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CC 2020-01-28_11c Voter Opinion Survey Results for Potential Future Ballot Measure MEMORANDUM TO: CITY COUNCIL FROM: JAMES A. BERGMAN, CITY MANAGER SUBJECT: DISCUSSION OF RESULTS OF A VOTER OPINION SURVEY FOR A POTENTIAL FUTURE BALLOT MEASURE DATE: JANUARY 28, 2020 SUMMARY OF ACTION: The City Council will review the results of a statistically valid survey of Arroyo Grande voters conducted by True North Research. IMPACT ON FINANCIAL AND PERSONNEL RESOURCES: The cost of the study was $25,000 and was allocated in the FY 2019-20 budget. RECOMMENDATION: It is recommended that the Council receive and file the survey. BACKGROUND: On May 28, 2019, the Council discussed the City’s revenue in general and potential opportunities to increase revenue in the face of rising business costs. The direction at the close of discussion was for staff to seek more information about the ballot measure process and surveys. On August 13, 2019, staff presented Council with three written proposals from consultant firms to conduct a statistically valid voter opinion survey. Mayor Pro Tem Barneich moved to authorize the City Manager to select a professional research firm and enter into an agreement to conduct a statistically valid survey of Arroyo Grande voters related to a potential future ballot measure. Council Member Storton seconded, and the motion passed 4-0 with Council Member George being absent. ANALYSIS OF ISSUES: When considering whether to place a ballot measure before the voters, cities generally undertake the following process: 1. Identify needed services and a lack of funds to provide those services (completed). 2. Survey a statistically valid sample of residents to objectively evaluate the viability of passing a local ballot measure and to understand voter’s preferences for the funds raised (current item). Item 11.c. - Page 1 CITY COUNCIL DISCUSSION AND DIRECTION BY THE CITY COUNCIL RELATED TO PROCURING AN AGREEMENT TO CONDUCT A VOTER OPINION SURVEY FOR A POTENTIAL FUTURE BALLOT MEASURE JANUARY 28, 2020 PAGE 2 3. Based upon the findings of the survey, the Council can make a decision whether or not to move forward with a ballot measure (future decision). 4. If the Council decides to move forward, the City should use the results of the survey to develop clear, resonant ballot language that effectively communicates how measure funds will be used and how accountability will be provided (future decision). 5. Conduct legally-permissible public outreach and education (future decision). 6. Place the measure on the ballot and await election results (future decision). Following direction from the Council, staff selected True North Research to develop and conduct the voter opinion survey, analyze the results, and provide a written and verbal report. Between November 11 and November 21, 2019, True North was able to complete surveys from a sample of 541 likely November 2020 voters. Attachment 1 is the report authored by True North Research and Dr. Timothy McLarney will provide a presentation of the survey and the results. ADVANTAGES: A review of the voter opinion survey can assist the Council in identifying community perspectives on services and potential support for a future ballot measure. DISADVANTAGES: There are no disadvantages identified. ALTERNATIVES: 1. Receive and file the voter opinion survey; 2. Provide other direction to staff. ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW: No environmental review is required for this item. PUBLIC NOTIFICATION AND COMMENTS: The Agenda was posted in accordance with Government Code Section 54954.2. ATTACHMENTS: 1. Voter Opinion Survey by True North Research Item 11.c. - Page 2 ATTACHMENT 1 Item 11.c. - Page 3 THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Item 11.c. - Page 4 Table of ContentsTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 iCity of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T ABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i List of Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .iii List of Figures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Motivation for Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Overview of Methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Organization of Report. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Disclaimer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 About True North. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Just the Facts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Quality of Life & City Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Initial Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Positive Arguments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Interim Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Negative Arguments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Final Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Support at Lower Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Quality of Life & City Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Quality of Life. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Question 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Changes to Improve Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Question 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Overall Performance Rating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Question 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Initial Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Question 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Support by Subgroups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Reasons for Opposing Measure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Question 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Question 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Service Ratings by Initial Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Positive Arguments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Question 8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Positive Arguments by Initial Support. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Interim Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Question 9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Support by Subgroups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Negative Arguments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Question 10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Negative Arguments by Initial Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Final Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Question 11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Change in Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Final Ballot Test at Lower Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Question 12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Background & Demographics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Questionnaire Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Item 11.c. - Page 5 Table of ContentsTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 iiCity of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Programming & Pre-Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Sample. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Statistical Margin of Error. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Recruiting & Data Collection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Data Processing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Rounding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Questionnaire & Toplines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Item 11.c. - Page 6 List of TablesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 iiiCity of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . L IST OF TABLES Table 1 Demographic Breakdown of Support at Initial Ballot Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Table 2 Top Services by Position at Initial Ballot Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Table 3 Top Positive Arguments by Position at Initial Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Table 4 Demographic Breakdown of Support at Interim Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Table 5 Negative Arguments by Position at Initial Ballot Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Table 6 Demographic Breakdown of Support at Final Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Table 7 Movement Between Initial & Final Ballot Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Table 8 Demographics of Sample . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Item 11.c. - Page 7 List of FiguresTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 ivCity of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . L IST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Quality of Life. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Figure 2 Quality of Life by Years in Arroyo Grande, Overall Satisfaction, Child in Hsld & Fiscal Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Figure 3 Quality of Life by Direction of Country, Homeowner on Voter File, Age & Gender . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Figure 4 Changes to Improve City. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Figure 5 Overall Satisfaction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Figure 6 Overall Satisfaction by Years in Arroyo Grande, Child in Hsld & Fiscal Management. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Figure 7 Overall Satisfaction by Direction of Country, Homeowner on Voter File, Age & Gender . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Figure 8 Initial Ballot Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2 Figure 9 Reasons for not Supporting Measure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Figure 10 Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Figure 11 Positive Arguments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Figure 12 Interim Ballot Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Figure 13 Negative Arguments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Figure 14 Final Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 3 Figure 15 Final Ballot Test at One-Half Cent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Figure 16 Maximum Margin of Error Due to Sampling. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Item 11.c. - Page 8 IntroductionTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 1City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I NTRODUCTION One of five cities that comprise California’s Central Coast, the City of Arroyo Grande is a small town in San Luis Obispo County known for its village, agriculture, rural character and temperate climate. Incorporated in 1911 and currently home to an estimated 17,876 residents1, the City’s team of full-time and part-time employees provides a full suite of municipal services including police, fire, public works, and recreation services. Over the past decade, the City of Arroyo Grande’s revenues have not kept pace with the growing costs associated with providing municipal services and facilities. Although the City has been pro- active in responding to this challenge by reducing its costs where feasible and through effective financial management practices, the practical reality is that existing revenues simply do not sup- port the high quality services that residents have come to expect. To provide the funding required to maintain and improve the quality of essential city services, the City of Arroyo Grande is considering establishing a local revenue measure. MOTIVATION FOR RESEARCH The primary purpose of this study was to produce an unbiased, statistically reliable evaluation of voters' interest in supporting a general sales tax measure to provide the funding noted above. Additionally, should the City decide to move for- ward with a revenue measure, the data provide guidance as to how to structure the measure so it is consistent with the community's priorities and expressed needs. Specifically, the study was designed to: • Gauge current, baseline support for enacting a local sales tax measure to ensure adequate funding for general municipal services; • Identify the types of services voters are most interested in funding, should the measure pass; • Expose voters to arguments in favor of, and against, the proposed tax measure to assess how information affects support for the measure; and • Estimate support for the measure once voters are presented with the types of information they will likely be exposed to during an election cycle. It is important to note at the outset that voters’ opinions about tax measures are often some- what fluid, especially when the amount of information they initially have about a measure is lim- ited. How voters think and feel about a measure today may not be the same way they think and feel once they have had a chance to hear more information about the measure during the elec- tion cycle. Accordingly, to accurately assess the feasibility of establishing a sales tax increase to fund municipal services, it was important that in addition to measuring current opinions about the measure (Question 5), the survey expose respondents to the types of information voters are likely to encounter during an election cycle, including arguments in favor of (Question 8) and opposed to (Question 10) the measure, and gauge how this type of information ultimately impacts their voting decision (Questions 9 & 11). 1. Source: California Department of Finance estimate for January 2019. Item 11.c. - Page 9 IntroductionTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 2City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY For a full discussion of the research methods and tech- niques used in this study, turn to Methodology on page 28. In brief, the survey was administered to a random sample of 541 voters in the City of Arroyo Grande who are likely to participate in the November 2020 election. The survey followed a mixed-method design that employed multiple recruiting methods (telephone and email) and multiple data collection methods (telephone and online). Administered between November 11 and November 21, 2019, the average interview lasted 16 minutes. ORGANIZATION OF REPORT This report is designed to meet the needs of readers who prefer a summary of the findings as well as those who are interested in the details of the results. For those who seek an overview of the findings, the sections titled Just the Facts and Conclusions are for you. They provide a summary of the most important factual findings of the survey in bul- let-point format and a discussion of their implications. For the interested reader, this section is followed by a more detailed question-by-question discussion of the results from the survey by topic area (see Table of Contents), as well as a description of the methodology employed for col- lecting and analyzing the data. And, for the truly ambitious reader, the questionnaire used for the interviews is contained at the back of this report (see Questionnaire & Toplines on page 31) and a complete set of crosstabulations for the survey results is contained in Appendix A. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS True North thanks the City of Arroyo Grande for the opportunity to assist the City in this important effort. The collective expertise, local knowledge, and insight pro- vided by city staff and representatives improved the overall quality of the research presented here. DISCLAIMER The statements and conclusions in this report are those of the authors (Dr. Timothy McLarney and Richard Sarles) at True North Research, Inc. and not necessarily those of the City of Arroyo Grande. Any errors and omissions are the responsibility of the authors. ABOUT TRUE NORTH True North is a full-service survey research firm that is dedicated to providing public agencies with a clear understanding of the values, perceptions, priorities, and concerns of their residents and voters. Through designing and implementing scientific surveys, focus groups, and one-on-one interviews as well as expert interpretation of the findings, True North helps its clients to move with confidence when making strategic decisions in a variety of areas—such as planning, policy evaluation, performance management, establishing fiscal priori- ties, passing revenue measures, and developing effective public information campaigns. During their careers, Dr. McLarney and Mr. Sarles have designed and conducted over 1,000 sur- vey research studies for public agencies, including more than 350 revenue measure feasibility studies. Of the measures that have gone to ballot based on Dr. McLarney’s recommendation, 97% have been successful. In total, the research that Dr. McLarney has conducted has led to over $32 billion in successful local revenue measures. Item 11.c. - Page 10 Just the FactsTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 3City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . J UST THE FACTS The following section is an outline of the main factual findings from the survey. For the reader’s convenience, we have organized the findings according to the section titles used in the body of this report. Thus, if you would like to learn more about a particular finding, simply turn to the appropriate report section. QUALITY OF LIFE & CITY SERVICES • Nine-in-ten voters surveyed shared favorable opinions of the quality of life in Arroyo Grande, with 42% reporting it is excellent and 50% stating it is good. Approximately 7% of voters sur- veyed said the quality of life in the City is fair, whereas about 1% used poor (<1%) or very poor (<1%) to describe the quality of life in Arroyo Grande. • When asked what changes the City could make to improve the quality of life in Arroyo Grande, 23% of respondents could not think of any desired changes (16%) or reported that no changes are needed (7%). Among specific changes desired, improving streets, roads, and infrastructure (9%) and limiting growth/development and preserving the small town feel (9%) were the most common, followed by providing affordable housing (8%) and reducing traffic congestion (7%). • Eighty-one percent (81%) of Arroyo Grande voters surveyed indicated that they were satisfied with the City’s efforts to provide municipal services, with 30% saying they were very satisfied and 51% somewhat satisfied. Approximately 14% reported that they were dissatisfied with the City’s overall performance, and 5% were unsure or unwilling to state their opinion. INITIAL BALLOT TEST • With only the information provided in the ballot language, 57% of likely November 2020 vot- ers surveyed indicated that they would definitely or probably support the proposed one-cent sales tax, whereas 32% stated that they would oppose the measure and 11% were unsure or unwilling to share their vote choice. • Among voters who initially opposed the sales tax or were unsure, the perception that city funds have been/will be mismanaged or misspent and a belief that taxes are already too high were the most common, each mentioned by over a quarter of voters who received the question. An additional 19% cited a desire for additional information about the measure. SERVICES When presented with a list of 12 services that could be funded by the sales tax measure, voters were most interested in using the money to: • Maintain local streets and repair potholes. • Repair and maintain public buildings and infrastructure including sidewalks, curbs, flood prevention infrastructure, and storm drains. • Maintain parks and recreation facilities including Soto Sports complex, courts, fields, play- grounds, and community centers. • Provide fire protection and emergency medical response services. Item 11.c. - Page 11 Just the FactsTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 4City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . POSITIVE ARGUMENTS When presented with arguments in favor of the measure, voters found the following arguments to be the most persuasive: • The funding raised by this measure will allow the City to keep up with basic repairs and maintenance to public facilities, storm drains, streets, and sidewalks. If we don't take care of it now, it will be a lot more expensive to repair in the future. •Fast emergency response times for 9-1-1 calls are critical for saving lives and property. This measure will ensure that we have enough police officers, firefighters, and other emergency personnel to respond quickly to 9-1-1 emergencies. •High quality parks, open spaces, sports fields, and recreation programs help keep kids healthy, active, and away from drugs, gangs, and crime. INTERIM BALLOT TEST • After learning more about the services that could be funded, as well as hearing arguments in favor of the measure, overall support among likely November 2020 voters increased slightly to 59%, with 28% of voters indicating that they would definitely vote yes on the mea- sure. Approximately 30% of respondents opposed the measure at this point in the survey, and an additional 12% were unsure or unwilling to state their vote choice. NEGATIVE ARGUMENTS Of the arguments in opposition to the measure, voters found the following arguments to be the most persuasive: • Taxes are already too high, we can't afford another tax increase. This is especially true for seniors and others on fixed-incomes. •There are no guarantees on how funds will be spent, which means the City can divert the money to pet projects. The City government can't be trusted with our tax dollars. FINAL BALLOT TEST • After providing respondents with the wording of the proposed measure, a list of services that could be funded by the measure, as well as arguments in favor of and against the pro- posal, support for the one-cent sales tax measure was found among 55% of likely November 2020 voters, with 27% indicating that they would definitely support the measure. Approxi- mately 33% of respondents were opposed to the measure at the Final Ballot Test, and 12% were unsure or unwilling to state their vote choice. SUPPORT AT LOWER RATE • Voters who did not support the proposed measure at the Final Ballot Test were asked if they would support the measure at a lower sales tax rate of one-half cent. An additional 8% of voters indicated they would support the measure under this condition. Item 11.c. - Page 12 ConclusionsTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 5City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C ONCLUSIONS The bulk of this report is devoted to conveying the details of the study findings. In this section, however, we attempt to ‘see the forest through the trees’ and note how the collective results of the survey answer the key questions that motivated the research. The following conclusions are based on True North’s interpretations of the survey results and the firm’s experience conducting revenue measure studies for public agencies throughout the State. The bulk of this report is devoted to conveying the details of the study findings. In this section, however, we attempt to ‘see the forest through the trees’ and note how the collective results of the survey answer the key questions that motivated the research. The following conclusions are based on True North’s interpretations of the survey results and the firm’s collective experience conducting revenue measure studies for public agencies throughout the State. Is it feasible to place a local sales tax measure on the ballot in 2020? Yes. Arroyo Grande voters have a high opinion of the quality of life in the city, and they value the services they receive from the City of Arroyo Grande. Together, these sentiments translate into solid natural support (57%) for establishing a one cent sales tax to provide funding for general city services including police patrols, drug and crime prevention, fire, emergency medical, and 9-1-1 emergency response, street, sidewalk, and pothole maintenance, addressing impacts from homelessness, and parks, recreation, childcare, and senior programs. The results of this study suggest that, if structured appropriately and combined with an effective public outreach/education effort and a solid independent campaign, the proposed sales tax measure has a good chance of passage if placed on the November 2020 ballot. Having stated that a general sales tax measure is feasible, it is important to note that the measure’s prospects will be shaped by external factors and that a recommendation to place the measure on the November 2020 ballot comes with several qualifications and conditions. Indeed, although the results are promising, all revenue measures must overcome chal- lenges prior to being successful. The proposed measure is no exception. The following paragraphs discuss some of the challenges and the next steps that True North recommends. Which services do Arroyo Grande voters view as priorities? A general tax is “any tax imposed for general governmental purposes”2 and is distinguished from a special tax in that the funds raised by a gen- eral tax are not earmarked for a specific purpose(s). Thus, a general tax provides a municipality with a great deal of flexibility with respect to what is funded by the measure on a year-to-year basis. Although the Arroyo Grande City Council would have the discretion to decide how to spend the revenues, the survey results indicate that voters are most interested in using the proceeds to fund public works and pub- 2. Section 1, Article XIIIC, California Constitution. Item 11.c. - Page 13 ConclusionsTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 6City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . lic safety. Specifically, voters most strongly favored using measure pro- ceeds to maintain local streets and repair potholes, repair and maintain public buildings and infrastructure including sidewalks, curbs, flood pre- vention infrastructure, and storm drains, maintain parks and recreation facilities including Soto Sports complex, courts, fields, playgrounds, and community centers, provide fire protection and emergency medical response services, keep public areas clean and free of graffiti, and pro- vide quick responses to 9-1-1 emergencies. How might a public information campaign affect support for the proposed measure? As noted in the body of this report, individuals’ opinions about revenue measures are often not rigid, especially when the amount of information presented to the public on a measure has been limited. Thus, in addition to measuring current support for the measure, one of the goals of this study was to explore how the introduction of additional information about the measure may affect voters’ opinions about the proposal. It is clear from the survey results that voters’ opinions about the pro- posed revenue measure are somewhat sensitive to the nature, and amount, of information they have about the measure. Information about the specific services and infrastructure improvements that could be funded by the measure, as well as arguments in favor of the measure, were found by many voters to be compelling reasons to support the pro- posed sales tax. However, voters were also sensitive to opposition argu- ments designed to reduce support for the measure. Accordingly, one of the keys to building and sustaining support for the proposed measure will be the presence of an effective, well-organized public outreach effort and a separate, independent campaign that focuses on the need for the measure as well as the many benefits that it will bring. How might the eco- nomic or political cli- mate alter support for the measure? A survey is a snapshot in time—which means the results of this study and the conclusions noted above must be viewed in light of the current economic and political climates. Should the economy and/or political cli- mate improve, support for the measure could increase. Conversely, neg- ative economic and/or political developments, especially at the local level, could dampen support for the measure below what was recorded in this study. Item 11.c. - Page 14 Quality of Life & City ServicesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 7City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q UALITY OF LIFE & CITY SERVICES The opening section of the survey was designed to gauge voters’ opinions regarding the City of Arroyo Grande’s performance in providing municipal services, as well as their perceptions of the quality of life in the City. QUALITY OF LIFE At the outset of the interview, voters were asked to rate the quality of life in the City of Arroyo Grande using a five-point scale of excellent, good, fair, poor, or very poor. As shown in Figure 1 below, nine-in-ten voters shared favorable opinions of the quality of life in Arroyo Grande, with 42% reporting it is excellent and 50% stating it is good. Approximately 7% of voters surveyed said the quality of life in the City is fair, whereas about 1% used poor (<1%) or very poor (<1%) to describe the quality of life in Arroyo Grande. Question 2 How would you rate the overall quality of life in Arroyo Grande? Would you say it is excellent, good, fair, poor or very poor? FIGURE 1 QUALITY OF LIFE Figures 2 and 3 on the next page show how ratings of the quality of life in Arroyo Grande varied by a host of demographic subgroups. Ranging from a low of 69% to a high of 99%, the figures make clear that the vast majority of subgroups provided favorable quality of life ratings. Even among the minority of respondents dissatisfied with the job the City is doing to provide services and those who rated the City’s fiscal management as poor or very poor, seven-in-ten provided positive assessments for the quality of life in the City. Very poor 0.2Poor 0.5 Fair 7.2 Excellent 41.8 Good 50.2 Prefer no to answer 0.2 Item 11.c. - Page 15 Quality of Life & City ServicesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 8City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . FIGURE 2 QUALITY OF LIFE BY YEARS IN ARROYO GRANDE, OVERALL SATISFACTION, CHILD IN HSLD & FISCAL MANAGEMENT FIGURE 3 QUALITY OF LIFE BY DIRECTION OF COUNTRY, HOMEOWNER ON VOTER FILE, AGE & GENDER 46.2 16.1 44.0 41.2 52.3 35.1 24.1 49.4 53.9 49.9 50.9 46.9 56.1 44.9 41.447.641.0Excellent 40.1 54.1 51.5 47.0 Good 55.1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Less than 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 or more Satisfied Dissatisfied Yes No Excellent, good Fair Poor, very poor Years in Arroyo Grande (Q1) Overall Satisfaction (Q4) Child in Hsld (Q14) Fiscal Management (Q13)% Respondents39.0 40.3 43.1 36.7 46.0 44.7 41.5 51.2 57.4 53.0 48.8 47.8 47.2 51.8 Excellent 44.0 39.4 45.2 34.5 Good 40.2 57.8 46.656.3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Right direction Wrong direction Yes No 18 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 64 65 or older Male Female Direction of Country (Q15) Homeowner on Voter File Age Gender% RespondentsItem 11.c. - Page 16 Quality of Life & City ServicesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 9City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CHANGES TO IMPROVE ARROYO GRANDE The next question in this series asked voters to indicate the one thing that city government could change to make Arroyo Grande a bet- ter place to live, now and in the future. Question 3 was posed in an open-ended manner, allow- ing residents to mention any aspect or attribute that came to mind without being prompted by or restricted to a particular list of options. True North later reviewed the verbatim responses and grouped them into the categories shown in Figure 4 below. Twenty-three percent (23%) of respondents could not think of any desired changes (16%) or reported that no changes are needed (7%) to make Arroyo Grande a better place to live. Among specific changes desired, improving streets, roads, and infrastructure (9%) and limiting growth/ development and preserving the small town feel (9%) were the most common, followed by pro- viding affordable housing (8%) and reducing traffic congestion (7%). Question 3 If the city government could change one thing to make Arroyo Grande a better place to live now and in the future, what change would you like to see? FIGURE 4 CHANGES TO IMPROVE CITY 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.6 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.6 5.0 6.6 7.3 7.8 9.3 9.4 16.0 3.0 4.1 0 5 10 15 20 Improve city planning Improve, provide additional parks, rec facilities Reduce cost of living Improve economy, jobs Provide additional activities, events for all ages Improve government, leadership, transparency Enforce traffic laws Improve public safety, police services Beautify city, landscaping Improve zoning laws, building permit process Add more safer bike, walking trails, lanes Improve Brisco freeway access Provide more dining, shopping opportunities Address water-related issues Reduce taxes, fees Improve budgeting, spending Address homeless issues, poverty Reduce traffic congestion No changes needed / Everything is fine Provide affordable housing Limit growth, development, preserve small town feel Improve streets, roads, infrastructure Not sure, nothing comes to mind % Respondents Item 11.c. - Page 17 Quality of Life & City ServicesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 10City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . OVERALL PERFORMANCE RATING The final question in this series asked respondents to indicate if, overall, they were satisfied or dissatisfied with the job the City of Arroyo Grande is doing to provide city services. Because this question does not reference a specific program, facil- ity, or service and requested that the respondent consider the City’s performance in general, the findings of this question may be regarded as an overall performance rating for the City. As shown in Figure 5 below, 81% of Arroyo Grande voters surveyed indicated that they were sat- isfied with the City’s efforts to provide municipal services, with 30% saying they were very satis- fied and 51% somewhat satisfied. Approximately 14% reported that they were dissatisfied with the City’s overall performance, and 5% were unsure or unwilling to state their opinion. For the interested reader, figures 6 and 7 on the next page display how the percentage of respondents satisfied with the City’s overall performance varied across several demographic subgroups. Question 4 Generally speaking, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the job the City of Arroyo Grande is doing to provide city services? FIGURE 5 OVERALL SATISFACTION Somewhat satisfied 51.3 Very satisfied 29.5 Somewhat dissatisfied 10.1 Very dissatisfied 4.0 Prefer not to answer 0.5 Not sure 4.6 Item 11.c. - Page 18 Quality of Life & City ServicesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 11City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . FIGURE 6 OVERALL SATISFACTION BY YEARS IN ARROYO GRANDE, CHILD IN HSLD & FISCAL MANAGEMENT FIGURE 7 OVERALL SATISFACTION BY DIRECTION OF COUNTRY, HOMEOWNER ON VOTER FILE, AGE & GENDER 34.3 28.3 51.4 9.3 9.5 41.4 54.8 43.7 69.6 36.4 27.829.532.4 Very satisfied 32.3 55.6 57.8 50.1 Smwt satisfied 45.6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Less than 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 or more Yes No Excellent, good Fair Poor, very poor Years in Arroyo Grande (Q1) Child in Hsld (Q14) Fiscal Management (Q13)% Respondents22.8 42.3 35.5 21.1 30.9 29.6 30.7 71.5 35.8 38.9 53.6 54.6 51.3 50.0 Very satisfied 32.1 29.2 28.5 31.7 Smwt satisfied 41.3 50.251.857.8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Right direction Wrong direction Yes No 18 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 64 65 or older Male Female Direction of Country (Q15) Homeowner on Voter File Age Gender% RespondentsItem 11.c. - Page 19 Initial Ballot TestTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 12City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I NITIAL BALLOT TEST The primary research objective of this survey was to estimate voters’ support for establishing a one-cent sales tax to provide funding for general city services in the City of Arroyo Grande, including police patrols, drug and crime prevention, fire, emergency medical, and 9-1-1 emer- gency response, street, sidewalk, and pothole maintenance, addressing impacts from homeless- ness, and parks, recreation, childcare, and senior programs. To this end, Question 5 was designed to take an early assessment of voters’ support for the proposed measure. The motivation for placing Question 5 near the front of the survey is twofold. First, voter support for a measure can often depend on the amount of information they have about a measure. At this point in the survey, the respondent has not been provided information about the proposed measure beyond what is presented in the ballot language. This situation is analogous to a voter casting a ballot with limited knowledge about the measure, such as what might occur in the absence of an effective campaign. Question 5, also known as the Initial Ballot Test, is thus a good measure of voter support for the proposed measure as it is today, on the natural. Because the Initial Ballot Test provides a gauge of natural support for the measure, it also serves a second purpose in that it provides a useful baseline from which to judge the impact of various informa- tion items conveyed later in the survey on voter support for the measure. Question 5 Next year, voters in Arroyo Grande may be asked to vote on a local ballot measure. Let me read you a summary of the measure. To provide funding for general city services in Arroyo Grande, including police patrols, drug and crime prevention; fire, emergency medical, and 9-1-1 emergency response; street, sidewalk, and pothole maintenance; addressing impacts from homelessness; and parks, recreation, childcare, and senior programs; shall an ordinance establishing a one cent sales tax be adopted, providing approximately 4 million dollars annually for city services until ended by voters that can't be taken by the State, and requiring citizen over- sight and all funds controlled locally? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? FIGURE 8 INITIAL BALLOT TEST As shown in Figure 8, 57% of likely November 2020 voters surveyed indicated that they would definitely or probably support the proposed one-cent sales tax, whereas 32% stated that they would oppose the measure and 11% were unsure or unwilling to share their vote choice. For general taxes in California, the level of sup- port recorded at the Initial Ballot Test is approx- imately seven percentage points above the simple majority (50%+1) required for passage. Probably yes 33.2 Definitely yes 23.6 Probably no 12.5 Definitely no 19.8 Prefer not to answer 1.1Not sure 9.7 Item 11.c. - Page 20 Initial Ballot TestTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 13City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . SUPPORT BY SUBGROUPS For the interested reader, Table 1 shows how support for the measure at the Initial Ballot Test varied by key demographic traits. The blue column (Approxi- mate % of Universe) indicates the percentage of the electorate that each subgroup category com- prises. Initial support for the proposed sales tax measure varied considerably across voter subgroups, with the largest differences found among partisan subgroups (household and indi- vidual), age, vote by mail status, and by voters’ perceptions regarding the City’s fiscal manage- ment and the job the City is doing to provide services. It is also worth noting that support among the subset of voters likely to participate in the March 2020 election was just slightly lower than that found among the larger group of November 2020 voters (55% vs. 57%). TABLE 1 DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF SUPPORT AT INITIAL BALLOT TEST Approximate % of Voter Universe % Probably or Definitely Yes % Not sure Overall 100 56.8 9.7 Less than 5 16 63.5 8.2 5 to 9 17 65.8 9.9 10 to 14 13 49.2 16.4 15 or more 53 54.1 8.5 Satisfied 85 63.0 8.2 Dissatisfied 15 29.2 12.4 Yes 28 61.9 7.5 No 72 56.2 9.9 Excellent, good 51 76.1 5.7 Fair 33 46.4 12.3 Poor, very poor 16 19.9 5.6 Right direction 34 48.5 8.9 Wrong direction 66 64.7 7.9 Yes 68 56.0 10.5 No 32 58.7 8.0 Yes 86 54.0 10.4 No 14 74.7 5.0 Democrat 35 66.5 9.0 Republican 39 46.9 9.9 Other / DTS 26 58.7 10.4 Single dem 14 65.5 9.9 Dual dem 10 74.4 4.8 Single rep 13 41.6 5.4 Dual rep 16 44.9 14.5 Other 17 56.2 13.7 Mixed 29 60.2 8.3 18 to 29 8 70.1 16.2 30 to 39 11 49.2 11.6 40 to 49 15 59.7 10.9 50 to 64 28 52.5 9.2 65 or older 39 58.3 7.7 Since Nov 16 8 68.5 9.5 Jun 10 to <Nov 16 15 63.3 12.4 Jun 04 to <Jun 10 13 54.8 3.7 Before June 04 65 54.4 10.2 Yes 79 54.9 10.1 No 21 64.2 8.2 Yes 87 55.3 10.4 No 13 67.7 4.6 Male 49 56.0 8.4 Female 51 60.7 10.2 Likely Nov 2019 Voter Likely Mar 2020 Voter Gender Registration Year Household Party Type Years in Arroyo Grande (Q1) Age Party Fiscal Management (Q13) Overall Satisfaction (Q4) Child in Hsld (Q14) Direction of Country (Q15) Homeowner on Voter File Likely to Vote by Mail Item 11.c. - Page 21 Initial Ballot TestTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 14City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . REASONS FOR OPPOSING MEASURE Respondents who opposed the measure (or were unsure) at the Question 5 Initial Ballot Test were subsequently asked if there was a particular rea- son for their position. Question 6 was asked in an open-ended manner, allowing respondents to mention any reason that came to mind without being prompted by, or restricted to, a particular list of options. Among specific reasons offered for not supporting the measure, the perception that city funds have been/will be mismanaged or misspent and a belief that taxes are already too high were the most common, each mentioned by over a quarter of voters who received the question. An addi- tional 19% cited a desire for additional information about the measure. Question 6 Is there a particular reason why you do not support or are unsure about the mea- sure I just described? FIGURE 9 REASONS FOR NOT SUPPORTING MEASURE 1.5 1.5 2.7 2.8 3.3 3.9 5.2 6.5 8.1 26.5 27.9 18.8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 City is okay as-is, no need for more money Mentioned past ballot measure Other higher priorities in community Cost too high and/or duration too long Not sure, no particular reason City has enough money Do not trust Government Other ways to be funded Money will go to employees/union pensions, salaries Need more information Taxes, already too high Money is misspent, mismanaged % Respondents Who Do Not Support Measure Item 11.c. - Page 22 ServicesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 15City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S ERVICES The ballot language presented in Question 5 indicated that the proposed measure would provide funding for general city services in the City of Arroyo Grande, including police patrols, drug and crime prevention, fire, emergency medical, and 9-1-1 emergency response, street, sidewalk, and pothole maintenance, addressing impacts from homelessness, and parks, recreation, childcare, and senior programs. The purpose of Question 7 was to provide respondents with a full range of services that may be funded by the proposed measure, as well as identify which of these services voters most favored funding with the proceeds of the measure. After reading each service, respondents were asked if they would favor or oppose spending some of the money on that particular item assuming that the measure passed. Descriptions of the services tested, as well as voters’ responses, are shown in Figure 10 below. The order in which the services were presented to respondents was randomized to avoid a systematic posi- tion bias. Question 7 The measure we've been discussing will provide funding for a variety of services in your community. If the measure passes, would you favor or oppose using some of the money to: _____, or do you not have an opinion? FIGURE 10 SERVICES Overall, the services that resonated with the largest percentage of respondents were maintaining local streets and repairing potholes (88% strongly or somewhat favor), repairing and maintaining public buildings and infrastructure including sidewalks, curbs, flood prevention infrastructure, and storm drains (86%), maintaining parks and recreation facilities including Soto Sports com- plex, courts, fields, playgrounds, and community centers (83%), and providing fire protection and emergency medical response services (82%). 29.3 25.5 40.8 35.1 39.8 43.6 56.2 46.5 56.7 44.6 52.4 62.6 29.9 34.6 25.7 32.0 29.9 30.4 23.3 33.5 25.4 38.2 33.2 25.4 0 102030405060708090100 Provide early childhood education programs, quality childcare services Provide community events that promote a sense of identity, place, health, wellness, community celebration Reduce drug-related crimes Promote economic development to attract new employers, good paying jobs to the city Address the impacts of homelessness Provide police services, including neighborhood police patrols, crime investigations, neighborhood code enforcement Provide quick responses to 9-1-1 emergencies Keep public areas clean, free of graffiti Provide fire protection and emergency medical response services Maintain parks, recreation facilities incl Soto Sports complex, courts, fields, playgrounds, community centers Repair, maintain public buildings and infrastructure incl sidewalks, curbs, flood prevention infrastructure, storm drains Maintain local streets and repair potholes Q7i Q7l Q7b Q7k Q7j Q7a Q7d Q7h Q7c Q7g Q7f Q7e % Respondents Strongly favor Somewhat favor Item 11.c. - Page 23 ■ ■ ServicesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 16City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . SERVICE RATINGS BY INITIAL SUPPORT Table 2 presents the top five services (show- ing the percentage of respondents who strongly favor each) by position at the Initial Ballot Test. Not surprisingly, individuals who initially opposed the measure were generally less likely to favor spending money on a given service when compared with supporters. Nevertheless, initial sup- porters, opponents, and the undecided did agree on three of the top five priorities for funding. TABLE 2 TOP SERVICES BY POSITION AT INITIAL BALLOT TEST Position at Initial Ballot Test (Q5) Item Project or Improvement Summary % Strongly Favor Q7e Maintain local streets and repair potholes 74 Q7c Provide fire protection and emergency medical response services 74 Q7d Provide quick responses to 9-1-1 emergencies 73 Q7f Repair, maintain public buildings and infrastructure incl sidewalks, curbs, flood prevention infrastructure, storm drains 68 Q7a Provide police services, including neighborhood police patrols, crime investigations, neighborhood code enforcement 56 Q7e Maintain local streets and repair potholes 49 Q7h Keep public areas clean, free of graffiti 36 Q7c Provide fire protection and emergency medical response services 33 Q7d Provide quick responses to 9-1-1 emergencies 32 Q7f Repair, maintain public buildings and infrastructure incl sidewalks, curbs, flood prevention infrastructure, storm drains 31 Q7e Maintain local streets and repair potholes 45 Q7c Provide fire protection and emergency medical response services 42 Q7b Reduce drug-related crimes 40 Q7d Provide quick responses to 9-1-1 emergencies 37 Q7g Maintain parks, recreation facilities incl Soto Sports complex, courts, fields, playgrounds, community centers 35 Probably or Definitely Yes (n = 308) Probably or Definitely No (n = 175) Not Sure (n = 52) Item 11.c. - Page 24 Positive ArgumentsTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 17City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . P OSITIVE ARGUMENTS If the City chooses to place a measure on an upcoming ballot, voters will be exposed to various arguments about the measure in the ensuing months. Proponents of the measure will present arguments to try to persuade voters to support a measure, just as opponents may present argu- ments to achieve the opposite goal. For this study to be a reliable gauge of voter support for the proposed sales tax measure, it is important that the survey simulate the type of discussion and debate that will occur prior to the vote taking place and identify how this information ultimately shapes voters’ opinions about the measure. The objective of Question 8 was thus to present respondents with arguments in favor of the pro- posed measure and identify whether they felt the arguments were convincing reasons to support it. Arguments in opposition to the measure were also presented and are discussed later in this report (see Negative Arguments on page 21). Within each series, specific arguments were admin- istered in random order to avoid a systematic position bias. Question 8 What I'd like to do now is tell you what some people are saying about the measure we've been discussing. Supporters of the measure say: _____. Do you think this is a very convinc- ing, somewhat convincing, or not at all convincing reason to SUPPORT the measure? FIGURE 11 POSITIVE ARGUMENTS Figure 11 presents the truncated positive arguments tested, as well as voters’ reactions to the arguments. The arguments are ranked from most convincing to least convincing based on the percentage of respondents who indicated that the argument was either a ‘very convincing’ or ‘somewhat convincing’ reason to support the sales tax measure. Using this methodology, the 16.6 15.7 29.5 31.2 32.1 31.4 36.4 35.6 31.2 32.4 33.0 31.1 36.0 31.6 30.9 31.9 34.5 31.0 32.2 37.0 38.3 39.0 0 102030405060708090100 State mandating early parole, more criminals being released into city, county; measure provides funds we need to combat crime in community Measure will help fund economic development programs City needs to attract new employers, good paying jobs to Arroyo Grande Over past 10 yrs, cut staff by 20%, reformed pension costs, deferred maintenance, cut services; still need $3M to maintain services, facilities, quality of life There will be a clear system of accountability incl independent citizen oversight, annual reports to community to ensure that money is spent properly Measure will provide funding to avoid deep cuts in all service areas, incl police, fire, 9-1-1, maintenance of streets, parks, public facilities, programs for youth, seniors By keeping city safe, clean, well-maintained, measure will help protect property values, keep Arroyo Grande a great place to live All money raised by measure will be used to fund essential services, facilities here in Arroyo Grande; by law, it can’t be taken away by State About half of money raised by sales tax will come from people who visit community, but don’t live here; measure will make sure they pay their fair share High quality parks, open spaces, sports fields, recreation programs help keep kids healthy, active, away from drugs, gangs, crime Fast response for 9-1-1 critical for saving lives; measure will ensure enough police officers, firefighters, emergency personnel to respond quickly to 9-1-1 Funding will allow City to keep up with repairs, maintenance to facilities, storm drains, streets, sidewalks; If we don’t take care of it now, will be more expensive in future Q8d Q8h Q8i Q8a Q8k Q8f Q8b Q8g Q8j Q8c Q8e % Respondents Very convincing Somewhat convincing Item 11.c. - Page 25 ■ ■ Positive ArgumentsTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 18City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . most compelling positive arguments were: The funding raised by this measure will allow the City to keep up with basic repairs and maintenance to public facilities, storm drains, streets, and sidewalks. If we don't take care of it now, it will be a lot more expensive to repair in the future (72% very or somewhat convincing), Fast emergency response times for 9-1-1 calls are critical for saving lives and property. This measure will ensure that we have enough police officers, fire- fighters, and other emergency personnel to respond quickly to 9-1-1 emergencies (71%), and High quality parks, open spaces, sports fields, and recreation programs help keep kids healthy, active, and away from drugs, gangs, and crime (68%). POSITIVE ARGUMENTS BY INITIAL SUPPORT Table 3 lists the top five most convinc- ing positive arguments (showing the percentage of respondents who cited it as very convincing) according to respondents’ vote choice at the Initial Ballot Test. The positive arguments reso- nated with a much higher percentage of voters initially inclined to support the measure com- pared with those who initially opposed the measure or were unsure. Nevertheless, two arguments were ranked among the top five most compelling by all three groups. TABLE 3 TOP POSITIVE ARGUMENTS BY POSITION AT INITIAL BALLOT TEST Position at Initial Ballot Test (Q5) Item Positive Argument Summary % Very Convincing Q8b All money raised by measure will be used to fund essential services, facilities here in Arroyo Grande; by law, it can’t be taken away by State 53 Q8k Measure will provide funding to avoid deep cuts in all service areas, incl police, fire, 9-1-1, maintenance of streets, parks, public facilities, programs for youth, seniors 51 Q8e Funding will allow City to keep up with repairs, maintenance to facilities, storm drains, streets, sidewalks; If we don’t take care of it now, will be more expensive in future 51 Q8g About half of money raised by sales tax will come from people who visit community, but don’t live here; measure will make sure they pay their fair share 51 Q8c Fast response for 9-1-1 critical for saving lives; measure will ensure enough police officers, firefighters, emergency personnel to respond quickly to 9-1-1 49 Q8g About half of money raised by sales tax will come from people who visit community, but don’t live here; measure will make sure they pay their fair share 15 Q8b All money raised by measure will be used to fund essential services, facilities here in Arroyo Grande; by law, it can’t be taken away by State 14 Q8j High quality parks, open spaces, sports fields, recreation programs help keep kids healthy, active, away from drugs, gangs, crime 14 Q8a There will be a clear system of accountability incl independent citizen oversight, annual reports to community to ensure that money is spent properly 13 Q8f By keeping city safe, clean, well-maintained, measure will help protect property values, keep Arroyo Grande a great place to live 11 Q8a There will be a clear system of accountability incl independent citizen oversight, annual reports to community to ensure that money is spent properly 25 Q8j High quality parks, open spaces, sports fields, recreation programs help keep kids healthy, active, away from drugs, gangs, crime 24 Q8c Fast response for 9-1-1 critical for saving lives; measure will ensure enough police officers, firefighters, emergency personnel to respond quickly to 9-1-1 20 Q8g About half of money raised by sales tax will come from people who visit community, but don’t live here; measure will make sure they pay their fair share 19 Q8b All money raised by measure will be used to fund essential services, facilities here in Arroyo Grande; by law, it can’t be taken away by State 19 Probably or Definitely Yes (n = 308) Probably or Definitely No (n = 175) Not Sure (n = 52) Item 11.c. - Page 26 Interim Ballot TestTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 19City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I NTERIM BALLOT TEST After exposing respondents to services that could be funded by the measure as well as the types of positive arguments voters may encounter during an election cycle, the survey again presented respondents with the ballot language used previously to gauge how support for the proposed sales tax measure may have changed. As shown in Figure 12, overall support among likely November 2020 voters increased slightly to 59%, with 28% of voters indicating that they would definitely vote yes on the measure. Approximately 30% of respondents opposed the measure at this point in the survey, and an additional 12% were unsure or unwilling to state their vote choice. Question 9 Sometimes people change their mind about a measure once they have more infor- mation about it. Now that you have heard a bit more about the measure, let me read you a sum- mary of it again. To provide funding for general city services in Arroyo Grande, including police patrols, drug and crime prevention; fire, emergency medical, and 9-1-1 emergency response; street, sidewalk, and pothole maintenance; addressing impacts from homelessness; and parks, recreation, childcare, and senior programs; shall an ordinance establishing a one cent sales tax be adopted, providing approximately 4 million dollars annually for city services until ended by voters that can't be taken by the State, and requiring citizen oversight and all funds controlled locally? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? FIGURE 12 INTERIM BALLOT TEST SUPPORT BY SUBGROUPS Table 4 on the next page shows how support for the measure at this point in the survey varied by key voter subgroups, as well as the change in subgroup sup- port when compared with the Initial Ballot Test. Positive differences appear in green and negative differences appear in red. As shown in the table, support for the sales tax measure increased or decreased by modest amounts (less than 5 percentage points) between the Initial and Interim Ballot Test for most voter subgroups. The largest increases in support occurred among voters not likely to vote by mail (+10%) and those who have lived in Arroyo Grande between 10 and 14 years (+9%). Not sure 11.3 Prefer not to answer 0.5 Definitely no 16.3 Probably no 13.2 Definitely yes 28.2 Probably yes 30.6 Item 11.c. - Page 27 Interim Ballot TestTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 20City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . TABLE 4 DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF SUPPORT AT INTERIM BALLOT TEST Approximate % of Voter Universe % Probably or Definitely Yes Change From Initial Ballot Test (Q5) Overall 100 58.8 +1.9 Less than 5 16 70.2 +6.7 5 to 9 17 62.7 -3.2 10 to 14 13 58.4 +9.2 15 or more 53 54.3 +0.3 Satisfied 85 65.1 +2.1 Dissatisfied 15 31.9 +2.7 Yes 28 66.9 +5.0 No 72 57.8 +1.5 Excellent, good 51 79.5 +3.3 Fair 33 49.1 +2.7 Poor, very poor 16 14.6 -5.3 Right direction 34 48.5 -0.0 Wrong direction 66 68.0 +3.3 Yes 68 56.2 +0.2 No 32 64.3 +5.5 Yes 86 56.4 +2.3 No 14 73.9 -0.7 Democrat 35 69.8 +3.3 Republican 39 49.0 +2.2 Other / DTS 26 58.4 -0.3 Single dem 14 70.3 +4.8 Dual dem 10 77.5 +3.0 Single rep 13 47.4 +5.8 Dual rep 16 45.7 +0.7 Other 17 55.6 -0.6 Mixed 29 60.7 +0.5 18 to 29 8 71.9 +1.8 30 to 39 11 51.5 +2.3 40 to 49 15 65.4 +5.8 50 to 64 28 50.3 -2.3 65 or older 39 61.6 +3.3 Since Nov 16 8 75.2 +6.7 Jun 10 to <Nov 16 15 63.6 +0.3 Jun 04 to <Jun 10 13 57.0 +2.2 Before June 04 65 56.0 +1.7 Yes 79 54.9 +0.1 No 21 72.8 +8.6 Yes 87 56.0 +0.8 No 13 77.4 +9.7 Male 49 58.7 +2.8 Female 51 61.9 +1.2 Likely Mar 2020 Voter Gender Household Party Type Age Registration Year Likely Nov 2019 Voter Direction of Country (Q15) Homeowner on Voter File Likely to Vote by Mail Party Years in Arroyo Grande (Q1) Overall Satisfaction (Q4) Child in Hsld (Q14) Fiscal Management (Q13) Item 11.c. - Page 28 Negative ArgumentsTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 21City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N EGATIVE ARGUMENTS Whereas Question 8 of the survey presented respondents with arguments in favor of the sales tax measure, Question 10 presented respondents with arguments designed to elicit opposition to the measure. In the case of Question 10, however, respondents were asked whether they felt that the argument was a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not at all convincing reason to oppose the measure. The arguments tested, as well as voters’ opinions about the arguments, are presented below in Figure 13. Question 10 Next, let me tell you what opponents of the measure are saying. Opponents of the measure say: _____. Do you think this is a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not at all convincing reason to OPPOSE the measure? FIGURE 13 NEGATIVE ARGUMENTS Most voters found the negative arguments tested to be less convincing than the positive argu- ments. The most compelling negative arguments were: Taxes are already too high, we can't afford another tax increase. This is especially true for seniors and others on fixed-incomes (67% very or somewhat convincing) and There are no guarantees on how funds will be spent, which means the City can divert the money to pet projects. The City government can't be trusted with our tax dollars (64%). NEGATIVE ARGUMENTS BY INITIAL SUPPORT Table 5 on the next page ranks the negative arguments (showing the percentage of respondents who cited each as very convincing) according to respondents’ vote choice at the Initial Ballot Test. 23.4 31.1 26.8 33.4 36.5 28.0 25.2 31.7 30.5 30.3 0 102030405060708090100 City employees are making too much money in salary, pensions, benefits, that’s the problem; City needs to tighten its belt before asking residents to pay more taxes This tax will last forever; there is no expiration date We already pay a half-cent sales tax for city services; now they want more money? That’s not fair to taxpayers There are no guarantees on how funds will be spent, which means City can divert the money to pet projects; City government can’t be trusted with tax dollars Taxes are already too high, we can’t afford another tax increase; this is especially true for seniors, others on fixed-incomes Q10b Q10e Q10c Q10d Q10a % Respondents Very convincing Somewhat convincing Item 11.c. - Page 29 ■ ■ Negative ArgumentsTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 22City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . TABLE 5 NEGATIVE ARGUMENTS BY POSITION AT INITIAL BALLOT TEST Position at Initial Ballot Test (Q5) Item Negative Argument Summary % Very Convincing Q10a Taxes are already too high, we can’t afford another tax increase; this is especially true for seniors, others on fixed-incomes 22 Q10d There are no guarantees on how funds will be spent, which means City can divert the money to pet projects; City government can’t be trusted with tax dollars 21 Q10e This tax will last forever; there is no expiration date 17 Q10b City employees are making too much money in salary, pensions, benefits, that’s the problem; City needs to tighten its belt before asking residents to pay more taxes 13 Q10c We already pay a half-cent sales tax for city services; now they want more money? Tha 11 Q10a Taxes are already too high, we can’t afford another tax increase; this is especially true for seniors, others on fixed-incomes 65 Q10c We already pay a half-cent sales tax for city services; now they want more money? That’s not fair to taxpayers 58 Q10e This tax will last forever; there is no expiration date 55 Q10d There are no guarantees on how funds will be spent, which means City can divert the money to pet projects; City government can’t be trusted with tax dollars 53 Q10b City employees are making too much money in salary, pensions, benefits, that’s the problem; City needs to tighten its belt before asking residents to pay more taxes 44 Q10d There are no guarantees on how funds will be spent, which means City can divert the money to pet projects; City government can’t be trusted with tax dollars 37 Q10a Taxes are already too high, we can’t afford another tax increase; this is especially true for seniors, others on fixed-incomes 28 Q10e This tax will last forever; there is no expiration date 28 Q10b City employees are making too much money in salary, pensions, benefits, that’s the problem; City needs to tighten its belt before asking residents to pay more taxes 15 Q10c We already pay a half-cent sales tax for city services; now they want more money? That’s not fair to taxpayers 14 Probably or Definitely Yes (n = 308) Probably or Definitely No (n = 175) Not Sure (n = 52) Item 11.c. - Page 30 Final Ballot TestTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 23City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F INAL BALLOT TEST Voters’ opinions about ballot measures are often not rigid, especially when the amount of infor- mation presented to the public on a measure has been limited. A goal of the survey was thus to gauge how voters’ opinions about the proposed measure may be affected by the information they could encounter during the course of an election cycle. After providing respondents with the wording of the proposed measure, services that could be funded, and arguments in favor of and against the proposal, the survey again asked voters whether they would vote ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on the proposed sales tax measure. Question 11 Now that you have heard a bit more about the measure, let me read you a sum- mary of it one more time. To provide funding for general city services in Arroyo Grande, includ- ing police patrols, drug and crime prevention; fire, emergency medical, and 9-1-1 emergency response; street, sidewalk, and pothole maintenance; addressing impacts from homelessness; and parks, recreation, childcare, and senior programs; shall an ordinance establishing a one cent sales tax be adopted, providing approximately 4 million dollars annually for city services until ended by voters that can't be taken by the State, and requiring citizen oversight and all funds controlled locally? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this mea- sure? FIGURE 14 FINAL BALLOT TEST At this point in the survey, support for the one-cent sales tax measure was found among 55% of likely November 2020 voters, with 27% indicating that they would definitely support the mea- sure. Approximately 33% of respondents were opposed to the measure at the Final Ballot Test, and 12% were unsure or unwilling to state their vote choice. Probably yes 28.3 Definitely yes 27.1 Probably no 14.8 Definitely no 17.8 Prefer not to answer 2.0Not sure 10.0 Item 11.c. - Page 31 Change in SupportTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 24City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C HANGE IN SUPPORT Table 6 provides a closer look at how support for the proposed measure changed over the course of the interview by calculating the difference in support between the Initial, Interim, and Final Ballot tests within various subgroups of voters. The percentage of support for the measure at the Final Ballot Test is shown in the column with the heading % Probably or Definitely Yes. The columns to the right show the difference between the Final and the Initial, and the Final and Interim Ballot Tests. Positive differences appear in green, and negative differences appear in red. TABLE 6 DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF SUPPORT AT FINAL BALLOT TEST Approximate % of Voter Universe % Probably or Definitely Yes Change From Initial Ballot Test (Q5) Change From Interim Ballot Test (Q9) Overall 100 55.4 -1.5 -3.4 Less than 5 16 66.7 +3.2 -3.5 5 to 9 17 60.1 -5.8 -2.6 10 to 14 13 47.5 -1.7 -10.9 15 or more 53 52.6 -1.5 -1.7 Satisfied 85 61.7 -1.2 -3.3 Dissatisfied 15 28.5 -0.7 -3.3 Yes 28 66.2 +4.3 -0.7 No 72 53.0 -3.2 -4.8 Excellent, good 51 75.9 -0.2 -3.6 Fair 33 47.1 +0.7 -1.9 Poor, very poor 16 11.6 -8.3 -3.0 Right direction 34 42.6 -5.8 -5.8 Wrong direction 66 65.2 +0.5 -2.8 Yes 68 53.3 -2.6 -2.8 No 32 59.7 +1.0 -4.6 Yes 86 52.3 -1.8 -4.1 No 14 74.9 +0.3 +1.0 Democrat 35 66.8 +0.3 -3.0 Republican 39 43.0 -3.9 -6.0 Other / DTS 26 58.4 -0.3 +0.0 Single dem 14 66.4 +0.9 -3.9 Dual dem 10 75.6 +1.2 -1.8 Single rep 13 39.3 -2.3 -8.1 Dual rep 16 41.3 -3.6 -4.3 Ot her 17 57.3 +1.1 +1.7 Mixed 29 56.7 -3.5 -4.0 18 to 29 8 66.3 -3.8 -5.6 30 to 39 11 49.2 No change -2.3 40 to 49 15 65.4 +5.8 No change 50 to 64 28 50.5 -2.0 +0.3 65 or older 39 54.4 -3.8 -7.2 Since Nov 16 8 75.2 +6.7 No change Jun 10 to <Nov 16 15 57.4 -5.9 -6.3 Jun 04 to <Jun 10 13 56.6 +1.8 -0.4 Before June 04 65 52.3 -2.0 -3.7 Yes 79 52.4 -2.4 -2.5 No 21 66.2 +2.0 -6.6 Yes 87 53.6 -1.7 -2.5 No 13 67.8 +0.1 -9.6 Male 49 55.7 -0.3 -3.0 Female 51 58.3 -2.4 -3.7 Years in Arroyo Grande (Q1) Overall Satisfaction (Q4) Child in Hsld (Q14) Fiscal Management (Q13) Direction of Country (Q15) Homeowner on Voter File Likely to Vote by Mail Party Likely Mar 2020 Voter Gender Household Party Type Age Registration Year Likely Nov 2019 Voter Item 11.c. - Page 32 Change in SupportTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 25City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . As expected, voters generally responded to the negative arguments with a reduction in their sup- port for the sales tax measure when compared with the levels recorded at the Interim Ballot Test. The general trend over the course of the entire survey (Initial to Final Ballot Test) was also one of mildly declining support for most voter subgroups, averaging -2 percentage points overall. Nev- ertheless, even with this decline, support for the proposed measure at the Final Ballot Test remained above the simple majority required for passage of a general tax. Whereas Table 6 displays change in support for the measure over the course of the interview at the subgroup level, Table 7 displays the individual-level changes that occurred between the Ini- tial and Final Ballot tests for the measure. On the left side of the table is shown each of the response options to the Initial Ballot Test and the percentage of respondents in each group. The cells in the body of the table depict movement within each response group (row) based on the information provided throughout the course of the survey as recorded by the Final Ballot Test. For example, in the first row we see that of the 23.6% of respondents who indicated that they would definitely support the measure at the Initial Ballot Test, 20.1% also indicated they would definitely support the measure at the Final Ballot Test. Approximately 3.0% moved to the proba- bly support group, 0.0% moved to the probably oppose group, 0.2% moved to the definitely oppose group, and 0.3% stated they were now unsure of their vote choice. To ease interpretation of the table, the cells are color coded. Red shaded cells indicate declining support, green shaded cells indicate increasing support, whereas white cells indicate no move- ment. Moreover, within the cells, a white font indicates a fundamental change in the vote: from yes to no, no to yes, or not sure to either yes or no. TABLE 7 MOVEMENT BETWEEN INITIAL & FINAL BALLOT TEST As one might expect, the information conveyed in the survey had the greatest impact on individ- uals who either weren’t sure about how they would vote at the Initial Ballot Test or were tentative in their vote choice (probably yes or probably no). Moreover, Table 7 makes clear that although the information did impact some voters, it did not do so in a consistent way for all respondents. Some respondents found the information provided during the course of the interview to be a rea- son to become less supportive of the measure, while a slightly larger percentage found the same information reason to be more supportive. Despite 15% of respondents making a fundamental3 shift in their opinion about the measure over the course of the interview, the net impact is that support for the measure at the Final Ballot Test was approximately two percentage points lower than support at the Initial Ballot Test. 3. This is, they changed from a position of support, opposition, or undecided at the Initial Ballot Test to a dif- ferent position at the Final Ballot Test. Definitely support Probably support Probably oppose Definitely oppose Not sure Definitely support 23.6%20.1% 3.0%0.0% 0.2% 0.3% Probably support 33.2%6.6% 22.1%1.9% 0.3% 2.3% Probably oppose 12.5%0.0% 0.8%6.4% 3.2%2.0% Definitely oppose 19.8%0.3% 0.3%4.6% 13.3%1.3% Not sure 10.8%0.1% 2.0% 1.9% 0.8%6.0% Initial Ballot Test (Q5) Final Ballot Test (Q11) Item 11.c. - Page 33 Final Ballot Test at Lower RateTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 26City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F INAL BALLOT TEST AT LOWER RATE The ballot language tested throughout the survey indicated that the measure would increase the local sales tax rate by one cent and be used to fund general city services. Voters who did not support the proposed measure at the Final Ballot Test (Question 11) were subsequently asked if they would support the measure if the rate were set at a lower amount: one-half cent. As shown in Figure 15, lowering the tax rate to one-half cent generated a modest amount of additional support for the proposed measure. An additional 8% of voters indicated they would support the measure if the tax rate were lowered to one-half cent, although nearly all of the addi- tional support for the measure was ‘soft’ (probably yes). Question 12 What if the measure I just described raised the sales tax by a lower amount: one- half cent? Would you vote yes or no on the measure? FIGURE 15 FINAL BALLOT TEST AT ONE-HALF CENT Definitely yes 1.0 Def, prob yes @ one cent (Q11) 55.4 Probably yes 7.0 Probably no 12.5 Not sure 6.1 Definitely no 15.8 Prefer not to answer 2.1 Item 11.c. - Page 34 Background & DemographicsTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 27City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B ACKGROUND & DEMOGRAPHICS TABLE 8 DEMOGRAPHICS OF SAMPLE In addition to questions directly related to the proposed measure, the study collected basic demographic informa- tion about respondents and their households. Some of this information was gathered during the interview, although much of it was collected from the voter file. The profile of the likely November 2020 voter sample used for this study is shown in Table 8. Total Respondents 541 Years in Arroyo Grande (Q1) Less than 5 16.3 5 to 9 17.1 10 to 14 13.4 15 or more 52.4 Not sure / Prefer not to answer 0.7 Fiscal Management (Q13) Excellent, good 43.7 Fair 28.9 Poor, very poor 13.7 Prefer not to answer 13.8 Child in Hsld (Q14) Yes 27.2 No 70.0 Prefer not to answer 2.9 Direction of Country (Q15) Right direction 28.8 Wrong direction 56.5 Not sure / Prefer not to answer 14.7 Homeowner on Voter File Yes 67.9 No 32.1 Age 18 to 29 8.1 30 to 39 10.9 40 to 49 15.0 50 to 64 27.7 65 or older 38.4 Registration Year Since Nov 16 7.7 Jun 10 to <Nov 16 15.0 Jun 04 to <Jun 10 12.5 Before June 04 64.8 Party Democrat 35.0 Republican 38.7 Other / DTS 26.4 Household Party Type Single dem 14.4 Dual dem 10.2 Single rep 12.9 Dual rep 16.3 Other 16.8 Mixed 29.4 Likely to Vote by Mail Yes 86.3 No 13.7 Likely Nov 2019 Voter Yes 78.6 No 21.4 Likely Mar 2020 Voter Yes 87.2 No 12.8 Gender Male 46.8 Female 48.2 Prefer not to answer 5.0 Item 11.c. - Page 35 MethodologyTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 28City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M ETHODOLOGY The following sections outline the methodology used in the study, as well as the motivation for using certain techniques. QUESTIONNAIRE DEVELOPMENT Dr. McLarney of True North Research worked closely with the City of Arroyo Grande to develop a questionnaire that covered the topics of interest and avoided possible sources of systematic measurement error, including position-order effects, wording effects, response-category effects, scaling effects, and priming. Several questions included multiple individual items. Because asking items in a set order can lead to a systematic position bias in responses, items were asked in random order for each respondent. Some of the questions asked in this study were presented only to a subset of respondents. For example, only individuals who did not support the sales tax or were unsure at the Final Ballot Test (Question 11) were asked if they would support the measure at a lower tax rate (Question 12). The questionnaire included with this report (see Questionnaire & Toplines on page 31) iden- tifies the skip patterns that were used during the interview to ensure that each respondent received the appropriate questions. PROGRAMMING & PRE-TEST Prior to fielding the survey, the questionnaire was CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) programmed to assist interviewers when conduct- ing telephone interviews. The CATI program automatically navigates skip patterns, randomizes the appropriate question items, and alerts the interviewer to certain types of keypunching mis- takes should they occur. The survey was also programmed into a passcode-protected online sur- vey application to allow online participation for sampled voters. The integrity of the questionnaire was pre-tested internally by True North and by dialing into voter households in the City prior to formally beginning the survey. SAMPLE The survey was administered to a random sample of 541 registered voters in the City likely to participate in the November 2020 election. Consistent with the profile of this uni- verse, the sample was stratified into clusters, each representing a combination of age, gender, and household party-type. Individuals were then randomly selected based on their profile into an appropriate cluster. This method ensures that if a person of a particular profile refuses to partic- ipate in the study, they are replaced by an individual who shares their same profile. STATISTICAL MARGIN OF ERROR By using the probability-based sampling design noted above, True North ensured that the final sample was representative of voters in the City who are likely to participate in the November 2020 election. The results of the sample can thus be used to estimate the opinions of all voters likely to participate in this election. Because not all voters participated in the study, however, the results have what is known as a statistical margin of error due to sampling. The margin of error refers to the difference between what was found in the survey of 541 voters for a particular question and what would have been found if all 10,729 likely November 2020 voters identified in the City had been surveyed for the study. Item 11.c. - Page 36 MethodologyTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 29City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Figure 16 provides a graphic plot of the maximum margin of error in this study. The maximum margin of error for a dichotomous percentage result occurs when the answers are evenly split such that 50% provide one response and 50% provide the alternative response. For this survey, the maximum margin of error is ± 4.1%. FIGURE 16 MAXIMUM MARGIN OF ERROR DUE TO SAMPLING Within this report, figures and tables show how responses to certain questions varied by sub- groups such as age, gender, and partisan affiliation. Figure 16 is thus useful for understanding how the maximum margin of error for a percentage estimate will grow as the number of individ- uals asked a question (or in a particular subgroup) shrinks. Because the margin of error grows exponentially as the sample size decreases, the reader should use caution when generalizing and interpreting the results for small subgroups. RECRUITING & DATA COLLECTION The survey followed a mixed-method design that employed multiple recruiting methods (telephone and email) and multiple data collection meth- ods (telephone and online). Telephone interviews averaged 16 minutes in length and were con- ducted during weekday evenings (5:30PM to 9PM) and on weekends (10AM to 5PM). It is standard practice not to call during the day on weekdays because most working adults are unavailable and thus calling during those hours would likely bias the sample. Voters recruited via email were assigned a unique passcode to ensure that only voters who received an invitation could access the online survey site, and that each voter could complete the survey only one time. During the data collection period, an email reminder notice was also sent to encourage participation among those who had yet to take the survey. A total of 541 surveys were completed between November 11 and November 21, 2019. Sample of 541 Likely November 2020 Voters ± 4.1% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Sample Size (Number of Respondents)Margin of ErrorItem 11.c. - Page 37 ---1------7------,------1------------T------ - - - - - ----t-- - - - -t-- - - - --1-- - - - - - - - - - -+-- - - - --------+------! - - --I-- - - - -l-- - - - --1-- - - - - - - - - - -+-- - - - --------+------1 I CJ I I ______ __l ______ j - - - - -_I - - - - - - I ______ I _____ _ ------I _____ _ I I I I -------------------------------------------- ' ' I ' MethodologyTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 30City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DATA PROCESSING Data processing consisted of checking the data for errors or inconsis- tencies, coding and recoding responses, weighting, and preparing frequency analyses and cross- tabulations. ROUNDING Numbers that end in 0.5 or higher are rounded up to the nearest whole num- ber, whereas numbers that end in 0.4 or lower are rounded down to the nearest whole number. These same rounding rules are also applied, when needed, to arrive at numbers that include a decimal place in constructing figures and tables. Occasionally, these rounding rules lead to small discrepancies in the first decimal place when comparing tables and charts for a given question. Due to rounding, some figures and narrative include numbers that add to more than or less than 100%. Item 11.c. - Page 38 Questionnaire & ToplinesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 31City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q UESTIONNAIRE & TOPLINES True North Research, Inc. © 2019 Page 1 City of Arroyo Grande Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey Final Toplines (n=541) November 11, 2019 Section 1: Introduction to Study Hi, may I please speak to _____. My name is _____, and Im calling on behalf of TNR, an independent public opinion research firm. Were conducting a survey of voters about important issues in Arroyo Grande (Uh-ROY-yo GRAWN-day) and Id like to get your opinions. If needed: This is a survey about important issues in your community. Im NOT trying to sell anything and I wont ask for a donation. If needed: The survey should take about 12 minutes to complete. If needed: If now is not a convenient time, can you let me know a better time so I can call back? If the person asks why you need to speak to the listed person or if they ask to participate instead, explain: For statistical purposes, at this time the survey must only be completed by this particular individual. If the person says they are an elected official or is somehow associated with the survey, politely explain that this survey is designed to measure the opinions of those not closely associated with the study, thank them for their time, and terminate the interview. Section 2: Quality of Life & City Services Id like to begin by asking you a few questions about what it is like to live in Arroyo Grande. Q1 How long have you lived in Arroyo Grande? 1 Less than 1 year 1% 2 1 to 4 years 16% 3 5 to 9 years 17% 4 10 to 14 years 13% 5 15 years or longer 52% 99 Prefer not to answer 1% Q2 How would you rate the overall quality of life in Arroyo Grande? Would you say it is excellent, good, fair, poor or very poor? 1 Excellent 42% 2 Good 50% 3 Fair 7% 4 Poor 1% 5 Very Poor 0% 98 Not sure 0% 99 Prefer not to answer 0% Item 11.c. - Page 39 A uENORTH 1,r RESEARCH Questionnaire & ToplinesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 32City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . City of Arroyo Grande Survey November 2019 True North Research, Inc. © 2019 Page 2 Q3 If the city government could change one thing to make Arroyo Grande a better place to live now and in the future, what change would you like to see? Verbatim responses recorded and later grouped into categories shown below. Not sure, nothing comes to mind 16% Improve streets, roads, infrastructure 9% Limit growth, development, preserve small town feel 9% Provide affordable housing 8% Reduce traffic congestion 7% No changes needed / Everything is fine 7% Address homeless issues, poverty 5% Improve budgeting, spending 5% Reduce taxes, fees 4% Provide more dining, shopping opportunities 4% Address water-related issues 4% Add more safer bike, walking trails, lanes 4% Improve Brisco freeway access 4% Improve public safety, police services 3% Improve zoning laws, building permit process 3% Enforce traffic laws 3% Beautify city, landscaping 3% Improve, provide additional parks, rec facilities 2% Provide additional activities, events for all ages 2% Reduce cost of living 2% Improve city planning 2% Improve government, leadership, transparency 2% Improve economy, jobs 2% Q4 Generally speaking, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the job the City of Arroyo Grande is doing to provide city services? Get answer, then ask: Would that be very (satisfied/dissatisfied) or somewhat (satisfied/dissatisfied)? 1 Very satisfied 29% 2 Somewhat satisfied 51% 3 Somewhat dissatisfied 10% 4 Very dissatisfied 4% 98 Not sure 5% 99 Prefer not to answer 0% Item 11.c. - Page 40 Questionnaire & ToplinesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 33City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . City of Arroyo Grande Survey November 2019 True North Research, Inc. © 2019 Page 3 Section 3: Initial Ballot Test Next year, voters in Arroyo Grande may be asked to vote on a local ballot measure. Let me read you a summary of the measure. Q5 To provide funding for general city services in Arroyo Grande, including: Police patrols, drug and crime prevention Fire, emergency medical, and 9-1-1 emergency response Street, sidewalk, and pothole maintenance Addressing impacts from homelessness And parks, recreation, childcare, and senior programs shall an ordinance establishing a one cent sales tax be adopted, providing approximately 4 million dollars annually for city services until ended by voters that cant be taken by the State, and requiring citizen oversight and all funds controlled locally? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? Get answer, then ask: Would that be definitely (yes/no) or probably (yes/no)? 1 Definitely yes 24% Skip to Q7 2 Probably yes 33% Skip to Q7 3 Probably no 13% Ask Q6 4 Definitely no 20% Ask Q6 98 Not sure 10% Ask Q6 99 Prefer not to answer 1% Skip to Q7 Q6 Is there a particular reason why you do not support or are unsure about the measure I just described? If yes, ask: Please briefly describe your reason. Verbatim responses recorded and later grouped into categories shown below. Money is misspent, mismanaged 28% Taxes, already too high 26% Need more information 19% Money will go to employees/union pensions, salaries 8% Other ways to be funded 6% Do not trust Government 5% City has enough money 4% Other higher priorities in community 3% Cost too high and/or duration too long 3% Not sure, no particular reason 3% Mentioned past ballot measure 2% City is okay as-is, no need for more money 1% Item 11.c. - Page 41 Questionnaire & ToplinesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 34City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . City of Arroyo Grande Survey November 2019 True North Research, Inc. © 2019 Page 4 Section 4: Services Q7 The measure weve been discussing will provide funding for a variety of services in your community. If the measure passes, would you favor or oppose using some of the money to: _____, or do you not have an opinion? Get answer, if favor or oppose, then ask: Would that be strongly (favor/oppose) or somewhat (favor/oppose)? Randomize Strongly Favor Somewhat Favor Somewhat Oppose Strongly Oppose Not sure Prefer not to answer A Provide police services, including neighborhood police patrols, crime investigations and neighborhood code enforcement 44% 30% 10% 8% 7% 1% B Reduce drug-related crimes 41% 26% 13% 8% 10% 3% C Provide fire protection and emergency medical response services 57% 25% 5% 6% 6% 2% D Provide quick responses to 9-1-1 emergencies 56% 23% 6% 5% 8% 2% E Maintain local streets and repair potholes 63% 25% 3% 3% 4% 2% F Repair and maintain public buildings and infrastructure including sidewalks, curbs, flood prevention infrastructure, and storm drains 52% 33% 5% 3% 5% 1% G Maintain parks and recreation facilities including Soto Sports complex, courts, fields, playgrounds, and community centers 45% 38% 7% 5% 4% 1% H Keep public areas clean and free of graffiti 46% 33% 8% 5% 6% 1% I Provide early childhood education programs and quality childcare services 29% 30% 18% 11% 9% 3% J Address the impacts of homelessness 40% 30% 9% 11% 8% 2% K Promote economic development to attract new employers and good paying jobs to the city 35% 32% 14% 9% 8% 2% L Provide community events that promote a sense of identity and place, health and wellness, and community celebration 25% 35% 17% 12% 9% 2% Item 11.c. - Page 42 Questionnaire & ToplinesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 35City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . City of Arroyo Grande Survey November 2019 True North Research, Inc. © 2019 Page 5 Section 5: Positive Arguments What Id like to do now is tell you what some people are saying about the measure weve been discussing. Q8 Supporters of the measure say: _____. Do you think this is a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not at all convincing reason to SUPPORT the measure? Randomize Very Convincing Somewhat Convincing Not At All Convincing Don t Believe Not sure Prefer not to answer A There will be a clear system of accountability including independent citizen oversight and annual reports to the community to ensure that the money is spent properly. 31% 31% 18% 13% 3% 3% B All money raised by the measure will be used to fund essential services and facilities here in Arroyo Grande. By law, it cant be taken away by the State. 36% 31% 16% 8% 5% 4% C Fast emergency response times for 9-1-1 calls are critical for saving lives and property. This measure will ensure that we have enough police officers, firefighters, and other emergency personnel to respond quickly to 9- 1-1 emergencies. 32% 38% 15% 7% 4% 3% D With the State mandating early parole for prisoners, more and more criminals are being released into our city and county. This measure provides the funds we need to combat crime in our community. 17% 31% 31% 14% 3% 4% E The funding raised by this measure will allow the City to keep up with basic repairs and maintenance to public facilities, storm drains, streets, and sidewalks. If we dont take care of it now, it will be a lot more expensive to repair in the future. 33% 39% 14% 7% 3% 4% F By keeping our city safe, clean and well- maintained, this measure will help protect our property values and keep Arroyo Grande a great place to live. 31% 35% 22% 7% 2% 3% G About half of the money raised by the sales tax will come from non-residents and tourists who visit our community. This measure will make sure they pay their fair share for the facilities and services they use while visiting our city. 36% 32% 17% 9% 3% 3% Item 11.c. - Page 43 Questionnaire & ToplinesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 36City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . City of Arroyo Grande Survey November 2019 True North Research, Inc. © 2019 Page 6 H This measure will help fund the economic development programs the City needs to attract new employers and good paying jobs to Arroyo Grande 16% 36% 28% 12% 4% 4% I The City of Arroyo Grande has been fiscally responsible. Over the past 10 years, it has cut staff by 20%, worked to reform and control pension costs, deferred maintenance projects, and cut back on services. Even with these cost-cutting efforts, however, the City needs an additional 3 million dollars per year to maintain the quality of services and facilities. There is no more room to cut if we want to maintain the quality of life in our community. We need to support this measure. 29% 32% 17% 12% 4% 5% J High quality parks, open spaces, sports fields, and recreation programs help keep kids healthy, active, and away from drugs, gangs and crime. 31% 37% 19% 7% 3% 3% K This measure will provide the funding needed to avoid deep cuts in all service areas, including police, fire protection, 9-1-1 emergency response times, the maintenance of streets, parks and public facilities, as well as programs for youth and seniors. 32% 32% 18% 11% 3% 4% Section 6: Interim Ballot Test Sometimes people change their mind about a measure once they have more information about it. Now that you have heard a bit more about the measure, let me read you a summary of it again. Q9 To provide funding for general city services in Arroyo Grande, including: Police patrols, drug and crime prevention Fire, emergency medical, and 9-1-1 emergency response Street, sidewalk, and pothole maintenance Addressing impacts from homelessness And parks, recreation, childcare, and senior programs shall an ordinance establishing a one cent sales tax be adopted, providing approximately 4 million dollars annually for city services until ended by voters that cant be taken by the State, and requiring citizen oversight and all funds controlled locally? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? Get answer, then ask: Would that be definitely (yes/no) or probably (yes/no)? 1 Definitely yes 28% 2 Probably yes 31% 3 Probably no 13% 4 Definitely no 16% 98 Not sure 11% 99 Prefer not to answer 0% Item 11.c. - Page 44 Questionnaire & ToplinesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 37City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . City of Arroyo Grande Survey November 2019 True North Research, Inc. © 2019 Page 7 Section 7: Negative Arguments Next, let me tell you what opponents of the measure are saying. Q10 Opponents of the measure say: _____. Do you think this is a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not at all convincing reason to OPPOSE the measure? Randomize Very Convincing Somewhat Convincing Not At All Convincing Don t Believe Not sure Prefer not to answer A Taxes are already too high we cant afford another tax increase. This is especially true for seniors and others on fixed-incomes. 37% 30% 23% 4% 3% 3% B City employees are making too much money in salary, pensions and benefits thats the problem. The City needs to tighten its belt before asking residents to pay more taxes. 23% 28% 31% 10% 4% 3% C We already pay a half-cent sales tax for city services. Now they want more money? Thats not fair to taxpayers. 27% 32% 31% 6% 3% 2% D There are no guarantees on how funds will be spent, which means the City can divert the money to pet projects. The City government cant be trusted with our tax dollars. 33% 30% 23% 7% 4% 3% Only odd clusters receive item E. E This tax will last forever. There is no expiration date. 31% 25% 27% 6% 7% 3% Item 11.c. - Page 45 Questionnaire & ToplinesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 38City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . City of Arroyo Grande Survey November 2019 True North Research, Inc. © 2019 Page 8 Section 8: Final Ballot Test Now that you have heard a bit more about the measure, let me read you a summary of it one more time. Q11 To provide funding for general city services in Arroyo Grande, including: Police patrols, drug and crime prevention Fire, emergency medical, and 9-1-1 emergency response Street, sidewalk, and pothole maintenance Addressing impacts from homelessness And parks, recreation, childcare, and senior programs shall an ordinance establishing a one cent sales tax be adopted, providing approximately 4 million dollars annually for city services until ended by voters that cant be taken by the State, and requiring citizen oversight and all funds controlled locally? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? Get answer, then ask: Would that be definitely (yes/no) or probably (yes/no)? 1 Definitely yes 27% Skip to Q13 2 Probably yes 28% Skip to Q13 3 Probably no 15% Ask Q12 4 Definitely no 18% Ask Q12 98 Not sure 10% Ask Q12 99 Prefer not to answer 2% Skip to Q13 Q12 What if the measure I just described raised the sales tax by a lower amount: one-half cent? Would you vote yes or no on the measure? Get answer, then ask: Would that be definitely (yes/no) or probably (yes/no)? Def, prob yes @ one cent (Q11) 55% 1 Definitely yes 1% 2 Probably yes 7% 3 Probably no 12% 4 Definitely no 16% 98 Not sure 6% 99 Prefer not to answer 2% Item 11.c. - Page 46 Questionnaire & ToplinesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 39City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . City of Arroyo Grande Survey November 2019 True North Research, Inc. © 2019 Page 9 Section 9: Background & Demographics Thank you so much for your participation. I have just two background questions for statistical purposes. Q13 In your opinion, has the City of Arroyo Grande done an excellent, good, fair, poor or very poor job of managing its financial resources? 1 Excellent 4% 2 Good 40% 3 Fair 29% 4 Poor 9% 5 Very poor 5% 98 Not Sure 12% 99 Prefer not to answer 2% Q14 Do you have children under the age of 18 living in your household? 1 Yes 27% 2 No 70% 99 Prefer not to answer 3% Q15 Over the past two years, do you think the United States has been heading in the right direction or wrong direction? 1 Right direction 29% 2 Wrong direction 56% 98 Not sure 7% 99 Prefer not to answer 8% Those are all of the questions that I have for you. Thanks so much for participating in this important survey. Post-Interview & Sample Items S1 Gender 1 Male 47% 2 Female 48% 3 Prefer not to answer 5% Item 11.c. - Page 47 Questionnaire & ToplinesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 40City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . City of Arroyo Grande Survey November 2019 True North Research, Inc. © 2019 Page 10 S2 Party 1 Democrat 35% 2 Republican 39% 3 Other 4% 4 DTS 22% S3 Age on Voter File 1 18 to 29 8% 2 30 to 39 11% 3 40 to 49 15% 4 50 to 64 28% 5 65 or older 38% S4 Registration Date 1 Since Nov 2016 8% 2 Jun 2010 to before Nov 2016 15% 3 Jun 2004 to before Jun 2010 12% 4 Before June 2004 65% S5 Household Party Type 1 Single Dem 14% 2 Dual Dem 10% 3 Single Rep 13% 4 Dual Rep 16% 5 Single Other 9% 6 Dual Other 8% 7 Dem & Rep 7% 8 Dem & Other 10% 9 Rep & Other 10% 0 Mixed (Dem + Rep + Other) 3% S6 Homeowner on Voter File 1 Yes 68% 2 No 32% Item 11.c. - Page 48 Questionnaire & ToplinesTrue North Research, Inc. © 2019 41City of Arroyo Grande . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . City of Arroyo Grande Survey November 2019 True North Research, Inc. © 2019 Page 11 S7 Likely to Vote by Mail 1 Yes 86% 2 No 14% S8 Likely November 2019 Voter 1 Yes 79% 2 No 21% S9 Likely March 2020 Voter 1 Yes 87% 2 No 13% S10 Likely November 2020 Voter 1 Yes 100% 2 No 0% Item 11.c. - Page 49 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Item 11.c. - Page 50