compelling negative arguments were: Local businesses and residents were hit hard by the pandemic and are now facing high gas prices and runaway inflation. Many are struggling to stay afloat. Now is not the time to raise taxes (65% very or somewhat convincing), Everyone is coming after us for tax increases - including state and county taxes, school bonds, and other taxes that will be on the ballot next year. Enough is enough. We can't afford to keep raising our taxes (63%), and Arroyo Grande is an expensive place to live, especially for young families, seniors, and those on fixed incomes. Passing this tax will make it even less affordable (63%). NEGATIVE ARGUMENTS BY INITIAL SUPPORT Table 5 on the next page ranks the top five negative arguments (showing the percentage of respondents who cited each as very con- vincing) according to respondents’ vote choice at the Initial Ballot Test. 35.1 34.9 33.1 33.8 28.9 16.7 29.7 28.5 29.8 26.2 27.8 23.4 0 102030405060708090100 Local businesses, residents hit hard by pandemic, now facing high gas prices, runaway inflation; many struggling to stay afloat; now is not the time to raise taxes Everyone coming after us for tax increases, state, county taxes, school bonds, other taxes on ballot next yr; enough is enough; we can’t afford to keep raising taxes Arroyo Grande is an expensive place to live, especially for young families, seniors, those on fixed incomes; passing this tax will make it even less affordable Residents are already paying too many taxes, incl state, county taxes, school bonds, other taxes; enough is enough; we can’t afford to keep raising taxes There are no guarantees on how funds will be spent, City can divert the money to pet projects without any say from voters; we can’t trust City with tax dollars Raising the sales tax will hurt local economy and the businesses in our communityQ10aQ10d2Q10bQ10d1Q10cQ10e % Respondents Very convincing Somewhat convincing Page 260 of 282 Negative ArgumentsTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 21City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . TABLE 5 TOP NEGATIVE ARGUMENTS BY POSITION AT INITIAL BALLOT TEST Position at Initial Ballot Test (Q5) Item Negative Argument Summary % Very Convincing Q10d1 Residents are already paying too many taxes, incl state, county taxes, school bonds, other taxes; enough is enough; we can’t afford to keep raising taxes 22 Q10b Arroyo Grande is an expensive place to live, especially for young families, seniors, those on fixed incomes; passing this tax will make it even less affordable 22 Q10a Local businesses, residents hit hard by pandemic, now facing high gas prices, runaway inflation; many struggling to stay afloat; now is not the time to raise taxes 21 Q10c There are no guarantees on how funds will be spent, City can divert the money to pet projects without any say from voters; we can’t trust City with tax dollars 21 Q10d2 Everyone coming after us for tax increases, state, county taxes, school bonds, other taxes on ballot next yr; enough is enough; we can’t afford to keep raising taxes 18 Q10d1 Residents are already paying too many taxes, incl state, county taxes, school bonds, other taxes; enough is enough; we can’t afford to keep raising taxes 70 Q10d2 Everyone coming after us for tax increases, state, county taxes, school bonds, other taxes on ballot next yr; enough is enough; we can’t afford to keep raising taxes 68 Q10a Local businesses, residents hit hard by pandemic, now facing high gas prices, runaway inflation; many struggling to stay afloat; now is not the time to raise taxes 65 Q10b Arroyo Grande is an expensive place to live, especially for young families, seniors, those on fixed incomes; passing this tax will make it even less affordable 56 Q10c There are no guarantees on how funds will be spent, City can divert the money to pet projects without any say from voters; we can’t trust City with tax dollars 47 Q10b Arroyo Grande is an expensive place to live, especially for young families, seniors, those on fixed incomes; passing this tax will make it even less affordable 51 Q10a Local businesses, residents hit hard by pandemic, now facing high gas prices, runaway inflation; many struggling to stay afloat; now is not the time to raise taxes 43 Q10d2 Everyone coming after us for tax increases, state, county taxes, school bonds, other taxes on ballot next yr; enough is enough; we can’t afford to keep raising taxes 34 Q10c There are no guarantees on how funds will be spent, City can divert the money to pet projects without any say from voters; we can’t trust City with tax dollars 32 Q10d1 Residents are already paying too many taxes, incl state, county taxes, school bonds, other taxes; enough is enough; we can’t afford to keep raising taxes 22 Probably or Definitely Yes (n = 318) Probably or Definitely No (n = 140) Not Sure (n = 28) Page 261 of 282 Final Ballot TestTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 22City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F INAL BALLOT TEST Voters’ opinions about ballot measures are often not rigid, especially when the amount of infor- mation presented to the public on a measure has been limited. A goal of the survey was thus to gauge how voters’ opinions about the proposed measure may be affected by the information they could encounter during the course of an election cycle. After providing respondents with the wording of the proposed measure, services that could be funded, and arguments in favor of and against the proposal, the survey again asked voters whether they would vote ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on the proposed sales tax measure. Question 11 Now that you have heard a bit more about the measure, let me read you a sum- mary of it one more time. To provide funding for city services in Arroyo Grande, such as keeping streets, sidewalks, infrastructure, parks, and community facilities safe, clean, and well-main- tained; fixing potholes; providing fire protection, paramedic, police, and 911 emergency ser- vices; and addressing homelessness; shall City of Arroyo Grande's ordinance establishing a one- cent sales tax be adopted, providing 6 million dollars annually for general government use for 10 years that can't be taken away by the State, with citizen oversight, independent audits, and all money locally controlled? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? FIGURE 14 FINAL BALLOT TEST At this point in the survey, support for the one-cent sales tax measure was found among 60% of likely November 2024 voters, with 35% indicating that they would definitely support the mea- sure. Approximately 30% of respondents were opposed to the measure at the Final Ballot Test, and 10% were unsure or unwilling to state their vote choice. Prefer not to answer 1.3 Not sure 8.6 Definitely no 18.3 Probably no 12.1 Probably yes 24.4 Definitely yes 35.2 Page 262 of 282 Change in SupportTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 23City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C HANGE IN SUPPORT Table 6 provides a closer look at how support for the proposed measure changed over the course of the interview by calculating the difference in support between the Initial, Interim, and Final Ballot tests within various subgroups of voters. The percentage of support for the measure at the Final Ballot Test is shown in the column with the heading % Probably or Definitely Yes. The columns to the right show the difference between the Final and the Initial, and the Final and Interim Ballot Tests. Positive differences appear in green, and negative differences appear in red. TABLE 6 DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF SUPPORT AT FINAL BALLOT TEST As expected, voters generally responded to the negative arguments with a reduction in their sup- port for the sales tax measure when compared with the levels recorded at the Interim Ballot Test. The general trend over the course of the entire survey (Initial to Final Ballot Test) was also one of declining support across voter subgroups, averaging -6% overall. Even with this trend, however, support for the proposed sales tax measure at the Final Ballot Test (60%) remained 10% above the simple majority (50%+1) required for passage. Approximate % of Voter Universe % Probably or Definitely Yes Change From Initial Ballot Test (Q5) Change From Interim Ballot Test (Q9) Overall 100.0 59.6 -5.8 -8.0 18 to 29 12.7 61.3 -4.9 -10.8 30 to 39 12.9 61.0 -4.6 -7.1 40 to 49 14.5 56.1 -7.8 -4.5 50 to 64 22.5 60.2 -6.7 -10.1 65 or older 37.5 59.5 -5.3 -7.4 Since Nov '18 15.9 70.8 -10.4 -14.5 Jun '06 to <Nov '18 24.0 56.4 -9.6 -9.0 Before Jun '06 60.2 57.9 -3.1 -5.9 Single dem 16.3 74.0 -6.3 -9.4 Dual dem 11.1 79.8 -1.3 -2.7 Single rep 12.5 46.8 -9.6 -16.8 Dual rep 13.7 37.9 -4.7 -6.5 Other / Mixed 46.5 59.5 -6.0 -6.8 Less than 5 19.9 72.3 -3.6 -5.0 5 to 9 20.1 53.4 -3.5 -3.4 10 to 14 13.4 55.0 -9.3 -13.5 15 or more 46.7 58.1 -6.7 -9.6 Democrat 37.6 74.4 -3.4 -6.8 Republican 32.4 41.4 -9.2 -12.8 Other / DTS 30.0 60.7 -5.1 -4.3 Satisfied 84.8 62.1 -6.4 -8.0 Dissatisfied 15.2 47.1 -5.9 -6.5 Excellent, good 38.1 75.6 -3.5 -7.8 Fair 25.8 50.9 -5.9 -5.2 Poor, very poor 13.1 24.8 -15.0 -11.2 Not sure 23.0 65.9 -4.0 -9.3 Yes 28.8 57.9 -11.2 -11.5 No 71.2 62.9 -3.8 -6.9 Yes 66.4 61.4 -4.2 -5.7 No 33.6 56.0 -8.9 -12.5 Yes 81.0 59.7 -6.7 -8.4 No 19.0 59.2 -2.0 -6.4 Yes 77.4 59.2 -3.6 -4.8 No 22.6 60.8 -13.5 -19.0 Male 50.8 68.9 -3.8 -4.3 Female 49.2 51.3 -7.7 -11.9 Homeowner on Voter File Likely to Vote by Mail Likely Mar 2024 Voter Gender Party Overall Satisfaction (Q4) Fiscal Management Rating (Q13) Child in Hsld (Q14) Age Registration Year Household Party Type Years in Arroyo Grande (Q1) Page 263 of 282 Change in SupportTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 24City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Whereas Table 6 displays changes in support for the measure over the course of the interview at the subgroup level, Table 7 displays the individual-level changes that occurred between the Ini- tial and Final Ballot tests for the measure. On the left side of the table is shown each of the response options to the Initial Ballot Test and the percentage of respondents in each group. The cells in the body of the table depict movement within each response group (row) based on the information provided throughout the course of the survey as recorded by the Final Ballot Test. For example, in the first row we see that of the 34.9% of respondents who indicated that they would definitely support the measure at the Initial Ballot Test, 29.4% also indicated they would definitely support the measure at the Final Ballot Test. Approximately 2.7% moved to the proba- bly support group, 1.0% moved to the probably oppose group, 0.7% moved to the definitely oppose group, and 1.1% stated they were now unsure of their vote choice. To ease interpretation of the table, the cells are color coded. Red shaded cells indicate declining support, green shaded cells indicate increasing support, whereas white cells indicate no move- ment. Moreover, within the cells, a white font indicates a fundamental change in the vote: from yes to no, no to yes, or not sure to either yes or no. TABLE 7 MOVEMENT BETWEEN INITIAL & FINAL BALLOT TEST As one might expect, the information conveyed in the survey had the greatest impact on individ- uals who either weren’t sure about how they would vote at the Initial Ballot Test or were tentative in their vote choice (probably yes or probably no). Moreover, Table 7 makes clear that although the information did impact some voters, it did not do so in a consistent way for all respondents. Some respondents found the information conveyed during the course of the interview to be a reason to become more supportive of the measure, whereas a slightly larger percentage found the same information to be a reason to be less supportive. Despite 14% of respondents making a fundamental4 shift in their opinion about the measure over the course of the interview, the net impact is that support for the measure at the Final Ballot Test (60%) was just six percentage points different5 than support at the Initial Ballot Test (65%). 4. This is, they changed from a position of support, opposition, or undecided at the Initial Ballot Test to a dif- ferent position at the Final Ballot Test. 5. Calculated with unrounded numbers (see Table 6 on page 23). Definitely support Probably support Probably oppose Definitely oppose Not sure Definitely support 34.9%29.4% 2.7%1.0% 0.7% 1.1% Probably support 30.5%5.8% 20.2%1.6% 0.5% 2.5% Probably oppose 12.8%0.0% 0.6%7.3% 2.0%3.0% Definitely oppose 15.9%0.0% 0.0%1.4% 14.3%0.2% Not sure 5.9%0.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8%3.2% Initial Ballot Test (Q5) Final Ballot Test (Q11) Page 264 of 282 Final Ballot Test at Lower RateTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 25City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F INAL BALLOT TEST AT LOWER RATE The ballot language tested throughout the survey indicated that the measure would increase the local sales tax rate by one cent and be used to fund general city services. Voters who did not support the proposed measure at the Final Ballot Test (Question 11) were subsequently asked if they would support the measure if the rate were set at a lower amount: one-half cent. As shown in Figure 15, lowering the tax rate to one-half cent generated a modest amount of additional support for the proposed measure. An additional 8% of voters indicated they would support the measure if the tax rate were lowered to one-half cent, although nearly all of the addi- tional support for the measure was ‘soft’ (probably yes). Question 12 What if the measure I just described raised the sales tax by a lower amount: one- half cent? Would you vote yes or no on the measure? FIGURE 15 FINAL BALLOT TEST @ ONE-HALF CENT Prefer not to answer 1.3Not sure 6.4 Definitely no 14.4 Probably no 10.1 Probably yes 7.5 Definitely yes 0.8 Def, prob yes @ 1 cent (Q11) 59.6 Page 265 of 282 Fiscal ManagementTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 26City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F ISCAL MANAGEMENT The final substantive question of the survey asked respondents to rate the job the City of Arroyo Grande has done in managing its financial resources. Six-in-ten (63% of) voters gave the City pos- itive or neutral marks, with 6% rating the City’s performance as excellent, 32% good, and 26% fair. Approximately 13% of respondents rated the job the City has done in managing its finances as poor or very poor, while 24% confided they were not sure or preferred to not answer the ques- tion. Question 12 In your opinion, has the City of Arroyo Grande done an excellent, good, fair, poor or very poor job of managing its financial resources? FIGURE 16 OPINION OF FISCAL MANAGEMENT For the interested reader, figures 17 and 18 show how ratings of the City’s performance in managing its finances varied across key voter subgroups (among those with an opinion). It is worth noting the positive relationship between having a high opinion of the City’s performance in managing its financial resources and support for the proposed measure at the Initial Ballot Test. FIGURE 17 OPINION OF FISCAL MANAGEMENT BY YEARS IN ARROYO GRANDE & AGE Excellent 5.5 Good 32.1 Fair 25.5 Poor 8.2 Very poor 4.8 Not sure 22.7 Prefer not to answer 1.2 8.6 4.9 4.1 2.0 9.8 11.1 39.1 54.8 37.1 38.5 32.9 31.8 40.3 50.8 19.2 34.0 28.1 39.0 42.7 51.5 41.9 27.9 25.4 9.4 12.7 5.7 11.7 12.0 5.3 16.6 13.7 8.2 6.5 8.1 3.6 10.3 7.7 8.2 4.5 3.2 18.4 51.7 1.3 5.6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Less than 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 or more 18 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 64 65 or older Years in Arroyo Grande (Q1) Age% Respondents Who Provided OpinionVery poor Poor Fair Good Excellent Page 266 of 282 Fiscal ManagementTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 27City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . FIGURE 18 OPINION OF FISCAL MANAGEMENT BY CHILD IN HSLD, HOMEOWNER ON VOTER FILE, POSITION AT INITIAL BALLOT TEST & GENDER 9.1 6.7 8.5 0.8 7.4 7.2 50.6 46.9 31.8 49.4 28.3 31.5 41.0 44.1 40.1 31.0 31.1 38.7 29.3 38.8 58.6 37.1 29.1 17.9 6.2 8.8 14.9 7.2 18.4 9.9 9.2 12.6 6.5 6.0 3.3 13.7 5.3 7.1 3.7 10.8 29.4 3.28.8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Yes No Yes No Def, prob yes Def, prob no Not sure Male Female Child in Hsld (Q14) Homeowner on Voter File Position at Initial Ballot Test (Q5) Gender% Respondents Who Provided OpinionVery poor Poor Fair Good Excellent Page 267 of 282 Background & DemographicsTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 28City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B ACKGROUND & DEMOGRAPHICS TABLE 8 DEMOGRAPHICS OF SAMPLE In addition to questions directly related to the proposed measure, the study collected basic demographic informa- tion about respondents and their households. Some of this information was gathered during the interview, although much of it was collected from the voter file. The profile of the likely November 2024 voter sample repre- sented in this report is shown in Table 8. Total Respondents 487 Years in Arroyo Grande (Q1) Less than 5 19.9 5 to 9 20.1 10 to 14 13.4 15 or more 46.7 Prefer not to answer 0.0 Child in Hsld (Q14) Yes 27.4 No 67.8 Prefer not to answer 4.9 Gender Male 50.2 Female 48.7 Non-binary 0.4 Prefer not to answer 0.7 Party Democrat 37.6 Republican 32.4 Other / DTS 30.0 Age 18 to 29 12.7 30 to 39 12.9 40 to 49 14.5 50 to 64 22.5 65 or older 37.5 Registration Year Since Nov '18 15.9 Jun '06 to <Nov '18 24.0 Before Jun '06 60.2 Household Party Type Single dem 16.3 Dual dem 11.1 Single rep 12.5 Dual rep 13.7 Other / Mixed 46.5 Homeowner on Voter File Yes 66.4 No 33.6 Likely to Vote by Mail Yes 81.0 No 19.0 Likely Mar 2024 Voter Yes 77.4 No 22.6 Page 268 of 282 MethodologyTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 29City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M ETHODOLOGY The following sections outline the methodology used in the study, as well as the motivation for using certain techniques. QUESTIONNAIRE DEVELOPMENT Dr. McLarney of True North Research worked closely with the City of Arroyo Grande to develop a questionnaire that covered the topics of interest and avoided possible sources of systematic measurement error, including position-order effects, wording effects, response-category effects, scaling effects, and priming. Several questions included multiple individual items. Because asking the items in a set order can lead to a system- atic position bias in responses, items were asked in random order for each respondent. Some questions asked in this study were presented only to a subset of respondents. For exam- ple, only individuals who did not support the measure (or were unsure) at the Initial Ballot Test (Question 5) were asked the follow-up, open-ended Question 6 regarding their reasons for not supporting the measure. The questionnaire included with this report (see Questionnaire & Toplines on page 32) identifies the skip patterns that were used during the interview to ensure that each respondent received the appropriate questions. PROGRAMMING & PRE-TEST Prior to fielding the survey, the questionnaire was CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) programmed to assist interviewers when conduct- ing telephone interviews. The CATI program automatically navigates skip patterns, randomizes the appropriate question items, and alerts the interviewer to certain types of keypunching mis- takes should they occur. The survey was also programmed into a passcode-protected online sur- vey application to allow online participation for sampled voters. The integrity of the questionnaire was pre-tested internally by True North and by dialing into voter households in the City prior to formally beginning the survey. SAMPLE The survey was administered to a stratified and clustered random sample of regis- tered voters in the City who are likely to participate in the November 2024 general election, with a subset of voters who are also likely to participate in the lower turnout March 2024 primary election. Consistent with the profile of this universe, the sample was stratified into clusters, each representing a combination of age, gender, and household party type. Individuals were then ran- domly selected based on their profile into an appropriate cluster. This method ensures that if a person of a particular profile refuses to participate, they are replaced by an individual who shares their same profile. STATISTICAL MARGIN OF ERROR By using the probability-based sampling design noted above, True North ensured that the final sample was representative of voters in the City who are likely to participate in the November 2024 general election. The results of the survey can thus be used to estimate the opinions of all voters likely to participate in said election. Because not all voters participated in the study, however, the results have what is known as a sta- tistical margin of error due to sampling. The margin of error refers to the difference between what was found in the survey of 487 voters for a particular question and what would have been found if all of the estimated 12,324 likely November 2024 voters identified in the City had been surveyed for the study. Page 269 of 282 MethodologyTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 30City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Figure 19 provides a graphic plot of the maximum margin of error in this study. The maximum margin of error for a dichotomous percentage result occurs when the answers are evenly split such that 50% provide one response and 50% provide the alternative response. For this survey, the maximum margin of error is ± 4.4%. FIGURE 19 MAXIMUM MARGIN OF ERROR DUE TO SAMPLING Within this report, figures and tables show how responses to certain questions varied by sub- groups such as age, gender, and partisan affiliation. Figure 19 is thus useful for understanding how the maximum margin of error for a percentage estimate will grow as the number of individ- uals asked a question (or in a particular subgroup) shrinks. Because the margin of error grows exponentially as the sample size decreases, the reader should use caution when generalizing and interpreting the results for small subgroups. RECRUITING & DATA COLLECTION The survey followed a mixed-method design that employed multiple recruiting methods (telephone, text, and email) and multiple data collection methods (telephone and online). Telephone interviews averaged 16 minutes in length and were conducted during weekday evenings (5:30PM to 9PM) and on weekends (10AM to 5PM). It is stan- dard practice not to call during the day on weekdays because most working adults are unavail- able and thus calling during those hours would likely bias the sample. Voters recruited via email and text were assigned a unique passcode to ensure that only voters who received an invitation could access the online survey site, and that each voter could com- plete the survey one time only. During the data collection period, an email reminder notice was also sent to encourage participation among those who had yet to take the survey. A total of 487 surveys were completed between December 6 and December 12, 2023. 487 Respondents ± 4.4% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Sample Size (Number of Respondents)Margin of ErrorPage 270 of 282 MethodologyTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 31City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DATA PROCESSING Data processing consisted of checking the data for errors or inconsis- tencies, coding and recoding responses, weighting, and preparing frequency analyses and cross- tabulations. ROUNDING Numbers that end in 0.5 or higher are rounded up to the nearest whole num- ber, whereas numbers that end in 0.4 or lower are rounded down to the nearest whole number. These same rounding rules are also applied, when needed, to arrive at numbers that include a decimal place in constructing figures and tables. Occasionally, these rounding rules lead to small discrepancies in the first decimal place when comparing tables and charts for a given question. Page 271 of 282 Questionnaire & ToplinesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 32City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q UESTIONNAIRE & TOPLINES True North Research, Inc. © 2023 Page 1 City of Arroyo Grande Sales Tax Survey Final Toplines (n=487) December 2023 Section 1: Introduction to Study Hi, may I please speak to _____. My name is _____, and I’m calling on behalf of TNR, an independent public opinion research firm. We’re conducting a survey of voters about important issues in Arroyo Grande (Uh-ROY-yo GRAWN-day) and I’d like to get your opinions. If needed: This is a survey about important issues in your community. I’m NOT trying to sell anything and I won’t ask for a donation. If needed: The survey should take about 12 minutes to complete. If needed: If now is not a convenient time, can you let me know a better time so I can call back? If the person asks why you need to speak to the listed person or if they ask to participate instead, explain: For statistical purposes, at this time the survey must only be completed by this particular individual. Section 2: Quality of Life & City Services I’d like to begin by asking you a few questions about what it is like to live in Arroyo Grande. Q1 How long have you lived in Arroyo Grande? 1 Less than 1 year 2% 2 1 to 4 years 18% 3 5 to 9 years 20% 4 10 to 14 years 13% 5 15 years or longer 47% 99 Prefer not to answer 0% Q2 How would you rate the overall quality of life in Arroyo Grande? Would you say it is excellent, good, fair, poor or very poor? 1 Excellent 40% 2 Good 49% 3 Fair 8% 4 Poor 1% 5 Very poor 1% 98 Not sure 0% 99 Prefer not to answer 0% Page 272 of 282 Questionnaire & ToplinesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 33City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . City of Arroyo Grande Baseline Survey December 2023 True North Research, Inc. © 2023 Page 2 Q3 If the city government could change one thing to make Arroyo Grande a better place to live now and in the future, what change would you like to see? Verbatim responses recorded and later grouped into categories shown below. Improve infrastructure, roads 16% Not sure / Cannot think of anything specific 14% No changes needed / Everything is fine 9% Address homeless issues 8% Reduce traffic congestion 6% Provide more affordable housing 5% Provide more sidewalks 5% Provide more bike, walking trails 5% Clean up, beautify City 3% Provide rec activities, events 3% Reduce cost of living 3% Increase public safety 2% Improve parks, rec facilities 2% Improve schools, education 2% Reduce taxes, fees 2% Improve economy, jobs 2% Provide more police presence 2% Improve shopping, dining opportunities 2% Improve City-resident communication 2% Improve City Council, Gov process 2% Limit growth, development 2% Address parking issues 2% Support small, local businesses 2% Improve, redo Brisco interchange 2% Improve spending, budgeting 2% Address water issues 2% Improve downtown 2% Page 273 of 282 Questionnaire & ToplinesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 34City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . City of Arroyo Grande Baseline Survey December 2023 True North Research, Inc. © 2023 Page 3 Q4 Generally speaking, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the job the City of Arroyo Grande is doing to provide city services? Get answer, then ask: Would that be very (satisfied/dissatisfied) or somewhat (satisfied/dissatisfied)? 1 Very satisfied 31% 2 Somewhat satisfied 49% 3 Somewhat dissatisfied 11% 4 Very dissatisfied 4% 98 Not sure 5% 99 Prefer not to answer 0% Section 3: Initial Ballot Test Next year, voters in Arroyo Grande may be asked to vote on a local ballot measure. Let me read you a summary of the measure. Q5 To provide funding for city services in Arroyo Grande, such as: o Keeping streets, sidewalks, infrastructure, parks, and community facilities safe, clean, and well-maintained o Fixing potholes o Providing fire protection, paramedic, police, and 9-1-1 emergency services o And addressing homelessness Shall City of Arroyo Grande’s ordinance establishing a one-cent sales tax be adopted, providing 6 million dollars annually for general government use for 10 years that can’t be taken away by the State, with citizen oversight, independent audits, and all money locally controlled? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? Get answer, then ask: Would that be definitely (yes/no) or probably (yes/no)? 1 Definitely yes 35% Skip to Q7 2 Probably yes 31% Skip to Q7 3 Probably no 13% Ask Q6 4 Definitely no 16% Ask Q6 98 Not sure 6% Ask Q6 99 Prefer not to answer 0% Skip to Q7 Q6 Is there a particular reason why you do not support or are unsure about the measure I just described? If yes, ask: Please briefly describe your reason. Verbatim responses recorded and later grouped into categories shown below. Taxes already too high 44% Money is misspent, mismanaged 37% Need more information 16% Do not trust City 6% Other ways to be funded 3% Measure is too expensive 3% Page 274 of 282 Questionnaire & ToplinesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 35City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . City of Arroyo Grande Baseline Survey December 2023 True North Research, Inc. © 2023 Page 4 Money will go to employee salaries, pensions 3% City has enough money 2% Other higher priorities in community 2% Not sure / No particular reason 2% City services are okay as-is, no need for more money 1% Mentioned past ballot measure 1% It will hurt business economy 1% Section 4: Projects & Services Q7 The measure we’ve been discussing will provide funding for a variety of services in your community. If the measure passes, would you favor or oppose using some of the money to: _____, or do you not have an opinion? Get answer, if favor or oppose, then ask: Would that be strongly (favor/oppose) or somewhat (favor/oppose)? Randomize Strongly favor Somewhat favor Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Not sure Prefer not to answer A Fix potholes 62% 24% 4% 2% 2% 5% B Pave and maintain local streets 63% 23% 4% 2% 3% 4% C Repair infrastructure including sidewalks, curbs, and storm drains 64% 23% 3% 3% 3% 4% D Keep parks, recreation facilities, community centers, and public facilities safe, clean, and well-maintained 58% 28% 4% 2% 3% 4% E Provide fire protection and paramedic services 57% 28% 4% 3% 3% 4% F Provide quick responses to 9-1-1 emergencies 59% 23% 5% 4% 5% 4% G Provide police services, including crime prevention and investigation 48% 28% 9% 7% 4% 5% H Address homelessness 49% 25% 7% 9% 6% 5% I Remove graffiti 34% 37% 11% 6% 7% 5% J Clean up piles of trash and litter that people dump along streets, sidewalks, and in public areas 48% 32% 7% 4% 4% 4% Page 275 of 282 Questionnaire & ToplinesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 36City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . City of Arroyo Grande Baseline Survey December 2023 True North Research, Inc. © 2023 Page 5 Section 5: Positive Arguments What I’d like to do now is tell you what some people are saying about the measure we’ve been discussing. Q8 Supporters of the measure say: _____. Do you think this is a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not at all convincing reason to SUPPORT the measure? Randomize Very convincing Somewhat convincing Not at all convincing Don’ t believe Not sure Prefer not to answer A All money raised by the measure will be used to fund essential services and facilities here in Arroyo Grande. By law, it can’t be taken away by the State. 49% 24% 13% 9% 3% 3% B The measure includes a clear system of accountability including citizen oversight, independent audits, and public disclosure of how all funds are spent. 38% 28% 16% 10% 4% 3% C By keeping our city safe, clean, and well- maintained, this measure will help protect our quality of life and keep Arroyo Grande a special place to live. 39% 32% 18% 5% 3% 3% D A substantial amount of the money raised by the sales tax will come from people who visit our community, but don’t live here. This measure will make sure they pay their fair share for the facilities and services they use while in our city. 42% 25% 17% 10% 3% 3% E The City maintains 73 miles of streets in Arroyo Grande. The funding raised by this measure will allow the City to fix potholes and keep up with basic repairs and maintenance to streets, sidewalks, underground storm drains and pipes, and public facilities. If we don’t take care of it now, it will be a lot more expensive to repair in the future. 48% 29% 11% 7% 2% 3% F Most of the sales tax generated locally goes to the State of California. This measure ensures that a higher percentage of our sales tax dollars stay here in Arroyo Grande and we have local control over how those funds are spent. 45% 26% 14% 7% 4% 4% G This measure costs just one dollar for every 100 dollars purchased – and groceries, medicine, and many other essential items are excluded from the tax. 32% 33% 21% 8% 3% 3% Page 276 of 282 Questionnaire & ToplinesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 37City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . City of Arroyo Grande Baseline Survey December 2023 True North Research, Inc. © 2023 Page 6 H Fast emergency response times for 9-1-1 calls are critical for saving lives. This measure will ensure that we have enough police officers, firefighters, dispatchers, and paramedics to respond quickly to 9-1-1 emergencies. 42% 29% 17% 6% 3% 3% I High quality parks, open spaces, sports fields, and recreation programs help keep kids healthy, active, and away from drugs, gangs and crime. 39% 31% 19% 6% 2% 3% Section 6: Interim Ballot Test Sometimes people change their mind about a measure once they have more information about it. Now that you have heard a bit more about the measure, let me read you a summary of it again. Q9 To provide funding for city services in Arroyo Grande, such as: o Keeping streets, sidewalks, infrastructure, parks, and community facilities safe, clean, and well-maintained o Fixing potholes o Providing fire protection, paramedic, police, and 9-1-1 emergency services o And addressing homelessness Shall City of Arroyo Grande’s ordinance establishing a one-cent sales tax be adopted, providing 6 million dollars annually for general government use for 10 years that can’t be taken away by the State, with citizen oversight, independent audits, and all money locally controlled? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? Get answer, then ask: Would that be definitely (yes/no) or probably (yes/no)? 1 Definitely yes 40% 2 Probably yes 28% 3 Probably no 11% 4 Definitely no 16% 98 Not sure 6% 99 Prefer not to answer 1% Page 277 of 282 Questionnaire & ToplinesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 38City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . City of Arroyo Grande Baseline Survey December 2023 True North Research, Inc. © 2023 Page 7 Section 7: Negative Arguments Next, let me tell you what opponents of the measure are saying. Q10 Opponents of the measure say: _____. Do you think this is a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not at all convincing reason to OPPOSE the measure? Randomize. Split Sample D1/D2. Very convincing Somewhat convincing Not at all convincing Don’ t believe Not sure Prefer not to answer A Local businesses and residents were hit hard by the pandemic and are now facing high gas prices and runaway inflation. Many are struggling to stay afloat. Now is not the time to raise taxes. 35% 30% 22% 8% 2% 3% B Arroyo Grande is an expensive place to live, especially for young families, seniors, and those on fixed incomes. Passing this tax will make it even less affordable. 33% 30% 23% 8% 3% 3% C There are no guarantees on how funds will be spent, which means the City can divert the money to pet projects without any say from voters. We can’t trust the City with our tax dollars. 29% 28% 26% 11% 4% 3% D1 Residents are already paying too many taxes – including state and county taxes, school bonds, and other taxes. Enough is enough. We can’t afford to keep raising our taxes. 34% 26% 27% 7% 3% 3% D2 Everyone is coming after us for tax increases – including state and county taxes, school bonds, and other taxes that will be on the ballot next year. Enough is enough. We can’t afford to keep raising our taxes. 35% 29% 24% 8% 2% 3% E Raising the sales tax will hurt our local economy and the businesses in our community. 17% 23% 37% 17% 3% 3% Page 278 of 282 Questionnaire & ToplinesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 39City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . City of Arroyo Grande Baseline Survey December 2023 True North Research, Inc. © 2023 Page 8 Section 8: Final Ballot Test Now that you have heard a bit more about the measure, let me read you a summary of it one more time. Q11 To provide funding for city services in Arroyo Grande, such as: o Keeping streets, sidewalks, infrastructure, parks, and community facilities safe, clean, and well-maintained o Fixing potholes o Providing fire protection, paramedic, police, and 9-1-1 emergency services o And addressing homelessness Shall City of Arroyo Grande’s ordinance establishing a one-cent sales tax be adopted, providing 6 million dollars annually for general government use for 10 years that can’t be taken away by the State, with citizen oversight, independent audits, and all money locally controlled? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? Get answer, then ask: Would that be definitely (yes/no) or probably (yes/no)? 1 Definitely yes 35% Skip to Q13 2 Probably yes 24% Skip to Q13 3 Probably no 12% Ask Q12 4 Definitely no 18% Ask Q12 98 Not sure 9% Ask Q12 99 Prefer not to answer 1% Skip to Q13 Q12 What if the measure I just described raised the sales tax by a lower amount: one-half cent? Would you vote yes or no on the measure? Get answer, then ask: Would that be definitely (yes/no) or probably (yes/no)? Def, prob yes @ 1 cent (Q11) 60% 1 Definitely yes 1% 2 Probably yes 7% 3 Probably no 10% 4 Definitely no 14% 98 Not sure 6% 99 Prefer not to answer 1% Page 279 of 282 Questionnaire & ToplinesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 40City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . City of Arroyo Grande Baseline Survey December 2023 True North Research, Inc. © 2023 Page 9 Section 9: Background & Demographics Thank you so much for your participation. I have just two background questions for statistical purposes. Q13 In your opinion, has the City of Arroyo Grande done an excellent, good, fair, poor or very poor job of managing its financial resources? 1 Excellent 6% 2 Good 32% 3 Fair 25% 4 Poor 8% 5 Very poor 5% 98 Not sure 23% 99 Prefer not to answer 1% Q14 Do you have children under the age of 18 living in your household? 1 Yes 27% 2 No 68% 99 Prefer not to answer 5% Those are all of the questions that I have for you. Thanks so much for participating in this important survey. Post-Interview & Sample Items S1 Gender 1 Male 50% 2 Female 49% 3 Non-binary 0% 99 Prefer not to answer 1% S2 Party 1 Democrat 38% 2 Republican 32% 3 Other 8% 4 DTS 22% Page 280 of 282 Questionnaire & ToplinesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 41City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . City of Arroyo Grande Baseline Survey December 2023 True North Research, Inc. © 2023 Page 10 S3 Age on Voter File 1 18 to 29 13% 2 30 to 39 13% 3 40 to 49 14% 4 50 to 64 22% 5 65 or older 38% S4 Registration Date 1 Since Nov 2018 16% 2 Jun 2012 to before Nov 2018 14% 3 Jun 2006 to before Jun 2012 9% 4 Before June 2006 60% S5 Household Party Type 1 Single Dem 16% 2 Dual Dem 11% 3 Single Rep 12% 4 Dual Rep 14% 5 Single Other 11% 6 Dual Other 6% 7 Dem & Rep 6% 8 Dem & Other 13% 9 Rep & Other 9% 0 Mixed (Dem + Rep + Other) 1% S6 Homeowner on Voter File 1 Yes 66% 2 No 34% S7 Likely to Vote by Mail 1 Yes 81% 2 No 19% Page 281 of 282 Questionnaire & ToplinesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2023 42City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . City of Arroyo Grande Baseline Survey December 2023 True North Research, Inc. © 2023 Page 11 S8 Likely March 2024 Voter 1 Yes 77% 2 No 23% S9 Likely November 2024 Voter 1 Yes 100% 2 No 0% S10 Council District One 29% Two 27% Three 22% Four 22% Page 282 of 282