CC 2015-09-22_08e Water Supply_Demand_Marketing UpdateMEMORANDUM
TO: CITY COUNCIL
FROM: GEOFF ENGLISH, DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC WORKS
BY: SHANE TAYLOR, PUBLIC WORKS SUPERVISOR -UTILITIES
SUBJECT: MONTHLY WATER SUPPLY, DEMAND AND MARKETING UPDATE
DATE: SEPTEMBER 22, 2015
RECOMMENDATION:
It is recommended the City Council receive and review the monthly Water Supply,
Demand and Marketing Update Report.
IMPACT ON FINANCIAL AND PERSONNEL RESOURCES:
The cost to provide the report is approximately $500.
BACKGROUND:
The severe drought continues to impact the City's water supply and demand. As a
result, the City Council declared a Stage 1 Water Shortage Emergency on May 26,
2015. This monthly update on the cu'rrent supply and demand statistics will provide the
Council with the data required to make decisions related to Emergency Water Shortage
Restrictions and Regulations. In addition, a marketing update is included to inform the
Council on the thinkh2o campaign.
ANALYSIS OF ISSUES:
The severe drought continues, however a new rainfall year began in July and we
received 1.4" of rain. Lopez Lake is currently at 33% capacity. The Low Reservoir
Level Response Plan (LRRP) has been enacted.
At the Zone 3 Advisory Board meeting on May 21, 2015, the Board recommended that
the deliveries from the Water Treatment Plant be reduced by 10% starting April 1, 2015.
This is in advance of the Lake reaching 15,000 AF of storage, which is the automatic
reduction trigger.
In August the City's water use was 36% below August 2013. The reduction requirement
imposed by the State Water Resources Control Board for Arroyo Grande is 28%.
Item 8.e. - Page 1
CITY COUNCIL
MONTHLY WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND UPDATE
SEPTEMBER 22, 2015
PAGE2
Based on current use and weather patterns, Lopez Lake is predicted to reach the
15,000 AF storage level in October 2015 unless the current weather pattern changes.
The Lopez supply for water year 2015/16 for Arroyo Grande is 2,942 AF, which includes
883 AF of carry-over water. Based on the projected water demand of 2,300 AF, we
expect to be able to meet the demand in water year 2015/16 with minimal groundwater
pumping.
ADVANTAGES:
No advantages noted at this time.
DISADVANTAGES:
No disadvantages noted at this time.
ALTERNATIVES:
Not applicable at this time.
ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW:
No environmental review is required for this item.
PUBLIC NOTIFICATION AND COMMENTS:
The Agenda was posted in front of City Hall on Thursday, September 17, 2015. The
Agenda and staff report were posted on the City's website on Friday, September 18,
2015.
Attachments:
1. August 2015 Water Supply and Demand Charts
2. Lopez Reservoir Storage Projections
3. Thinkh2o Report
Item 8.e. - Page 2
City of Arroyo Grande Water Supply and Demand Update-August 2015
Rainfall
Cumulative Rainfall from July 1, 2015 to August 31st: 1.4 inches
Cumulative Rainfall
35 0
300
...,. 25 0
~ 200
~ 15.0
&! 10 0
··············
······
.· .•
········· .. ··
50
00
······· /. .... ;.-.·,.. ........ -... ···_ ~-..... ----........... ~------·-~-------------~-'--===-=··---···
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
=Average Ramlall Year {1995-1996)
-• •Driest Rainfall Year (2013-2014)
•••••• Wettest Rainfall Year (1997-1998)
--2015-2016 Ramlall as of August 31, 2015
Note Prec1pttat1on data from AG Corp Yard Station No 177 1 from July 1966-August 31, 2015
Water Demand
Total Cit]! Demond (AF!
August 2013
August 2015
% Difference from 2013
WY 2013/14 YTD
WY 2015/16 YTD
% Difference from WY 2013/14
Predicted Supply and Demand
WY 2015/16 Predicted Supply and Demand
5,000
4,000
3,000
"-<
2,000
1,000
308.6
197.6
-36%
1,498.7
1,016.8
-32%
El Lopez Entitlement (-10%) ~Lopez Surplus D SMGB Groundwater Allocat1on
m Pismo Formation Groundwater SWY 2015/16Target Demand
Note The Water Year (WY) for water demand Is from Apnl to March
Water Supply
LopezLoke
I Remmmng_ Allocated
Aug_ust 2015 WY 15{_16 Year to Date ~
Lake Elevation (full at 522.37 ft) 472.39
Storage (full at 49,200 AF) 16,314 4
Storage -Percent Full 33%
Status Enacted
Current Entitlement Reduction 10%
Deliveries (AF) 197.18 959.44 I 1,982.71
Note The Water Year (WY} for Lopez lake Is from April to March The actual amount of storage In Lopez atthe end of August 2015was16,380 AF,
however, the storage amount and storage percentage above were adjusted to account for the 65 57 AF of stored State Water Project water m the lake
Groundwater
Aug_ust 2015 Calendar Year to Date Remaining_ Entitlement
SMGB Production (AF) 0.4 33.1
Pismo Formation Production (AF) 0.0 44.0 NA
City SMGB average well levels for August 2015 were 0.62 feet higher than in August 2014.
Note Groundwater entitlement and production data Is based on the calendar year.
350
300
~250
E
:g_200 a ~150 ~ .,
2: 100
Qi
0 so
0 -
Water Supply, Demand and Delivery Chart
,------~ ---..
~~ !'! "?:
~ ~
B I ~ :....
-~ ~-· ---~~ -~~
=Lopez Water Available (AF)
=Lopez Water Delivery
-SMGB Water Pumped (AF)
.......
... .....
-~· ,_
-.. Predicted Pismo Formation Production
---Average Demand 2011-2013 (AF)
.. _
lo!;
~-
--
I
~~
, .... ---... ---, ,
, .. , + ---• It-+ ~ i ~ i I
~·
I r. ..
~
, __ "' ...... _ --~-. ~--~
i;::m Groundwater Allotment Available
m= P1Smo Formation Water Pumped (AF)
-Predicted Lopez Water Delivery
UDlllD Predicted 5MGB Production
1,289.9
6,000
5,000
LL" s.
4,000 ~
c:
3,ooo·~ .,
0::
2,000~
1,000
0
a.
" Vl
Note These production forecasts contain preliminary estimates of water production and draft predictions of future production based on historical
averages
)>
-i
-i
)>
(")
:::c s: m z
-i
Updated: 9/10/2015 _.,
Item 8.e. - Page 3
25,000
22,500
20,000
Li:'
~
Q) 17,500 Cl ca ..
0 -"'
15,000
12,500
.to,ooo
15,000AF
-Actual Storage (AF}
--• ProJectea Storage (AF)
Lopez Reservoir Storage Projections
(precipitation scenario source: www.LongRangeWeather.com)
,.
'
r .,
i t ! I
Revs1ed. 9/1/2015
I •! ! ! ; .
I ! • t ~ • i 1 ! . ! ~ l,
: I 1 ~ i '1 i ! i ·: : : ; i · 11 • . . • . ' , . I ,.._ " l!lo ' ' " ! ' ·--i-····--r·-··--1----·-·-·-· .. 1---·-··1··-····-·r····-··1-·-·' 1 ..... ~.--,r,1 '·-~~-f ,· '~'~""'!·~·;l·---···11······--r-··--·
j I I I I 1. l : ... . 1 ....... : • ' ,, ~-----:--------------I : ~ t ! i ! ~I ~: .. ' ·~ : ...... _ 01 I :, Prec.p1tabon Proiect1on Qn)
i : l ! · i , J I r · ! 1 ·~ : ... , I .: r
' I I i '1 11 I : ·, l l I ! : ...... : ) I ...... -: I . i I • > ! • .... . I . : : l ... l ... ' .:.~·~---;.:. ---·-.. ~ r··--J·----·~-----·)-··-··-·-J-------~----i-. ____ L ____ j _______ ~i------+--· _L __ -~ -~-'---~-~·-----i-~· ---~-~----l--~-~----_:':_~-·--~-~~ ------.
. 1'. I ! l ! l I ! l ' I ! I l I ! ; ! I : % . I . : : ~ !'Iii. ! I ! l . ~ l 1\
·.1 l I : I I ... ! I 1 • t ! I
• • • I ,,_ ~ I / ! ; ! ! I 3As · 3.46 ! : j
' I ! • l I • ! '1 l ! f 3,23' ! •J . . .• ' ' ! 1-' . 1 • • ' ' \ 1 1 (1 1 • I • ~ ~, ' I • • j I r ~-.,.-.,.-..,-~•••••••-,.~,...,.__,.+ ....... ,.....,_.{. ........ ,.-l ....... --.... !,...,_..-_. .. _:...-,.-;,....-: _..,...,J .. -=---._-.:__t----.4---=::--~t..-=--~-=~:, .. --=~ ~--~• -=-•~-"':: .. -••~•-•-.J••-•--•:~----••--=,-•--••J.----~;,.,_,.. ....... _ .. I ( i j I ,. ~· ~ • l :' ; i~ I ! t ! ! , \ ! lj
l. 1'' l' I '1.6.~56 l .... i I ! I i i i ·l . ?"Gi. . • ..._ t I . . . I l , ·-.--..,: '9-; ·! I ! ! ' t' ~ I .... .... 1 ~.? ... 2 ; : ; : I
I i . i I" i : ! i l -~ 2.31 :: I ·: ! I
j ~ ! ! J : f ~ i I l _ •••• · ~ L l : 'i i i ! I.···· ·t· • • • • ·: • • • • • • •• • • • ~ • • • • • • • • • · • • .• • • • • • ~ •·• • • • • • • • • • • •• • • • • • ~ ••• • • ·~· ·-· • • • ••• • • • • ...... • • .... : • • • • • ~ • .... • ••.•• • • • • r • • • • ··~ • • • • • • ~ • • • • • r • ... • • · • • ! • · !' · ' · l ' I • • ' I
II ' ! ~ :l i I : ·1' • l ! ; l i : ; ! : ! . : ! I ] ! I ~
I ' I o1 I I 153 -I I I f I I ' I I " • I • I I l • '· I • I :· t , i . ; l • . ~ 1 • ~ 1 • r
l : i 1 :· ! ~ ! i : : I i ~ ! I
·---r---.. -~-.... -.-.. ,---.--r---r·--.,-·.,.·t-·-·7 +--·---r-.. -.... ..... ";t"--·~--1----.. --... ~ ·-"'"' ------I ~--------~t:---~-";1------t-----__..~-----f--~-1·-----
I : I I ! l : i : '
I I I I l l '. .. ; ' ~· 1.13' ' ; l ; I
• I • ' I , I I I I J ' ' ; : I ;
I
: n 0.56 ,n: 0 41 i i j : n 0,56
h o,
29
I I . L o,oo_ L ·o.o3'L_Q~,...,,h_0_·2_9_,I_ I _ _..
;:!: ll'l ll'l ll'l ll'l ll'l "' ll'l ll'l ll'l ll'l "' ll'l CD CD ~ ~ ~ ...-a a a ...-..... ...-...-a a a a a a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 "' "' "' "' "' "' "' "' C\I "' C\I "!_ C\I N N "' N "' .,: ,..: ,..: ,..: ,..: .... -,..: ,..: ,..: ,..: ,..: ,..: ,..: ~ ,..: ,..: ,..:
g c .a t;; a >. c: "5 "' Q. u ~ g c: .a t;; c. >. m Ql :a <( ~ ::J .., ::J OJ 0 m i'f. :; <( m c .., IL .., <( (f) z Cl .., :a
Notes.
• For "Dry Months", projected increases and/or decreases in storage estimated to mimic 2013 conditions.
•For 'Wet Months", projected storage declines assume annual downstream release of 4,200 AFY and deliveries of 4,530 AFY.
• For 'Wet Months, projected storage increases based on historic trends from actual storm data for the period of 12/1993 through 6/2011,
• Storage projection for 'Wet Months" assume that unsaturated conditions exist.
• Monthly rainfall projections assumed to occur during the first week of each month
•Rainfall proiection provided by www.LongRangeWeather.com, and updated 5/6/2015.
•State Water stored is 907.10 AF.
• Evaporation included in storage projection.
G:\Utilities\Zone 3\Advisory Committee\Reservoir Chart Info
ID CD CD CD «l CD ..... a ..... a 0 0 0 0
"' "' "' C\I C\I "' ,..: ,..: ,..: ,..: .,: ,..:
c "5 C> Q. u ~ ::J .., ::J OJ 0 .., <( en z
6.0
5.0
4.0
3,0
1 0
o.o
c
0 ;:; ca ..., ·c. ·c::;
~ a.
~ .c -c
0
:2:
)>
-i
-i
)>
(')
:c s m z
-i
""
Item 8.e. - Page 4
r--r---'
IL
I -'
1'
I' L'-::-_:-:
ATTACHMENT 3
r;=::-~ ~\ I' ' JI \ I j I (' I I ·-::-::'.· l i l
11 I I/ Ii \ ,I I :I ':-::--:.!
Arroyo Grande/Pismo Beach Water Conservation
MARKETING SUMMARY -AUGUST 2015
SUBMITTED -9/11/15
Website
Website traffic continues to grow with over 4,000 page views in August and almost 20,000 page views since
the website launched in March. In August, 63% of web traffic was from new visitors, meaning that new
people are viewing the site but it also shows that a significant number of people are returning to the site.
The top performing pages are still the homepage and rebates pages but traffic to the conservation tips
pages jumped significantly due to the switch in advertising that occurred in mid-late July. Almost half of
the web traffic is referred from Facebook. Blogs are continuing to be added monthly to the website in order
to increase engagement and search engine optimization.
Social Media
Facebook continues to attract new users with 66 new fans in July and more than 558 fans overall. Reach
remains very high despite the small demographic of the community targeted and engagement rate remains
above average as well. Engagement also jumped significantly in August, with more people interacting and
sharing the content from the page.
Twitter is still growing and increased in new followers by 60% from July, with more being added from the
local press and governmental agencies. The account has also been gaining traction on a state-level and is
being followed and retweeted by well-known Water Conservation accounts such as Water Use it Wisely (with
9168 followers), CA Waterkeepers (with 11.4k followers), the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission
(with 11.4k followers) and Clean Water Wednesday (with 109k followers). The high number of followers
these organizations have mean that not only are the messages getting out to an exponentially higher
number of people but they are also giving the brand further credibility.
Advertising
Digital Advertising is consistently bringing in engagement numbers that are much higher than the national
average. The Pandora schedule ended in August and the last month declined slightly in clicks, as is
expected because Pandora "front loads" schedules, meaning more ads are served at the beginning of the
contract then at the end. 350 clicks to the website in the month of August. Facebook is performing very
well, with a significant increase (3072 clicks in August, vs 1362 clicks in July, an increase of 126%) in
response and engagement. Digital Banner ads remain a steady source of impressions and engagements. The
Regal Cinema ad runs 40x daily across all screens and August's estimated attendance was over 35,000.
Public Relations
Press Releases were distributed to the local media about the significant conservation numbers the two
achieved during the months of June and July. Local media including KSBY, The Tribune and KCBX ran the
story and KCOY/KKFX/KEYT expressed interest in creating a larger segment once the August numbers were
made available.
verdin*
a vision for your brand
3580 Sacramento Dr. #110, San Luis Obispo, CA 93401 t 805/541/9005 f 805/541/9007
verdinmarketing.com
Item 8.e. - Page 5
Jn)
IL./.!
I\(
: ! \ \ u \),
Business and Community Outreach
Material and presentations have been finalized for each City and presentations are currently being arranged
with the Chambers of Commerce and service clubs.
Overall, the marketing efforts are continuing to be successful as shown by the growing numbers of engaged
users on the website, social media and digital adyertising, as well as the amount of people utilizing the
cities rebates and other water conservation programs. This has all helped lead to a substantial decrease in
water-consumption by residents of both Arroyo Grande and Pismo Beach that exceeds the state mandated
conservation numbers for each city.
verdin* 3580 Sacramento Dr. #110, San Luis Obispo, CA 93401 t 805/541/9005 f 805/541/9007
verdinmarketing.com a vis10n for your brand
Item 8.e. - Page 6