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CC 2015-11-24_09h Monthly Water Supply and Demand Update_10_2015MEMORANDUM TO: CITY COUNCIL FROM: GEOFF ENGLISH, DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC WORKS BY: SHANE TAYLOR, PUBLIC WORKS SUPERVISOR -UTILITIES SUBJECT: MONTHLY WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND UPDATE DATE: NOVEMBER 24, 2015 RECOMMENDATION: It is recommended the City Council receive and review the monthly Water Supply and Demand Report. IMPACT ON FINANCIAL AND PERSONNEL RESOURCES: The cost to provide the report is limited to staff time, which equates to approximately $500. BACKGROUND: The severe drought continues to impact the City's water supply and demand. As a result, the City Council declared a Stage 1 Water Shortage Emergency on May 26, 2015. This monthly update on the current supply and demand statistics will provide the Council with the data required to make decisions related to Emergency Water Shortage Restrictions and Regulations. ANALYSIS OF ISSUES: The severe drought continues, however a new rainfall year began in July and we have received 2.35" of rain. Lopez Lake is currently at 30% capacity (14,893 AF of storage). The Low Reservoir Level Response Plan (LRRP) has been enacted. At the Zone 3 Advisory Board meeting on May 21, 2015, the Board recommended that the deliveries from the Water Treatment Plant be reduced by 10% starting April 1, 2015. This is in advance of the Lake reaching 15,000 AF of storage, which is the automatic reduction trigger. In October the City's water use was 32% below October 2013. The reduction requirement imposed by the State Water Resources Control Board for Arroyo Grande is 28%. Item 9.h. - Page 1 CITY COUNCIL MONTHLY WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND UPDATE NOVEMBER 24, 2015 PAGE2 Based on current use and weather patterns, Lopez Lake, as predicted, reached the 15,000 AF storage level around November 1, 2015. The Lopez supply for water year 2015/16 for Arroyo Grande is 2,942 AF, which includes 883 AF of carry-over water. Based on the projected water demand of 2,300 AF, we expect to be able to meet the demand in water year 2015/16 with minimal groundwater pumping. ADVANTAGES: No advantages noted at this time. DISADVANTAGES: No disadvantages noted at this time. ALTERNATIVES: Not applicable at this time. ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW: No environmental review is required for this item. PUBLIC NOTIFICATION AND COMMENTS: The Agenda was posted in front of City Hall on Thursday, November 19, 2015. The Agenda and staff report were posted on the City's website on Friday, November 20, 2015. Attachments: 1. October 2015 Water Supply and Demand Charts 2. Lopez Reservoir Storage Projections 3. Zone 2 -Lopez Project -Monthly Operations Report 4. Reservoir Tanks and Lift Stations Map Item 9.h. - Page 2 City of Arroyo Grande Water Supply and Demand Update-October 2015 Rainfall Cumulative Rainfall from July l, 2015 ta October 31st: 2.4 Inches Cumulative Rainfall 350 30.0 ..,. 25.0 c ·············· =-200 ~ 150 &! 10 0 so 0.0 .·· .... ···· .. ·· ········ ... ....... /" L_-::======::.::.:.=::_.!!·~------------~· .-: .•. ·~ .~ :~.~-': ;,c • .,. JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR • • • • • • Wettest Rainfall Year (1997-1998) ... - ,. ..... ~- MAY JUN =Average Rainfall Year (1995·1996) -• •Driest Rainfall Year (2013-2014) --2015·2016 Ramlall as of October 31. 2015 Note Prec1p1tat1on data from AG Corp Yard Station No 1771 from July 1966 ·October 31, 2015 Water Demand Total CID! Demand £AF! October 2013 276.7 October 2015 188.7 % Difference from 2013 -32% WY 2013/14 YTD 2,064.4 WY 2015/16 YTD 1,402 4 % Difference from WY 2013/14 -32% Predicted Supply and Demand WY 2015/16 Predicted Supply and Demand 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 El Lopez Entltlement (-10%) El Lopez Surplus DSMGB Groundwater Allocation ID P1Smo Formation Groundwater ~WY 2015/16Target Demand Note: The Water Year (WY} for water demand Is from April to March Water Supply Lopez Lake· I Remaining_ Allocated Oct-15 WY 15Ll6 Year to Date ~ Lake Elevation (full at 522.37 ft) 468 68 Storage (full at 49,200 AF) 14,720.5 Storage -Percent Full 30% Status Enacted Current Entitlement Reduction 10% Deliveries (AF) 184.19 1,339.41 I 1,602.74 Note The Water Year (WY) for Lopez Lake 1sfrom April to March The actual amount of storage Jn Lopez at the end of October 2015was14,893 AF, however, the storage amount and storage percentage above were adjusted to account for the 172 46 AF of stored State Water Project water In the lake Groundwater Oct-15 Calendar Year to Date Remaming_ Entitlement SMGB Production (AF) 4.5 39.1 1,283.9 Pismo Formation Production (AF) 0.0 440 City SMGB average well levels for October 2015 were 0.5 feet higher than in October 2014. Note Groundwater entitlement and production data Is based on the calendar year Water Supply, Demand and Delivery Chart 350 300 ~250 ;:;- ,---..... ... .... ---..... [200 .. u "ID 1so ·;: ~ 100 QJ c so 0 -t '<l" ..... .!. c. < - I :r: '<l" '<l" '<l" ..... ..... '-;' > C: ~ "' ~ :2:. -.. .... ~ , ...... ... ..... -~ ! '<l" '<l" ~ '<l" ..... ..... ..... .. 6. ti > ::J QJ a < Vl 0 z ,---, ,, ~ "' ;I;; tl t '<l" "' "' "' "' "' "' "' "' ..... '-;' ..... ..... ..... ..... '-;' '-;' ..... 0 c: J, .!. .!. > c: ~ .. QJ ~ QJ "' c. "' ~ ::J c u. :2: < :2: < NA .... ..... ... ... 1-H"' f ~ I'"' "' "' "' ..... ..... ..... 6. ti > QJ a Vl 0 z =Lopez Water Available (AF) Em Groundwater Allotment Available 6,000 5,000 ..:- <C 4,000~ ·;:: 3,000 ~ ., "" 2,000~ c. ::J "' 1,000 0 =Lopez Water Dellvel'( -Pismo Formation Water Pumped (AF) -SMGB Water Pumped (AF) ~Predicted Lopez Water Dellvel'( -Predicted Pismo Formation Production llillDD Predicted 5MGB Production ---Average Demand 2011-2013 {AF) Note. These production forecasts contain preliminary estimates of water production and draft predictions of future production based on historical averages Updated: 11/13/2015 ATTACHMENT 1 Item 9.h. - Page 3 ...... LL $ Cll C> ca ... .s (J) Lo p e z Re s e r v o i r St o r a g e Pr o j e c t i o n s (p r e c i p i t a t i o n sc e n a r i o so u r c e : w w w . L o n g R a n g e W e a t h e r . c o m ) Re v s i e d · 10 / 3 1 / 2 0 1 5 25,000. ' .,-. - I • • • ' . . . . -· - - ~ . ~ - - - : ~ . - - . • - .- - I -~.- - . - ! I ' '1 6 . 0 · t r- I •" • ! ' I " • . , ~ 1 ~ " ,. •• ~ .. 15;000AF ·1 ! i· 1i 1 i l I' j, It ! ! •! l J i I• ! t l 22,500 20,000 17,500 15,000 12,500 jo,ooo I' I ; ' ~ : .. • ~ I i I ' ! t : ! ·~ ~ l I l• : :, . ,, : : l i . . I 1. : 1 l l I· ...i.... Actual Stb r a g e (A F ) l I 1. I l l : ~ i · i · ' : l • l : f -t-• Projected St o r a g e (A F ) ! j' I ! j [ :· ! 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LI) :!! LI) "' "' "' ~ "' ~ ~ "' U ) <D <D <D ~ <D ~ ~ <D "' <D <D 0 0 ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ 0 ~ i5 Q ~ i5 0 a 0 a a 0 a a a 0 0 N N N N N "' N "' N "' "' "' "' "' "' N N "' ~ ..: ..: ~ .. : .. : .. : .. : ~ .. : .. : ~· ~- ~ .. : .. : .. : .. : .. : u c: .a ffi a "" ' c: : ; C ) a . t i > ( ) c: .a ff i ~ > . c: Q) "' Q) .. :: 0 ... , :: 0 Cl l 0 0 Q) "' Q) a . "' :: 0 0 ...., u. :a < ( :a ... . , < ( Cl ) z 0 ... . , u. :a < ( :a ... , Notes: •For "Dry Months" (Ma y - Oc t o b e r ) , pr o j e c t e d in c r e a s e s an d / o r de c r e a s e s 1n st o r a g e es t i m a t e d to mi m i c 20 1 3 co n d i t i o n s . • For "Wet Months" (No v e m b e r - Ap r i l ) , pr o j e c t e d st o r a g e de c l i n e s as s u m e an n u a l do w n s t r e a m re l e a s e o f 4, 2 0 0 AF Y an d de l i v e r i e s o f 4, 5 3 0 AF Y •. • For "Wet Months", pro j e c t e d st o r a g e in c r e a s e s ba s e d on hi s t o r i c tr e n d s fr o m ac t u a l st o r m da t a fo r th e pe r i o d o f 12 1 1 9 9 3 th r o u g h 6/ 2 0 1 1 . • Storage projection for 'W e t Mo n t h s " as s u m e th a t un s a t u r a t e d co n d i t i o n s ex i s t • Monthly rainfall projec t i o n s as s u m e d to oc c u r du n n g th e fi r s t we e k o f ea c h mo n t h .. •Rainfall projection prov i d e d by ww w . L o n g R a n g e W e a t h e r . c o m , an d up d a t e d 10 / 3 1 / 2 0 1 5 . • Evaporation included in st o r a g e pr o j e c t i o n . •Past 3 Year Avg. Proje c t i o n us e s hi s t o r i c da i l y ca p a c i t y ch a n g e s av e r a g e d fr o m 20 1 2 , 20 1 3 , 20 1 4 G: \ U t 1 1 i t i e s \ Z o n e 3\ A d v i s o r y Co m m i t t e e \ R e s e r v o i r Ch a r t In f o 0 0 i5 i5 i5 N "' "' N N .. : ~- .. : .. : : ; C ) a. 0 > ... . , :: 0 Q) 0 0 < ( ( / ) z 4. 0 ~. o 2. 0 1. 0 o, o §: c 0 := ca -·a ' i j I!: ! a. >-£ c 0 ~ AT T A C H M E N T 2 It e m 9. h . - Pa g e 4 Contractor Arrovo Grand OceanoCSD Grover Beach Pismo Beach CSA 12 San Murnelito Total Entr Surplus Total 2061 88120 294220 2727 45900 731 70 720 393 60 1113 60 8028 50490. 1307 70 220 5 28910 50960 •' ,, 4077 2527.80 6604.80 '• ., ~ San Luis Obispo County Flood Control and Water· District Zone 3 -Lopez Prqject -Monthly Operations Report October, 2015 Lopez Water Deliveries State Water Deliveries Tins Month Apnl to Present This Month January to Present Enbtlement Surplus Enutlement Surplus Total Annual Usage % of SWP I Change ID Usage % of Annual Request Annual Dehvenes Storage , ' Request, Usage % Usage % Usage % Usage % Usage ~ RequeS1 18419 89% 000 00% 133941 650% 000 00% 1339.41 45 5% ·:'.' 000 00% 000 00% 000 00% 000 .00% 000 0 O"lo 750 55 51 74% '' 47588 63 5% 7171 100% 000 00% 47481 659% 000 000/o 47481 426% '' .,, ''• ~,j.·" : 000 00% 000 00% 5047 63% 000 00% 5047 39% 1240 12282 9.9% (,I. ' ' 1057 09 852% f' . 470 21% 000 00% 7406 336% 000 000/o 7406 145% 57 916 161% 32 37 568% ,.;,;,, . 130 25% ~~ 7520 578% .. ~, .} " ;-,~ ... u . -'" ~t ,, ·---.; 329 •'' 260.60 6.4o/o o.oo O.Oo/o 1938.75 47.6% 0.00 0.0% 1938.75 29.4% 2177 190.78 8.8% 232 I 41.22 1640.54 75.4% .' t;;· :· •' Last Month Stored State Water I 'Ilus Month Stored State Water 131.24 " , , -' ~ SWP Dehvenes 1813.00 172.46 April to Present Lopez Entltlement+Surplus Water Usage January to Present State Water Usage 250 ! ~I .~~1818E e ~ Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul'15 Aug Sep OCt '16 '15 '15 '16 '16 '16 '16 '15 '16 Note Dehvenes are ID acre feet One acre foot= 325, 850 gallons or43, 560 cubic feet Safe yield 1s 8,730 acre feet Lopez Dam Operations This Month Year to Date Lake Elevallon (full at 522 37 feet) 46868 Difference (feet) I Storage (full at 49200 acre feet) 14893 %Full I Ramfall 001 145 Downstream Release (4200 acre feet/year) 503 91 2552 12 Spillage (acre feet) 0 000 -53 69 I 303% I Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 5ep oct ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ laocsoaPe•csA12!!JSanMlg I "Year to Date" IS January to present for State water, Apnl to present forLopezdehvenes, and July to present' forra1Dfall Comments: Reserv01r IS currently operated under the Low Reservoir Response Plan, therefore Entitlements shown represent a I 00/o reducbon Surplus water shown 1s actually "Carry Over" water as designated in the LRRP 1) Oceano supplied State Water to Canyon Crest Via Arroyo Grand e's Edna tum out A total of 2 32 AF delivered to Canyon Crest was added to Oceano's State Water usage this month and 2 32 AF was subtracted from Arroyo Grande's usaize this month Wednesday, November 4, 2015 Data entered by J. Ogren Report pnnted by Admm Page I of I Total Water Deliveries This )Vlontb 18419 55 SI 71 71 12282 13 86 329 451.38 ATTACHMENT 3 Item 9.h. - Page 5 ATTACHMENT 4 Item 9.h. - Page 6