CC 2020-01-28_11c Voter Opinion Survey Results for Potential FutureVoter Opinion Survey
Conducted for the
City of Arroyo Grande
Presented By
Timothy McLarney Ph.D.
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Determine if a general sales tax measure is feasible
Identify how to create a measure consistent with community priorities
Gather information needed for communications & outreach
Purpose of Study
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Conducted November 11th to November 21st, 2019
Random sample: 541 Arroyo Grande voters likely to participate in November 2020 election
Mixed-Method approach
Recruited via phone and email
Data collection via phone and online
16-minute average interview length
Overall margin of error is ± 4.1%
Methodology of Study
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Quality of life
Q2 How would you rate the overall quality of life in Arroyo Grande? Would you say it is excellent, good, fair, poor or very poor?
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Changes to improve city
Q3 If the city government could change one thing to make Arroyo Grande a better place to live now and in the future, what change would you like to see?
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Satisfaction with City Services
Q4 Generally speaking, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the job the City of Arroyo Grande is doing to provide city services?
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Initial ballot test
To provide funding for general city services in Arroyo Grande, including:
Police patrols, drug and crime prevention
Fire, emergency medical, and 9-1-1 emergency response
Street, sidewalk, and pothole maintenance
Addressing impacts from homelessness
And parks, recreation, childcare, and senior programs
shall an ordinance establishing a one cent sales tax be adopted, providing approximately 4 million dollars annually for city services until ended by voters that can’t be taken by the
State, and requiring citizen oversight and all funds controlled locally? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure?
Q5 Next year, voters in Arroyo Grande may be asked to vote on a local ballot measure. Let me read you a summary of the measure:
To provide funding for general city services in Arroyo Grande, including:
Police patrols, drug and crime prevention
Fire, emergency medical, and 9-1-1 emergency response
Street, sidewalk, and pothole maintenance
Addressing impacts from homelessness
And parks, recreation, childcare, and senior programs
shall an ordinance establishing a one cent sales tax be adopted, providing approximately 4 million dollars annually for city services until ended by voters that can’t be taken by the
State, and requiring citizen oversight and all funds controlled locally?
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure?
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Initial ballot test
Q5 Next year, voters in Arroyo Grande may be asked to vote on a local ballot measure. Let me read you a summary of the measure:
To provide funding for general city services in Arroyo Grande, including:
Police patrols, drug and crime prevention
Fire, emergency medical, and 9-1-1 emergency response
Street, sidewalk, and pothole maintenance
Addressing impacts from homelessness
And parks, recreation, childcare, and senior programs
shall an ordinance establishing a one cent sales tax be adopted, providing approximately 4 million dollars annually for city services until ended by voters that can’t be taken by the
State, and requiring citizen oversight and all funds controlled locally?
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure?
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Services
Q7 The measure we’ve been discussing will provide funding for a variety of services in your community.
If the measure passes, would you favor or oppose using some of the money to: _____, or do you not have an opinion?
E Maintain local streets and repair potholes
F Repair and maintain public buildings and infrastructure including sidewalks, curbs, flood prevention infrastructure, and storm drains
G Maintain parks and recreation facilities including Soto Sports complex, courts, fields, playgrounds, and community centers
C Provide fire protection and emergency medical response services
H Keep public areas clean and free of graffiti
D Provide quick responses to 9-1-1 emergencies
A Provide police services, including neighborhood police patrols, crime investigations and neighborhood code enforcement
J Address the impacts of homelessness
K Promote economic development to attract new employers and good paying jobs to the city
B Reduce drug-related crimes
L Provide community events that promote a sense of identity and place, health and wellness, and community celebration
I Provide early childhood education programs and quality childcare services
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Positive arguments
Q8 What I’d like to do now is tell you what some people are saying about the measure we’ve been discussing. Supporters of the measure say: _____. Do you think this is a very convincing,
somewhat convincing, or not at all convincing reason to SUPPORT the measure?
E The funding raised by this measure will allow the City to keep up with basic repairs and maintenance to public facilities, storm drains, streets, and sidewalks. If we don't take care
of it now, it will be a lot more expensive to repair in the future.
C Fast emergency response times for 9-1-1 calls are critical for saving lives and property. This measure will ensure that we have enough police officers, firefighters, and other emergency
personnel to respond quickly to 9-1-1 emergencies.
J High quality parks, open spaces, sports fields, and recreation programs help keep kids healthy, active, and away from drugs, gangs and crime.
G About half of the money raised by the sales tax will come from non-residents and tourists who visit our community. This measure will make sure they pay their fair share for the facilities
and services they use while visiting our city.
B All money raised by the measure will be used to fund essential services and facilities here in Arroyo Grande. By law, it can't be taken away by the State.
F By keeping our city safe, clean and well-maintained, this measure will help protect our property values and keep Arroyo Grande a great place to live.
K This measure will provide the funding needed to avoid deep cuts in all service areas, including police, fire protection, 9-1-1 emergency response times, the maintenance of streets,
parks and public facilities, as well as programs for youth and seniors.
A There will be a clear system of accountability including independent citizen oversight and annual reports to the community to ensure that the money is spent properly.
I The City of Arroyo Grande has been fiscally responsible. Over the past 10 years, it has cut staff by 20%, worked to reform and control pension costs, deferred maintenance projects,
and cut back on services. Even with these cost-cutting efforts, however, the City needs an additional 3 million dollars per year to maintain the quality of services and facilities.
There is no more room to cut if we want to maintain the quality of life in our community. We need to support this measure.
H This measure will help fund the economic development programs the City needs to attract new employers and good paying jobs to Arroyo Grande
D With the State mandating early parole for prisoners, more and more criminals are being released into our city and county. This measure provides the funds we need to combat crime in
our community.
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INTERIM BALLOT TEST
Q9 Sometimes people change their mind about a measure once they have more information about it. Now that you have heard a bit more about the measure, let me read you a summary of it
again:
To provide funding for general city services in Arroyo Grande, including:
Police patrols, drug and crime prevention
Fire, emergency medical, and 9-1-1 emergency response
Street, sidewalk, and pothole maintenance
Addressing impacts from homelessness
And parks, recreation, childcare, and senior programs
shall an ordinance establishing a one cent sales tax be adopted, providing approximately 4 million dollars annually for city services until ended by voters that can’t be taken by the
State, and requiring citizen oversight and all funds controlled locally?
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure?
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NEGATIVE ARGUMENTS
Next, let me tell you what opponents of the measure are saying.
Q10 Opponents of the measure say: _____. Do you think this is a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not at all convincing reason to OPPOSE the measure?
A Taxes are already too high - we can't afford another tax increase. This is especially true for seniors and others on fixed-incomes.
D There are no guarantees on how funds will be spent, which means the City can divert the money to pet projects. The City government can't be trusted with our tax dollars.
C We already pay a half-cent sales tax for city services. Now they want more money? That's not fair to taxpayers.
E This tax will last forever. There is no expiration date.
B City employees are making too much money in salary, pensions and benefits - that's the problem. The City needs to tighten its belt before asking residents to pay more taxes.
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Final ballot test
Q11 Now that you have heard a bit more about the measure, let me read you a summary of it one more time:
To provide funding for general city services in Arroyo Grande, including:
Police patrols, drug and crime prevention
Fire, emergency medical, and 9-1-1 emergency response
Street, sidewalk, and pothole maintenance
Addressing impacts from homelessness
And parks, recreation, childcare, and senior programs
shall an ordinance establishing a one cent sales tax be adopted, providing approximately 4 million dollars annually for city services until ended by voters that can’t be taken by the
State, and requiring citizen oversight and all funds controlled locally?
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure?
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Final ballot test at one-Half cent
Q12 What if the measure I just described raised the sales tax by a lower amount: one-half cent? Would you vote yes or no on the measure?
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Key conclusions
Is it feasible to move forward with a local sales tax measure? Yes.
Voters value the services they receive from the City of Arroyo Grande and wish to see these services maintained and improved.
Solid natural support for a local sales tax measure to fund city services and projects (57%)
Popular services and projects
Strong positive arguments
All ballot tests are above the simple majority (50% +1) required for passage under current law, even after testing negative arguments
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Poll is a snapshot in time, not a crystal ball
Price Tag: Solid support for 1 cent measure. Reducing the tax rate does not significantly improve measure’s chance for voter approval.
Measure Type: Keep as general tax – broader appeal and requires a simple majority (not a super majority).
Service Priorities: Public works and public safety.
City Communications: Expand the conversation with the community to educate and build consensus on a proposal.
Independent Campaign: November 2020 is going to be a noisy election with crosscutting issues and ‘anti-tax’ initiatives. Need to bring A-Game communications and effort.
CONSIDERATIONS & Recommendations
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