CC 2024-01-09 Voter Opinion Polling_PPRevenue Measure Feasibility Study
Conducted for the
City of Arroyo Grande
Presented By
Timothy McLarney Ph.D.
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Determine if a local sales tax measure is feasible
Identify how to create a measure consistent with community priorities
Gather information needed for communications & outreach
Purpose of Study
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How did we select voters to survey?
Stratified & Clustered Random Sample of likely November 2024 voters using age, gender, partisanship, household party type, and sub-geographies
Ensures balanced, representative sample of likely voters
How did we recruit participation?
Personalized email, text, and telephone calls
PINs to restrict access and ensure one complete per respondent
How were voters able to share their opinions?
Secure, PIN-protected website that scales to the device
Telephone (land line or mobile)
What was the sample size?
487 completed interviews
Overall margin of error of ± 4.4% @ 95% level of confidence
Methodology of Study
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Quality of life
Q2 How would you rate the overall quality of life in Arroyo Grande? Would you say it is excellent, good, fair, poor or very poor?
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changes TO IMPROVE CITY
Q3 If the city government could change one thing to make Arroyo Grande a better place to live now and in the future, what change would you like to see?
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Overall satisfaction
Q4 Generally speaking, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the job the City of Arroyo Grande is doing to provide city services?
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Initial ballot test
To provide funding for city services in Arroyo Grande, such as:
Keeping streets, sidewalks, infrastructure, parks, and community facilities safe, clean, and well-maintained
Fixing potholes
Providing fire protection, paramedic, police, and 9-1-1 emergency services
And addressing homelessness
Shall City of Arroyo Grande’s ordinance establishing a one-cent sales tax be adopted, providing 6 million dollars annually for general government use for 10 years that can’t be taken
away by the State, with citizen oversight, independent audits, and all money locally controlled? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure?
Q5 Next year, voters in Arroyo Grande may be asked to vote on a local ballot measure. Let me read you a summary of the measure:
To provide funding for city services in Arroyo Grande, such as:
o Keeping streets, sidewalks, infrastructure, parks, and community facilities safe, clean, and well-maintained
o Fixing potholes
o Providing fire protection, paramedic, police, and 9-1-1 emergency services
o And addressing homelessness
Shall City of Arroyo Grande’s ordinance establishing a one-cent sales tax be adopted, providing 6 million dollars annually for general government use for 10 years that can’t be taken
away by the State, with citizen oversight, independent audits, and all money locally controlled?
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure?
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Initial ballot test
Q5 Next year, voters in Arroyo Grande may be asked to vote on a local ballot measure. Let me read you a summary of the measure:
To provide funding for city services in Arroyo Grande, such as:
o Keeping streets, sidewalks, infrastructure, parks, and community facilities safe, clean, and well-maintained
o Fixing potholes
o Providing fire protection, paramedic, police, and 9-1-1 emergency services
o And addressing homelessness
Shall City of Arroyo Grande’s ordinance establishing a one-cent sales tax be adopted, providing 6 million dollars annually for general government use for 10 years that can’t be taken
away by the State, with citizen oversight, independent audits, and all money locally controlled?
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure?
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PROJECTS & services
Q7 The measure we’ve been discussing will provide funding for a variety of services in your community.
If the measure passes, would you favor or oppose using some of the money to: _____, or do you not have an opinion?
C Repair infrastructure including sidewalks, curbs, and storm drains
A Fix potholes
B Pave and maintain local streets
D Keep parks, recreation facilities, community centers, and public facilities safe, clean, and well-maintained
E Provide fire protection and paramedic services
F Provide quick responses to 9-1-1 emergencies
J Clean up piles of trash and litter that people dump along streets, sidewalks, and in public areas
G Provide police services, including crime prevention and investigation
H Address homelessness
I Remove graffiti
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positive arguments
Q8 What I’d like to do now is tell you what some people are saying about the measure we’ve been discussing. Supporters of the measure say: _____. Do you think this is a very convincing,
somewhat convincing, or not at all convincing reason to SUPPORT the measure?
E The City maintains 73 miles of streets in Arroyo Grande. The funding raised by this measure will allow the City to fix potholes and keep up with basic repairs and maintenance to streets,
sidewalks, underground storm drains and pipes, and public facilities. If we don't take care of it now, it will be a lot more expensive to repair in the future.
A All money raised by the measure will be used to fund essential services and facilities here in Arroyo Grande. By law, it can't be taken away by the State.
F Most of the sales tax generated locally goes to the State of California. This measure ensures that a higher percentage of our sales tax dollars stay here in Arroyo Grande and we have
local control over how those funds are spent.
C By keeping our city safe, clean, and well-maintained, this measure will help protect our quality of life and keep Arroyo Grande a special place to live.
H Fast emergency response times for 9-1-1 calls are critical for saving lives. This measure will ensure that we have enough police officers, firefighters, dispatchers, and paramedics
to respond quickly to 9-1-1 emergencies.
I High quality parks, open spaces, sports fields, and recreation programs help keep kids healthy, active, and away from drugs, gangs and crime.
D A substantial amount of the money raised by the sales tax will come from people who visit our community, but don't live here. This measure will make sure they pay their fair share
for the facilities and services they use while in our city.
B The measure includes a clear system of accountability including citizen oversight, independent audits, and public disclosure of how all funds are spent.
G This measure costs just one dollar for every 100 dollars purchased - and groceries, medicine, and many other essential items are excluded from the tax.
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INTERIM BALLOT TEST
Q9 Sometimes people change their mind about a measure once they have more information about it. Now that you have heard a bit more about the measure, let me read you a summary of it
again:
To provide funding for city services in Arroyo Grande, such as:
o Keeping streets, sidewalks, infrastructure, parks, and community facilities safe, clean, and well-maintained
o Fixing potholes
o Providing fire protection, paramedic, police, and 9-1-1 emergency services
o And addressing homelessness
Shall City of Arroyo Grande’s ordinance establishing a one-cent sales tax be adopted, providing 6 million dollars annually for general government use for 10 years that can’t be taken
away by the State, with citizen oversight, independent audits, and all money locally controlled?
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure?
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NEGATIVE ARGUMENTS
Q10 Next, let me tell you what opponents of the measure are saying. Opponents of the measure say: _____. Do you think this is a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not at all convincing
reason to OPPOSE the measure?
A Local businesses and residents were hit hard by the pandemic and are now facing high gas prices and runaway inflation. Many are struggling to stay afloat. Now is not the time to raise
taxes.
D2 Everyone is coming after us for tax increases - including state and county taxes, school bonds, and other taxes that will be on the ballot next year. Enough is enough. We can't afford
to keep raising our taxes.
B Arroyo Grande is an expensive place to live, especially for young families, seniors, and those on fixed incomes. Passing this tax will make it even less affordable.
D1 Residents are already paying too many taxes - including state and county taxes, school bonds, and other taxes. Enough is enough. We can't afford to keep raising our taxes.
C There are no guarantees on how funds will be spent, which means the City can divert the money to pet projects without any say from voters. We can't trust the City with our tax dollars.
E Raising the sales tax will hurt our local economy and the businesses in our community.
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Final ballot test
Q11 Now that you have heard a bit more about the measure, let me read you a summary of it one more time:
To provide funding for city services in Arroyo Grande, such as:
o Keeping streets, sidewalks, infrastructure, parks, and community facilities safe, clean, and well-maintained
o Fixing potholes
o Providing fire protection, paramedic, police, and 9-1-1 emergency services
o And addressing homelessness
Shall City of Arroyo Grande’s ordinance establishing a one-cent sales tax be adopted, providing 6 million dollars annually for general government use for 10 years that can’t be taken
away by the State, with citizen oversight, independent audits, and all money locally controlled?
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure?
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Final Ballot Test at ½ Cent Rate
Q12 What if the measure I just described raised the sales tax by a lower amount: one-half cent? Would you vote yes or no on the measure?
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Key conclusions
Does a local sales tax measure appear to be feasible for November 2024? Yes.
Positive Signs
Voters value the quality of life in Arroyo Grande and the services they receive from the City, but also see room for improvement
Strong natural support for measure to fund city services (65%)
Popular projects and services
Positive arguments resonate
All ballot tests are well above the simple majority (50%+1) required for passage of general tax, even after opposition arguments
Challenges
Receptiveness to potential opposition arguments (-8%)
Electoral climate: Hyper-partisanship & statewide initiatives
Unknowns
Trajectory of economy, inflation, other measures
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Snapshot in time, not a crystal ball
Service Priorities: Street and infrastructure repair/maintenance, maintenance/protection of parks, recreation, and community facilities, fire/EMS, police, 911 response, addressing homelessness.
City Communications: Begin a conversation with the community to build awareness of ongoing needs and consensus on a proposal.
Independent Campaign: Need to have solid independent campaign to navigate through the election cycle, communicate key messages, turn out supporters, and weather uncertainties.
Observations & Recommendations
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